1AC - Round 2


Table of Contents

Plan Text


The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba~’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports.


Contention 1: Sugar Ethanol Shift


Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol market is superior to American corn-based ethanol. It will slow the rate of climate change, pesticide use, and dead zones.
Specht 13
~~[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [[http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]]~~]

IV. Environmental Effects of Ethanol¶¶Assuming that Cuba is able to meet all
AND
to corn production and, thus, to the domestic ethanol industry. n68

Scenario 1: Water


Continued increases in U.S. corn-ethanol production will drain the Ogallala Aquifer—causing massive water shortages
Specht 13
~~[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [[http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]]~~]

Increased water consumption is another environmental consequence resulting fromthe expansion of corn production in Great
AND
and policy were changed to encourage the importation of sugarcane-based ethanol.


Drinking water is key to life on earth
Jackson and Carpenter 1
~~[Robert-Department of Biologyand Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke, Stephen-Center for Limnology, Universityof Wisconsin, Clifford Dahm, Diane McKnight-University ofNew Mexico,, Robert Naiman-University of Colorado, Sandra Postel-University of Washington, Steven Running, "Water in a Changing World,"Issues in Ecology, http://www.biology.duke.edu/jackson/issues9.pdf, Spring 2001~~]

Life on earth depends on the continuous flow of materials through the air, water
AND
particular basins and in individual watersheds is the key to sustainable water management.


Scenario 2: Climate Change


Global Warming is happening – most recent and best evidence concludes that it is human induced
Muller 7-28-2012 ~~[Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former MacArthur Foundation fellow, "The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic", http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all~~]

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate
AND
(CO2), measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice.


CO2 is the primary driver of climate change – outweighs all alt causes
Vertessy and Clark3-13-2012~~[Rob, Acting Director of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Megan, Chief Executive Officer at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, "State of the Climate 2012", http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831-http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831~~]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for about 60% of the effect from
AND
that the dominant cause of theobservedCO2 increase is the combustion of fossil fuels.



Global warming makes global agricultural production impossible – resulting in mass starvation
Potsdam Institute, 2012(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The overall conclusions of IPCC AR4 concerning food production and agriculture included the following:
AND
differently and food security is further challenged by a multitude of nonclimatic factors.


4 degrees of warming make sustaining biodiversity impossible – the impact is extinction
Potsdam Institute, 2012(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

Ecosystems and their species provide a range of important goods and services for human society
AND
ecosystems into a state unknown in human experience (Barnosky et al., 2012

4 degree warming is inevitable with current carbon usage trends – deceasing carbon emissions solve
Potsdam Institute, 2012(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The emission pledges made at the climate conventions in Copenhagen and Cancun, if fully
AND
to see a monthly summer temperature rise of more than 6°C.



Contention 2: Solvency


Cuban sugar based ethanol is essential to replace oil based fuel—it~’s the best solution for a transition away from oil-based fuel dependence—allowing access to the U.S. market is key
Specht 13
~~[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf~~]

"The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity
AND
, deserves much greater consideration and evaluation than it has thus far received.


And, joint ventures jumpstart the Cuban ethanol energy industry
Alonso-Pippo et al. 8
~~[Walfrido Alonso-Pippo- former Vice-President of the Solar Energy Department at the University of Havanaand a former member of the Cuban National Renewable Energies Front, where he was a specialist in biomass energy use, Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pierto Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, "Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case," Energy Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 6, June 2008, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508000840-http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508000840~~]

The rise of the price of oilabove 80USD/bbl. provides an incentive for
AND
movement toward the development of sugarcane as a viable alternative source of energy.

Sugar ethanol importation from Cuba is superior to alternatives and solves impacts from domestic corn ethanol production—no environmental damage
Specht 13
~~[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [[http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]]~~]

B. Environmental Effects of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol¶If future legislation does not
AND
to promote the importation of Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol should be encouraged.




Contention 3: Impact Debate


No great power war – interdependence, democracy , deterrence
Robb 2012
~~[Doug, US Navy Lieutenant, "Now Hear This – Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over", May, 5/2012 ~~[Lieutenant, US Navy, "", US Naval Institute, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over-http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over~~]
In addition to geopolitical and diplomacy issues, globalization continues to transform the world.
AND
a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable.

Miscalc is impossible
Quinlan 2009
~~[Sir Michael, visiting professor at King~’s College London, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and former senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, "Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects," Oxford University Press~~]
One special form of miscalculationappeared sporadically in the speculations of academic commentators, though it
AND
if necessary—that there was no misinterpretation of its conventionally armed launch.
Intervening actions check escalation
Trachtenberg 2000
(Prof of History, Pennsylvania (Marc, The "Accidental War" Question, http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/inadv(1).pdf)
The second point has to do with how much risk there really is in situations
AND
the system to keep relatively minor provocations from leading directly to general war.

Nuclear war doesn~’t cause extinction
Socol 2011
Yehoshua(Ph.D.), an inter-disciplinary physicist, is an expert in electro-optics, high-energy physics and applications, and material science and Moshe Yanovskiy, Jan 2,"Nuclear Proliferation and Democracy", http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/nuclear_proliferation_and_demo.html, CMR
Nuclear proliferation should no longer be treated as an unthinkable nightmare; it is likely
AND
reality will most probably contain fewer nuclear-possessing states than the former.


1AC - Round 4&5



Plan Text


The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba~’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports.


Contention 1: Sugar Ethanol Shift


Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol market is superior to American corn-based ethanol. It will slow the rate of climate change, pesticide use, and dead zones.

Specht 13
~~[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [[http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]]~~]

IV. Environmental Effects of Ethanol¶¶Assuming that Cuba is able to meet all
AND
to corn production and, thus, to the domestic ethanol industry. n68

Scenario 1: Monoculture


Domestic corn-ethanol production is the root of massive species loss and ecosystem destruction in the Great Plains

Specht 13
~~[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [[http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]]~~]

Incentivizing farmers to grow consecutive corn crops instead of alternating with soybean crops is only
AND
to clean as the grasslands and wetlands that once filtered contaminants disappear. n100

Monoculture model independently causes extinction

Leahy 7
~~[Stephen- international environmental journalist, "Biodiversity: Farming Will Make or Break the Food Chain", Inter Press Service, 5-3-07,http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/05/03/945/~~]

"If all agricultural lands adopt the industrial, monocultural model, there will be
AND
what the key cards are or how many lost species is too many.

