Aff

1AC Round 4 & 5


Plan Text


The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports.

Contention 1: The Environment

Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol market is superior to American corn-based ethanol. It will slow the rate of climate change, pesticide use, and dead zones.
Specht 13
[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]

IV. Environmental Effects of Ethanol¶ ¶ Assuming that Cuba is able to meet
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to corn production and, thus, to the domestic ethanol industry. n68

Scenario 1: Water

Continued increases in U.S. corn-ethanol production will drain the Ogallala Aquifer—causing massive water shortages
Specht 13
[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]

Increased water consumption is another environmental consequence resulting from the expansion of corn production in
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and policy were changed to encourage the importation of sugarcane-based ethanol.

Drinking water is key to life on earth
Jackson and Carpenter 1
[Robert- Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke, Stephen- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Clifford Dahm, Diane McKnight- University of New Mexico,, Robert Naiman- University of Colorado, Sandra Postel-University of Washington, Steven Running, “Water in a Changing World,” Issues in Ecology, http://www.biology.duke.edu/jackson/issues9.pdf, Spring 2001]

Life on earth depends on the continuous flow of materials through the air, water
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particular basins and in individual watersheds is the key to sustainable water management.




Scenario 2: Climate Change

Global Warming is happening – most recent and best evidence concludes that it is human induced
Muller 7-28-2012 [Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former MacArthur Foundation fellow, “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all]

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate
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(CO2), measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice.

CO2 is the primary driver of climate change – outweighs all alt causes
Vertessy and Clark3-13-2012[Rob, Acting Director of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Megan, Chief Executive Officer at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, “State of the Climate 2012”, http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for about 60% of the effect from
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dominant cause of the observed CO2 increase is the combustion of fossil fuels.


Global warming makes global agricultural production impossible – resulting in mass starvation
Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided”, A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The overall conclusions of IPCC AR4 concerning food production and agriculture included the following:
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differently and food security is further challenged by a multitude of nonclimatic factors.

4 degrees of warming make sustaining biodiversity impossible – the impact is extinction
Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided”, A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

Ecosystems and their species provide a range of important goods and services for human society
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ecosystems into a state unknown in human experience (Barnosky et al., 2012
4 degree warming is inevitable with current carbon usage trends – deceasing carbon emissions solve
Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided”, A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The emission pledges made at the climate conventions in Copenhagen and Cancun, if fully
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to see a monthly summer temperature rise of more than 6°C.

Contention 2: Solvency

Cuban sugar based ethanol is essential -- it’s the best solution for a transition away from oil-based fuel dependence—allowing access to the U.S. market is key
Specht 13
[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]

"The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity
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, deserves much greater consideration and evaluation than it has thus far received.

And, joint ventures jumpstart the Cuban ethanol energy industry
Alonso-Pippo et al. 8
[Walfrido Alonso-Pippo- former Vice-President of the Solar Energy Department at the University of Havana and a former member of the Cuban National Renewable Energies Front, where he was a specialist in biomass energy use, Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pierto Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, “Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case,” Energy Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 6, June 2008, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508000840]

The rise of the price of oil above 80 USD/bbl. provides an
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movement toward the development of sugarcane as a viable alternative source of energy.
Sugar ethanol importation from Cuba is superior to alternatives and solves impacts from domestic corn ethanol production—with no environmental damage
Specht 13
[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]

B. Environmental Effects of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol¶ If future legislation does not
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to promote the importation of Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol should be encouraged.



Contention 3: Impact Framing

No great power war – interdependence, democracy , deterrence
Robb 2012
[Doug, US Navy Lieutenant, “Now Hear This – Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over”, May, 5/2012 [Lieutenant, US Navy, “”, US Naval Institute, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over]
In addition to geopolitical and diplomacy issues, globalization continues to transform the world.
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a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable.
Miscalc is impossible
Quinlan 2009
[Sir Michael, visiting professor at King's College London, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and former senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, “Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects,” Oxford University Press]
One special form of miscalculation appeared sporadically in the speculations of academic commentators, though
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if necessary—that there was no misinterpretation of its conventionally armed launch.
Intervening actions check escalation
Trachtenberg 2000
(Prof of History, Pennsylvania (Marc, The "Accidental War" Question, http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/inadv(1).pdf)
The second point has to do with how much risk there really is in situations
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the system to keep relatively minor provocations from leading directly to general war.
Nuclear war doesn’t cause extinction
Socol 2011
Yehoshua(Ph.D.), an inter-disciplinary physicist, is an expert in electro-optics, high-energy physics and applications, and material science and Moshe Yanovskiy, Jan 2,“Nuclear Proliferation and Democracy”, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/nuclear_proliferation_and_demo.html, CMR
Nuclear proliferation should no longer be treated as an unthinkable nightmare; it is likely
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reality will most probably contain fewer nuclear-possessing states than the former.

1NC Round 6


Algae CP 1NC

Text: The United States federal government should amend relevant definitions in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 to include algae-derived fuels eligible for all tax credits, subsidies, and price supports.
Amending the RFS to include price supports for algae spurs green crude production. This provides clean renewable fuel – solves warming and breaks the food/fuel link
Jason Pyle (Chief Executive Officer, Sapphire Energy) June 12 2008 “Renewable Fuels And Food Prices,” CQ Congressional Testimony
First, let me thank the Committee for its leadership on alternative, renewable fuels
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crops, or other natural resources. Sapphire has turned sunlight into gasoline.

The counter plan solves the case and is bipartisan.
Energy Washington Week, ‘8
[“Senate Energy Committee Eyes RFS revision to ease rising food prices” June 18, 2008, l/n]
Key members of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee are suggesting changes are needed
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on federal lands, and urban and commercial wood waste." -- Will Harrington

Airline, Farm, and biotech lobbies support the CP
Casey 5/26
(Tina Casey is a writer for CleanTechnica the #1 most-visited clean energy or cleantech news site in the US the most indispensable site on the planet for cleantech news and commentary, 5-26-12, “Airlines