Scenario 2: Climate Change


Global Warming is happening – most recent and best evidence concludes that it is human induced

Muller 7-28-2012 ~~[Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former MacArthur Foundation fellow, "The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic", http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all~~]

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate
AND
(CO2), measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice.


CO2 is the primary driver of climate change – outweighs all alt causes

Vertessy and Clark3-13-2012~~[Rob, Acting Director of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Megan, Chief Executive Officer at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, "State of the Climate 2012", http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831-http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831~~]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for about 60% of the effect from
AND
that the dominant cause of theobservedCO2 increase is the combustion of fossil fuels.



Global warming makes global agricultural production impossible – resulting in mass starvation

Potsdam Institute, 2012(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The overall conclusions of IPCC AR4 concerning food production and agriculture included the following:
AND
differently and food security is further challenged by a multitude of nonclimatic factors.


4 degrees of warming make sustaining biodiversity impossible – the impact is extinction

Potsdam Institute, 2012(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

Ecosystems and their species provide a range of important goods and services for human society
AND
ecosystems into a state unknown in human experience (Barnosky et al., 2012

4 degree warming is inevitable with current carbon usage trends – deceasing carbon emissions solve

Potsdam Institute, 2012(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The emission pledges made at the climate conventions in Copenhagen and Cancun, if fully
AND
to see a monthly summer temperature rise of more than 6°C.



Contention 2: Solvency


Cuban sugar based ethanol is essential to replace oil based fuel—it~’s the best solution for a transition away from oil-based fuel dependence—allowing access to the U.S. market is key

Specht 13
~~[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf~~]

"The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity
AND
, deserves much greater consideration and evaluation than it has thus far received.


And, joint ventures jumpstart the Cuban ethanol energy industry

Alonso-Pippo et al. 8
~~[Walfrido Alonso-Pippo- former Vice-President of the Solar Energy Department at the University of Havanaand a former member of the Cuban National Renewable Energies Front, where he was a specialist in biomass energy use, Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pierto Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, "Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case," Energy Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 6, June 2008, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508000840-http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508000840~~]

The rise of the price of oilabove 80USD/bbl. provides an incentive for
AND
movement toward the development of sugarcane as a viable alternative source of energy.

Sugar ethanol importation from Cuba is superior to alternatives and solves impacts from domestic corn ethanol production—no environmental damage

Specht 13
~~[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [[http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]]~~]

B. Environmental Effects of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol¶If future legislation does not
AND
to promote the importation of Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol should be encouraged.




Contention 3: Impact Debate


No great power war – interdependence, democracy , deterrence

Robb 2012
~~[Doug, US Navy Lieutenant, "Now Hear This – Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over", May, 5/2012 ~~[Lieutenant, US Navy, "", US Naval Institute, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over-http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over~~]
In addition to geopolitical and diplomacy issues, globalization continues to transform the world.
AND
a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable.

Miscalc is impossible

Quinlan 2009
~~[Sir Michael, visiting professor at King~’s College London, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and former senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, "Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects," Oxford University Press~~]
One special form of miscalculationappeared sporadically in the speculations of academic commentators, though it
AND
if necessary—that there was no misinterpretation of its conventionally armed launch.
Intervening actions check escalation
Trachtenberg 2000
(Prof of History, Pennsylvania (Marc, The "Accidental War" Question, http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/inadv(1).pdf)
The second point has to do with how much risk there really is in situations
AND
the system to keep relatively minor provocations from leading directly to general war.

Nuclear war doesn~’t cause extinction

Socol 2011
Yehoshua(Ph.D.), an inter-disciplinary physicist, is an expert in electro-optics, high-energy physics and applications, and material science and Moshe Yanovskiy, Jan 2,"Nuclear Proliferation and Democracy", http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/nuclear_proliferation_and_demo.html, CMR
Nuclear proliferation should no longer be treated as an unthinkable nightmare; it is likely
AND
reality will most probably contain fewer nuclear-possessing states than the former.

1NC - Semis

Off case


Algae


Text: The United States federal government should amend relevant definitions in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 to include algae-derived fuels eligible for all tax credits, subsidies, and price supports.


Amending the RFS to include price supports for algae spurs green crude production. This provides clean renewable fuel – solves warming and crop shift

Jason Pyle (Chief Executive Officer, Sapphire Energy) June 12 2008 "Renewable Fuels And Food Prices," CQ Congressional Testimony
First, let me thank the Committee for its leadership on alternative, renewable fuels
AND
crops, or other natural resources. Sapphire has turned sunlight into gasoline.

Politics


Obama political capital is key to compromises that allow passage – will bust out the hammer

Justin Sink 7/15 "Obama takes push for immigration reform to Spanish-language TV",
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/311065-obama-takes-push-for-immigration-reform-to-spanish-language-media
President Obama will look to intensify pressure on House Republicans to act on immigration reform
AND
that he shouldn~’t be involved in that discussion is foolish," McCain added.
Plan drains capital
LeoGrande, 12
William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf

The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie
AND
rarely happen unless the urgency of the problem forces policymakers to take action.
PC is key and finite
Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/20/in-interview-obama-says-he-has-a-year-to-get-stuff-done/-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/20/in-interview-obama-says-he-has-a-year-to-get-stuff-done/, CMR)
President Obama said Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term
AND
issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigration reform and gun control.


====Impact – Immigration reform decreases terror risk—multiple mechanisms====
Griswold 04 (Daniel, Senior Fellow @ CATO, Federal News Service, 4/1, lexis)
MR. DANIEL GRISWOLD: Thank you, Chairman Chambliss, and members of the
AND
and it would enhance the federal government~’s ability to wage war on terrorism.

Nuclear war—retaliation

Patrick F. Speice, "Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating the Current Liability Barrier to Bilateral U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Assistance Programs," WILLIAM %26 MARY LAW REVIEW v. 47, 2—06, p. 1437-1438.
Accordingly, there is a significant and ever-present risk that terrorists could acquire
AND
increasing the number of casualties and potentially triggering a full-scale nuclear conflict


China DA


China~’s current economic strategy is allowing them to outpace US influence in Latin America – plan reverses that by offering a "NO STRINGS ATTACHED" economic policy

Gallagher 6/18/13 – associate professor of international relations at Boston University (Kevin P, "Time for a U.S. Pivot to Latin America", http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?storyid=10035-http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?storyid=10035, CMR)
Increasingly, Latin American countries see China not as a rival but as a valuable
AND
. control, China offers up its loans come with few strings attached.

US-Sino competition risks open conflict

Ellis 6/6/13 – associate professor with the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies (R Evan, "China~’s New Backyard", http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/06/china_s_new_backyard_latin_america?page=full-http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/06/china_s_new_backyard_latin_america?page=full, CMR)
The challenge to Washington from China~’s presence in the region also extends beyond economics and
AND
represent potential assets in a global asymmetric warfare campaign against the United States.

Global nuclear war

Hunkovic 9 (Lee J, American Military University, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", [[http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/ Hunkovic.pdf-http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf]])
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate
AND
outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.


Case


Solvency


Cuban sugar ethanol will not hurt the U.S. corn industry

(Jonathan Specht- Washington University in St Louis, 2012, "Raising Cane: Sugar Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States", http://works.bepress.com/jonathan_specht/1)
Whether or not policy and law changes successfully encouraging the growth of a Cuban sugarcane
AND
Standard will provide a source of U.S. demand for ethanol.
Additionally, while exposing the domestic ethanol industry to competition from imported ethanol might
AND
fructose corn syrup), corn oil, corn starch, and biodegradable plastics.

Corn growth inevitable – india/china demand

(Jonathan Specht- Washington University in St Louis, 2012, "Raising Cane: Sugar Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States", http://works.bepress.com/jonathan_specht/1)
Even if corn-based ethanol production were to decline, U.S.
AND
demand for corn-based ethanol would not necessarily lead to low corn prices

US farmers will not shift to sugar – cannot grow it and subsidies

Voegele ~’09
(Erin Voegele, February 04, 2009, "Sugarcane Economics", http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/5345/sugarcane-economics)
Sugarcane has been grown in the U.S. for centuries even though land
AND
, ethanol producers in most areas simply wouldn~’t be able to afford it.



Warming


Warming is natural

BELL 11-3-2010 (Larry, Prof at U Houston, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/02/global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-opinions-columnists-larry-bell.html)
Yes, there is no doubt about it. The planet is experiencing a siege
AND
(1777), and Napoleon~’s, a frigid retreat from Russia (1812).


Negative feedbacks check the impact

DE FREITAS 1-5-2011 (Chris de Freitas is an associate professor in the school of environment at the University of Auckland, NZ Herald, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1%26objectid=10697845)
The degree of warming directly caused by the extra carbon dioxide is, by itself
AND
that support a theory or hypothesis. They are not resolved by ballot.


Sugarcane mills lead to high levels of air pollution

Eudel Eduardo Cepero ~’04 ("ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
FOR A CUBA IN TRANSITION" CTP, Cuba Transition Project, published 2004, http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/Research_Studies/ECepero.pdf-http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/Research_Studies/ECepero.pdf)

Air. Cuba~’s precarious air quality is nothing new. Available statistics¶ report a
AND
enforcing the rules and¶ in handling the claims to eliminate the problem.


SO2 causes warming- multiple feedback loops- all other studies fail because they don~’t assume other particles

Science Daily, 10 (Best Hope for Saving Arctic Sea Ice Is Cutting Soot Emissions, Say Researchers, July 30, 2010, [[http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100728092617.htm-http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100728092617.htm]])
The quickest, best way to slow the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice is
AND
, the NASA high-end computing program and the National Science Foundation.


SO2 causes acid rain

China Daily January 12, 2011 A hard rain is falling as acid erodes beauty http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/2011-01/12/content_11833224.htm
Official statistics show every drop of rain in Xiamen in the first half of 2010
AND
, said Wei Fusheng, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Engineering.


Turns biodiversity

Daily Trust March 31, 2010 Mustapha Suleiman Staff writer http://allafrica.com/stories/201004020440.html
Effects of acid rain on aquatic life: Apart from plants, acid rain also
AND
or brittle. Lack of calcium also causes deformed bones and weakened spines.


Yes war


Prefer specific scenarios - even if things make war more difficult it doesn~’t make it unthinkable

James Wood Forsyth, Professor, National Security Studies and Thomas E. Griffith Jr., Dean of Faculty and Academic Programs, National War College, "Through the Glass Darkly: The Unlikely Demise of Great-Power War," STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, Fall 2007, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA509123
The United States cannot prepare to put down any and all potential rivals. The
AND
-power war has a bright future, however tragic that might seem.


Monoculture



No impact—mass extinctions will be followed by recovery, not collapse

Michael Ruse (Philosopher and Author) August 24 2002 The Globe and Mail
Let me say straight out that this is the most egregiously mislabelled book I have
AND
a tempo of its own, apparently, and can continue despite disruptions..



1NC - Quarters


Russia Da


Russia pursuing agreement to drill the shelf – key to Russian oil growth—plan crowds Russia out

Snytkova 2013
~~[Maria Snytkova 3/1/2013 "Russia to supply Cuban oil to USA?",
http://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/01-03-2013/123941-russia_cuba_oil-0~~]
Many became highly concerned last week, when it was said that Russia was forgiving
AND
was not a single representative of the oil sector among the Russian delegation.

Russian access to Gulf oil key to their economy and broader influence

Ryan 2010
~~[Jane Van - former senior communications manager and new media advisor at the American Petroleum Institute (API), Mar 19, 2010, "Russia/Cuba Seeking Oil in the Gulf of Mexico", http://energytomorrow.org/blog/2010/march/russia-cuba-seeking-oil-in-the-gulf-of-mexico~~%23sthash.3IgSFW8u.dpuf-http://energytomorrow.org/blog/2010/march/russia-cuba-seeking-oil-in-the-gulf-of-mexico, TB~~]
America~’s "stuck in neutral" energy policy has just received another shot over the
AND
Missile Crisis, but it could signal a shift in America~’s stature abroad.

Russian economic deterioration leads terrorism and nuclear conflict resulting in extinction.

Sheldon Filger 2009 "Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction" May 10, 2009, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/russian-economy-faces-dis_b_201147.html-http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/russian-economy-faces-dis_b_201147.html~~]
In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree
AND
the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.


Spills CP


Text: The United States federal government should amend the Cuban Democracy Act of 1992 to allow for limited, spill-related coordination and communication with the Cuban government.


License US oil companies for spill related coordination and clean-up – CP solves the impact to any oil spill and does not loosen the embargo – that prevents a political backlash

Melissa Bert (a military fellow (U.S. Coast Guard) at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Blake Clayton (fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations) 2012 "Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill", http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515
The imminent drilling of Cuba~’s first offshore oil well raises the prospect of a large
AND
the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba.


Renewables


A. Uniqueness – Multiple issues with offshore drilling rigs of Cuba make it very likely that oil companies will not keep drilling there

Jeff Frank 05/29/13 Jeff Franks is the Reuters Chief Correspondent for Texas, based in Houston and Reporter. "Cuban oil hopes sputter as Russians give up for now on well" http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/cuba-oil-idUSL2N0EA00W20130529

There is also Cuba~’s history of failed wells, which makes it hard to compete
AND
It is going to be extremely challenging (for Cuba)," he said.

B. Link - The plan allows for US-Cuban oil cooperation

Benjamin 10 – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, 2010, Brookings Institution book, "Cuba~’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation"
Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly, after fifty years of enmity, there is a significant
AND
important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu.


C. Internal Link – Renewables are critical to transition away from fossil fuels – only way to solve climate change

Elaine K. Hart, Student Member IEEE, Eric D. Stoutenburg, Student Member IEEE, and Mark Z. Jacobson February 2012 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=%26arnumber=5876295%26tag=1

The potential of renewable energy sources to supply a large fraction of electric power demand
AND
contribute to supplying a fluctuating electricity demand remains an open area of research.


Warming causes disease spread

Adair 4-11-2012 (KIRSTEN ADAIR, CONTRIBUTING REPORTER for Daily Yale News, Wednesday, April 11, 2012, http://www.yaledailynews.com/news/2012/apr/11/global-warming-may-intensify-disease/)

There may be more to fear from global warming than environmental changes. According to
AND
the direct and indirect effects of climate change on dengue transmission in Colombia.


Emerging diseases cause extinction

Zimmerman and Zimmerman 1996 (Barry and David, both have M.S. degrees from Long Island University, Killer Germs, p 132) EDITED FOR GENDERED LANGUAGE

Then came AIDS…and Ebola and Lassa fever and Marburg and dengue fever.
AND
is the virus" (A Dancing Matrix, by Robin Marantz Hening.



Politics


Immigration reform will pass and it political capital is key

Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16 "Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration",
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931%26CategoryId=12395
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest
AND
," taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups.

Drains capital – Backlash and hostage taking on unrelated priority legislation is empirically proven, likely in future and specifically true for Rubio – Cuba policy is totally unique – this is the best link card you will ever read
LeoGrande, 12
William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf

The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie
AND
rarely happen unless the urgency of the problem forces policymakers to take action.

PC is key and finite
Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/20/in-interview-obama-says-he-has-a-year-to-get-stuff-done/-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/20/in-interview-obama-says-he-has-a-year-to-get-stuff-done/, CMR)
President Obama said Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term
AND
issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigration reform and gun control.


CIR is key to the economy and competitiveness

Green 7/2 - founder and president of FWD.us, an advocacy group created by technology leaders that promotes policies to keep the United States and its citizens competitive in a global economy (Joe, "House, knowledge economy needs immigrants", http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/opinion/green-immigration-reform/index.html-http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/opinion/green-immigration-reform/index.html, CMR)

Our country has changed a lot during those 27 years, but not — so
AND
reform to unlock those contributions and by doing so change millions of lives.

d.) Collapse of the US economic power causes nuclear war

Khalilzad 11 Zalmay was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, " The Economy and National Security", 2-8-11, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024-http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024, CMR

Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to
AND
, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.


Case



Solvency


Status quo solves – US inspections of rigs

Padgett 12 (Tim, "The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms Length Over Spill Prevention", 1/27, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)
On Christmas Eve, a massive, Chinese-made maritime oil rig, the
AND
, says the Cubans "seem very motivated to do the right thing."


Multiple alt causes –


A) Political views

Hanson and Lee 13 (Stephanie and Brianna – Council on Foreign Relations, "U.S.-Cuba Relations", 1/31, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113)
What is the main obstacle in U.S.-Cuban relations? A fundamental
AND
Morales, who have challenged U.S. policy in the region.

B) Human Rights, Guantanamo, and Cuban exiles

Hanson and Lee 13 (Stephanie and Brianna – Council on Foreign Relations, "U.S.-Cuba Relations", 1/31, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113)
What are the issues preventing normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations? Experts
AND
alienating a strong voting bloc in an important swing state in presidential elections.

C) The rest of the Embargo – the plan is only a fraction

Hanson 13 (Daniel – economics researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, "It~’s Time For The U.S. To End Its Senseless Embargo Of Cuba", 1/16, http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/01/16/its-time-for-the-u-s-to-end-its-senseless-embargo-of-cuba/)
While the embargo has been through several legal iterations in the intervening years, the
AND
in Cuba through economic sanctions, travel restrictions, and international legal penalties.

Taiwan-China relations are high

Cole 12 — Taipei-based journalist who focuses on military issues in Northeast Asia and in the Taiwan Strait (J. Michael, 9/3, "Taiwan Hedges its Bets on China," http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/09/03/taiwan-hedges-its-bets-against-china/)
By a number of yardsticks, relations in the Taiwan Strait today are the best
AND
coast guards are now held every other year since 2010, mostly for the

Econ


Data disproves hegemony impacts

Fettweis, 11 Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political Science, Tulane University, 9/26/11, Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO
It is perhaps worth noting that there is no evidence to support a direct relationship
AND
global policeman. Those who think otherwise base their view on faith alone.


Threat exaggerated—empirical record proves

Gregory D. Koblentz, Assistant Professor, Department of Public and International Affairs and Deputy Director, Biodefense Program, George Mason University, "Biosecurity Reconsidered," INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, Spring 2010, p. 96+, ASP.
The threat of bioterrorism, may not be as severe as some have portrayed it
AND
based on aerosol dissemination technology that are capable of causing mass casualties. 88

here~’s more ev – the Bioterror risk exaggerated – it~’s just a conspiracy

Birch ~’06 (Douglas — Sun foreign correspondent— Baltimore Sun – June 18th – lexis)
Despite the concern of many scientists, some bioweapons experts say the fears are overblown
AND
and abandoned, efforts to make germ weapons because the task was too difficult


regionalization


a. Decline spurs it, more stable than dominance

Leon T. Hadar, Cato Institute, "Welcome to the Post-Unipolar World: Great for the U.S. and for the Rest," HUFFINGTON POST, 7—8—10, [[http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11967-http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11967]]
Moreover, in the context of the evolving international system under which America is gradually
AND
the world, America could help itself and the rest of the world.

b. Solves terror, war, climate change

Krishnan Srinivasan, "International Conflict and Cooperation in the 21st Century," THE ROUND TABLE v. 98 n. 400, 2—09, pp. 37-47.
The new world order of the first half of the present century will be one
AND
ascendancy first regionally, then continentally and finally globally over all the others.

c. warming causes Extinction

Ronnie Cummins and Will Allen, Organic Consumers Association, "Climate Catastrophe: Surviving the 21st Century," 2—14—10, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/02/14-6
The hour is late. Leading climate scientists such as James Hansen are literally shouting
AND
die of thirst, cold, heat, disease, war, and starvation

transition


A. Vital to stability

Christopher Layne, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, "The Global Power Shift from West to East," THE NATIONAL INTERST, May/June 2012, p. 31.
During the next two decades, the United States will face some difficult choices between
AND
such fervor that they can~’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes.

B. Key to multipolarity

Christopher Layne, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FROM 1940 TO PRESENT, 2006, p. 158.
At the same time, it doubtless is true that it will take some time
AND
The United States can do this by adopting an offshore balancing grand strategy.

C. Prevents extended deterrence breakdowns and nuclear war

Christopher Layne, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FROM 1940 TO PRESENT, 2006, p. 169.
Proponents of U.S. hegemony like to say that America~’s military commitments in
AND
from the danger of being entrapped in Eurasian conflicts by its alliance commitments.

China


Taiwan-China relations are high

Cole 12 — Taipei-based journalist who focuses on military issues in Northeast Asia and in the Taiwan Strait (J. Michael, 9/3, "Taiwan Hedges its Bets on China," http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/09/03/taiwan-hedges-its-bets-against-china/)
By a number of yardsticks, relations in the Taiwan Strait today are the best
AND
sea-rescue operations in the waters off Taiwan~’s Kinmen and China~’s Xiamen.

No US-China war – economics

Shor 12 (Francis, Professor of History – Wayne State, "Declining US Hegemony and Rising Chinese Power: A Formula for Conflict?", Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, 11(1), pp. 157-167)
While the United States no longer dominates the global economy as it did during the
AND
of the U.S. governing elite~’s ideological commitment to national security.

No China conflict – no military use

Aliison %26 Blackwill 13 — *director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Douglas Dillon Professor at Harvard~’s John F. Kennedy School of Government AND **Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (Graham and Robert, 1/28/2013, "Beijing Still Prefers Diplomacy Over Force," http://www.cfr.org/china/beijing-still-prefers-diplomacy-over-force/p29892)
As China has become a leading export market for its neighbours, it expects them
AND
sparks military conflict over the Senkakus, which would serve no one~’s interests.

Chinese leadership will pull back

Ross 1 (Robert S., Professor of Political Science – Boston College, The National Interest, Fall, Lexis
The strategic costs to China of a war with the United States are only part
AND
the survival of the party depends on preventing a Sino-American war.

History proves no risk of China war – their cards are all hype

Dyer 9 (Gwynne, Ph.D. in War Studies – University of London and Board of Governors – Canada~’s Royal Military College, "China Unlikely to Engage in Military Confrontation", Jakarta Post, 4-29,
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2005/03/12/china-unlikely-engage-military-confrontation.html)
Given America~’s monopoly or huge technological lead in key areas like stealth bombers, aircraft
AND
build-up and no plausible threat of impending war in East Asia.


Environ


Environment resilient and improving – their authors lie

Dutton 1 (Dr. Dennis, Professor of Philosophy – University of Canterbury (New Zealand), "Greener Than You Think", The Washington Post, 10-21, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article%26node=%26 contentId=A12789-2001Oct18)
That the human race faces environmental problems is unquestionable. That environmental experts have regularly
AND
typographical errors had been absorbed unchallenged into the folklore of environmental disaster scenarios.




Status quo solves – US inspections of rigs


Cuban drilling is safe – access to technology and safety standards prove

Sadowksi 12 (Richard – Managing Editor of Production of the Journal of International Business and Law Vol. X, J.D Candidate at Hofstra University, "Cuban Offshore Drilling: Preparation and Prevention within the Framework of the United States~’ Embargo", 2012, http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1497%26context=sdlp)
Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the
AND
from being uti - lized, foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives. 66

Environment is resilient

Easterbrook 95 (Gregg, Distinguished Fellow – Fullbright Foundation, A Moment on Earth, p. 25)
In the aftermath of events such as Love Canal or the Exxon Valdez oil spill
AND
are pinpricks compared to forces of the magnitude nature is accustomed to resisting.

No extinction

Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Distinguished Fellow – Fullbright Foundation, "We~’re All Gonna Die%21", Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1%26topic=%26topic_set=)
If we~’re talking about doomsday - the end of human civilization - many scenarios simply
AND
as he was, wrote Remembrance of Things Past while lying in bed.



1NC - round 6


Off case


politics


a.) Immigration reform will pass and it political capital is key

Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16 "Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration",
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931%26CategoryId=12395
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest
AND
," taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups.

b.) Link – Engaging Mexico drains PC

Farnsworth 12 – VP of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society (Eric, "The United States and Mexico: The Path Forward", Nov 30, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/-http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/, CMR)

The election of Enrique Peña Nieto and the re-election of President Obama mean that the U.S.-Mexican relationship has a unique opportunity to grow closer and bring numerous benefits to both sides of the border. To fully appreciate this unique opportunity, both sides must invest political capitaland be prepared to engage domestic public opinion when it comes to explaining why our countries are united by much more than a fence.
PC is key and finite
Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/20/in-interview-obama-says-he-has-a-year-to-get-stuff-done/-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/20/in-interview-obama-says-he-has-a-year-to-get-stuff-done/, CMR)
President Obama said Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term
AND
issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigration reform and gun control.


====c.) Impact – Immigration reform decreases terror risk—multiple mechanisms====
Griswold 04 (Daniel, Senior Fellow @ CATO, Federal News Service, 4/1, lexis)
MR. DANIEL GRISWOLD: Thank you, Chairman Chambliss, and members of the
AND
and it would enhance the federal government~’s ability to wage war on terrorism.

Nuclear war—retaliation

Patrick F. Speice, "Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating the Current Liability Barrier to Bilateral U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Assistance Programs," WILLIAM %26 MARY LAW REVIEW v. 47, 2—06, p. 1437-1438.
Accordingly, there is a significant and ever-present risk that terrorists could acquire
AND
increasing the number of casualties and potentially triggering a full-scale nuclear conflict

States


The border states of, Arizona California New Mexico and Texas should fund substantial infrastructure improvements at Points of Entry along the United States – Mexico border.


States and localities could fund POE improvements – only minor changes at the federal level would be required

Wilson %26 Lee 2013

Erik Lee, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University, Christopher E. Wilson, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars "THE STATE OF TRADE, COMPETITIVENESS AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING INTHE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER REGION" The State of The Border report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border Border Research Partnership May 2013 http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border.pdf-http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border.pdf

Given the fact that POE improvements offer significant and tangible monetary benefits to border communities
AND
legislative support and could open significant opportunities for investment despite tough budgetary times.


Solvency


NAFTA not key to economies – economic disparities

Wilson 13 (Timothy, "[[Twenty Years Later: Accounting for NAFTA~’s Wins and Losses-http://www.nearshoreamericas.com/nafta-mexicos-tech-spending-spree/]]," Nearshore Americas, 3/25/2013, http://www.nearshoreamericas.com/nafta-mexicos-tech-spending-spree/-http://www.nearshoreamericas.com/nafta-mexicos-tech-spending-spree/, 7/10/2013, SLiu)

NAFTA Not a Magic Wand Despite the fact that there appear to have been significant
AND
"the effects on the Mexican economy tended to be modest at most."

Cross-border trade is bad for the Mexican economy because it destroys industrial diversification, keeps wages low and hollows out the middle class.

Diederich 2013

Phillippe Diederich is a freelance writer, photographer %26 educator. His work has appeared in the NYT, Time magazine, US News, and he has won numerous awards for his photography %26 writing. Born in the Dominican Republic %26 raised in Mexico City and Miami. "Is Mexico~’s economic boom trickling down to all Mexicans?" 3/25/13 http://www.voxxi.com/mexico-economic-boom-all-mexicans/-http://www.voxxi.com/mexico-economic-boom-all-mexicans/

Mexico~’s economic boom not felt by all Recently, Thomas Friedman of the New York
AND
so all Mexicans can participate and enjoy the rewards of a strong economy.


China~’s current economic strategy is allowing them to outpace US influence in Latin America – plan reverses that

Gallagher 6/18/13 – associate professor of international relations at Boston University (Kevin P, "Time for a U.S. Pivot to Latin America", http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?storyid=10035-http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?storyid=10035, CMR)

Increasingly, Latin American countries see China not as a rival but as a valuable
AND
. control, China offers up its loans come with few strings attached.




Plan fails and will be rejected – internal reform is a pre-requisite to investment

Hufbauer %26 Scott ~’5
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since ~’92, was the Marcus
Wallenberg Professor of Int~’l Finance Diplomacy @ Georgetown University, AND Jeffrey J, senior fellow, joined the Inst for Int~’l Economic in ~’83, visiting lecturer @ Princeton, "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges", page number below

To generate significant sums required for such investments, Mexico will need to attract both
AND
first willing to tap its own resources. ~~[page 472-473~~]


No chance the plan solves – only trilateral cooperation with Canada can ensure successful integration

Pastor 12 – prof and director of the Center for North American Studies @ American
Robert A, Beyond the Continental Divide, July/August, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1269-http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1269, CMR

The problem is that our leaders do not think continentally. As long as they
AND
our three great countries, but only if we first see the possibility.


TPP


China won~’t go to war - no incentive.


Bremmer, 10 – president of Eurasia Group and author (Ian Bremmer, "China vs. America: Fight of the Century," Prospect, March 22, 2010, http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2010/03/china-vs-america-fight-of-the-century/-http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2010/03/china-vs-america-fight-of-the-century/)

China will not mount a military challenge to the US any time soon. Its
AND
largely co-opted already by offering Taiwan~’s business elite privileged investment opportunities.

China wouldn~’t fight a war in ANY dispute.


Fravel ~’8 (Taylor, poli sci prof and member of the Security Studies Program at MIT, "Power Shifts and Escalation," International Security, Winter, lexis)

The prospects for China~’s use of force in its six unresolved disputes are mixed.
AND
confident about the strength of its claim and the outcome of any negotiations.


No US-China war – economics

Shor 12 (Francis, Professor of History – Wayne State, "Declining US Hegemony and Rising Chinese Power: A Formula for Conflict?", Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, 11(1), pp. 157-167)
While the United States no longer dominates the global economy as it did during the
AND
of the U.S. governing elite~’s ideological commitment to national security.



And their own evidence say China has refused to join the TPP that~’s their Kissinger 12 card. They force themselves into a double bind either the plan forces China to join which turns the aff or there is no impact


Integration



Heg doesn~’t solve war – US lacks influence to deescalate conflicts

Mastanduno 2009 ~~[Michael, Professor of Government at Dartmouth, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco~~]
During the cold war the United States dictated the terms of adjustment. It derived
AND
way, but it can no longer count on getting its own way.

hegemony is not sustainable

Christopher Layne, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, "This Time It~’s Real: The End of Unipolarity and Pax Americana," INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, 2012, Wiley, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00704.x/full, accessed 6-9-12.
Before the Great Recession~’s foreshocks in fall 2007, most American security studies scholars believed
AND
following World War II even as the material foundations of American primacy erode.

Hegemony ensures U.S. involvement in overseas conflicts and nuclear war – withdrawal prevents automatic deployment to honor alliances.

Layne 2006 ~~[Christopher, Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A%26M University, "The Peace of Illusions" p 169~~]
Rather than being instruments of regional pacification, today America~’s alliances are transmission belts for
AND
from the danger of being entrapped in Eurasian conflicts by its alliance commitments.

Three – regionalization


a. Decline spurs it, more stable than dominance

Leon T. Hadar, Cato Institute, "Welcome to the Post-Unipolar World: Great for the U.S. and for the Rest," HUFFINGTON POST, 7—8—10, [[http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11967-http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11967]]
Moreover, in the context of the evolving international system under which America is gradually
AND
the world, America could help itself and the rest of the world.

b. Solves terror, war, climate change

Krishnan Srinivasan, "International Conflict and Cooperation in the 21st Century," THE ROUND TABLE v. 98 n. 400, 2—09, pp. 37-47.
The new world order of the first half of the present century will be one
AND
ascendancy first regionally, then continentally and finally globally over all the others.

c. warming causes Extinction

Ronnie Cummins and Will Allen, Organic Consumers Association, "Climate Catastrophe: Surviving the 21st Century," 2—14—10, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/02/14-6
The hour is late. Leading climate scientists such as James Hansen are literally shouting
AND
die of thirst, cold, heat, disease, war, and starvation

Four – transition


A. Vital to stability

Christopher Layne, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, "The Global Power Shift from West to East," THE NATIONAL INTERST, May/June 2012, p. 31.
During the next two decades, the United States will face some difficult choices between
AND
such fervor that they can~’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes.

B. Key to multipolarity

Christopher Layne, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FROM 1940 TO PRESENT, 2006, p. 158.
At the same time, it doubtless is true that it will take some time
AND
The United States can do this by adopting an offshore balancing grand strategy.

C. Prevents extended deterrence breakdowns and nuclear war

Christopher Layne, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FROM 1940 TO PRESENT, 2006, p. 169.
Proponents of U.S. hegemony like to say that America~’s military commitments in
AND
from the danger of being entrapped in Eurasian conflicts by its alliance commitments.


Supply chains


Global supply chain efficiency won~’t work – a one-size fits all approach fails.

Ikenson 2008 Daniel Ikenson is associate director of Cato~’s Center for Trade Policy Studies and coauthor of Antidumping Exposed: The Devilish Details of Unfair Trade Law While Doha Sleeps Securing Economic Growth through Trade Facilitation June 17, 2008 No. 3 http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/tpa-037.pdf

A report based on a 2006 APEC survey of the literature assessing the costs and
AND
is a quid-pro-quo and therefore endangers prospects for reform.


Any single policy can~’t solve supply chain inefficiency.

Hoekman, 2013 Bernard Hoekman is a Professor at the European University Institute, Florence Italy, where he directs the Research Programme on International Economics in the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies~’ Global Governance Programme. "Global supply chains and trade agreements: beyond business as usual" June 11th, 2013 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/06/11/global-supply-chains-and-trade-agreements-beyond-business-as-usual/

The current approaches pursued by governments arguably are not optimal because they focus on specific
AND
policies, corruption and theft can all impact on supply-chain costs.


Plan causes oil development and dependence

Krauss and Malkin ~’10 ("Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach" New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all%26_r=0)
To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was
AND
an embarrassing disaster for Pemex, the latest in a string of them.


That kills renewable shift

CBO, 2012 (Congressional Budget Office, "Energy Security in the United States", May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S.
AND
the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38
Renewables solve warming
Leahy, ~’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, "Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts", Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting
AND
future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.

Extinction

Speth 2008 ~~[James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26~~]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic
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and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.


1NC - Round 3

politics


a.) Immigration reform will pass and it political capital is key
Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16 "Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration",
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931%26CategoryId=12395
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest
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," taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups.

b.) Link –Engaging Mexico drains PC
Farnsworth 12 – VP of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society (Eric, "The United States and Mexico: The Path Forward", Nov 30, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/-http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/, CMR)

The election of Enrique Peña Nieto and the re-election of President Obama mean that the U.S.-Mexican relationship has a unique opportunity to grow closer and bring numerous benefits to both sides of the border. To fully appreciate this unique opportunity, both sides must invest political capitaland be prepared to engage domestic public opinion when it comes to explaining why our countries are united by much more than a fence.
PC is key and finite
Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/20/in-interview-obama-says-he-has-a-year-to-get-stuff-done/-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/20/in-interview-obama-says-he-has-a-year-to-get-stuff-done/, CMR)
President Obamasaid Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term agenda
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Congresson issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigrationreform and gun control.


c.) Impact – CIR is key to the economy and competitiveness
Green 7/2 - founder and president of FWD.us, an advocacy group created by technology leaders that promotes policies to keep the United States and its citizens competitive in a global economy (Joe, "House, knowledge economy needs immigrants", http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/opinion/green-immigration-reform/index.html-http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/opinion/green-immigration-reform/index.html, CMR)

Our country has changed a lot during those 27 years, but not — so
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reform to unlock those contributions and by doing so change millions of lives.

d.) Collapse of the US economic power causes nuclear war
Khalilzad11Zalmay was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, " The Economy and National Security", 2-8-11, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024-http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024, CMR

Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severelong-termthreat to the United
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, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.


Colonialism K


Mexico-US economic engagement is the lynchpin and proving ground of neoliberalism – the affirmative aides the global success of neoliberal exploitation
Mexico Solidarity Network 2012 ~~[Mexico- A neoliberal Experiment, http://www.mexicosolidarity.org/programs/alternativeeconomy/neoliberalism~~]
The United States and Mexico have been central to the development of the neoliberal model
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, and the US and Mexico are at the center of the vortex.


====Colonialism~’s violence is not just physical violence, but a genocide of both the body and the mind through the erasure of non-European cultures.====
Mignolo and Tlostanova 9 ~~[Walter D., Doctor of semiotics and literary theory, prof of decoloniality at Duke University, Madina, Doctor of literature and postcolonial studies, professor at People~’s Friendship University of Russia, "Times for re-thinking, re-learning and networking, February, Interview, http://kristinabozic.wordpress.com/decolonization-interview/~~]

What if any is the difference between colonization and genocide? Prof Mignolo:
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I think there is bigger common base of religion, roots, culture …

The question of this debate is how best to challenge colonial institutions and foreground the lives of marginalized populations – this is an ethical imperative.
Mignolo 2009(Walter Mignolo, 2009, Epistemic Disobedience, Independent thought, and deconlonial freedom, http://waltermignolo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/epistemicdisobedience-2.pdf-http://waltermignolo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/epistemicdisobedience-2.pdf, Walter Mignolo is a semiotician and Professor at Duke Univeristy, who has published extensively on semiotics and literary theory, and worked on different aspect of the modern and colonial world, exploring concepts such as global coloniality, the geopolitics of knowledge, transmodernity, border thinking, and pluriversality)
De-colonial thinking presupposes de-linking (epistemically and politically) from the
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wealth through the money invested by consumers who buy health-promoting technology.

Our alternative is to reject the affirmative – when confronted with colonial projects the only ethical response is radical negativity. We are compelled to be disobedient to modernity.
Mignolo 09 ~~[Walter D. Mignolo, Epistemic Disobedience, Independent Thought and Decolonial Freedom, Theory and Culture 2009, published 2009~~]
ONCE UPON a time scholars assumed that the knowing subject in the disciplines is transparent
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who take ~’originality~’ as the ultimate criterion for the final judgment.1


Case


Solvency


Plan fails and will be rejected – internal reform is a pre-requisite to investment
Hufbauer%26 Scott ~’5
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since ~’92, was the Marcus
Wallenberg Professor of Int~’l Finance Diplomacy @ Georgetown University, AND Jeffrey J, senior fellow, joined the Inst for Int~’l Economic in ~’83, visiting lecturer @ Princeton, "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges", page number below

To generate significant sums required for such investments, Mexico will need to attract both
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investment unless the Mexican government is first willing to tap its own resources.

Plan won~’t secure long-term investment – countries not convinced of benefits
Pastor 13 – Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies at American University (Robert A, "Speed Bumps, Potholes, and Roadblocks on the North American Superhighway", Winter, Lexis, CMR)

None of the manyproposals that have been advanced for the region can be achieved withoutsucha
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wider Community that could attract the support of the people and their legislatures.

Integration


The plan causes a huge protectionist backlash
Field 12 (Alan M, "Will protectionist murmurs deter efforts to forge even closer economic integration", July 5, http://www.canadiansailings.ca/?p=4319~~%23sthash.EBghHG0k.dpuf-http://www.canadiansailings.ca/?p=4319, CMR)

Although current NAFTA provisions for labour are "archaic," said Ms. Greenwood,
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– and yet equally challenged by competition from other regions of the world.

That will force Obama to bash NAFTA – turns case
O~’Brien 8 (Dan, Senior Editor – Economic Intelligence Unit, "Our Vested Interest in a McCain Win", Sunday Business Post, 11-2, http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=GUEST+WRITER-qqqs=commentandanalysis-qqqid=37213-qqqx=1.asp-http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=GUEST+WRITER-qqqs=commentandanalysis-qqqid=37213-qqqx=1.asp, CMR)

Anti-globalisation sentiment is widespread in the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been
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North American Free Trade Agreement. Obama may not be able to resist.

Turn – Maquiladoras:

A. Expanded border crossings cause Maquiladora revival

Paley 2013

Dawn Paley is a journalist from Vancouver, BC (Coast Salish territories). She~’s written for magazines and newspapers including the The Guardian, Vancouver Sun, The Globe and Mail, BC Business Magazine, and The Nation. In 2010, Dawn completed her Masters in Journalism at the University of British Columbia. "A Rough Guide to Obama~’s Mexico Visit" Americas Program of the Center for International Policy 5/2/13 http://www.cipamericas.org/archives/9449?utm_source=feedly-http://www.cipamericas.org/archives/9449?utm_source=feedly

There~’s a demand from the corporate sector to build new border crossings and expand existing
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the US and other corporations with operations along the US/Mexico border.



B. Maquiladoras hurt the Mexican economy – cause wage stagnation and concentration of wealth

Diederich 2012

PhillippeDiederich is a freelance writer, photographer %26 educator. His work has appeared in the NYT, Time magazine, US News, and he has won numerous awards for his photography %26 writing. Born in the Dominican Republic %26 raised in Mexico City and Miami. "Do not be fooled by the ~’Maquiladora Economy~’" July 17, 2012 http://www.voxxi.com/do-not-be-fooled-by-maquiladora-economy/~~%23ixzz2UeLxV0Wh

Maquiladora is a Mexican word. It~’s the nickname that was given to the manufacturing
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goods manufactured within our own economy. And the gap is getting wider.



Energy


Plan increases oil dependence
Krauss and Malkin ~’10("Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach" New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all%26_r=0)
To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was
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an embarrassing disaster for Pemex, the latest in a string of them.


That kills renewables
CBO, 2012 (Congressional Budget Office, "Energy Security in the United States", May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S.
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the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38
Renewables solve warming
Leahy, ~’11(Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, "Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts", Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting
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future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.

Extinction
Speth 2008~~[James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26~~]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic
AND
and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.


Zero risk the plan solve North American energy independence or vulnerability to foreign sources
Duffy 12
Aimee, "Busting the Myth of Energy Independence", Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/-http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

The global marketplace ¶ Even if we were to accept these three assumptions, there
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likelihood that we will continue to turn to foreign sources in the future.


Energy independence won~’t solve US power or vulnerability
O~’Sullivan 13 (Meghan, professor at Harvard University~’s Kennedy School of Government and former deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration, ~’Energy Independence~’ Alone Won~’t Boost U.S. Power, Feb 14, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/-energy-independence-alone-won-t-boost-u-s-power.html-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/-energy-independence-alone-won-t-boost-u-s-power.html, CMR)

Still, despite all this good news, the U.S. energy boom
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it was when Uncle Sam secured much of its oil from Saudi Arabia.

Energy security won~’t alter U.S. foreign policy – multiple alt causes constrain the U.S. and ensure our involvement overseas
Myhre 13 – graduate of the University of Colorado where he double majored in history and international affairs, PhD at the London School of Economics in international relations
Jeff, "American Energy Independence Might Not Change Things Much", Feb 20, http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2013/02/20/american-energy-independence-might-not-change-things-much/-http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2013/02/20/american-energy-independence-might-not-change-things-much/, CMR

Thanks to fracking and the oil rush in North Dakota, many analysts predict energy
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the case, but after 40 years, the situation is more complicated.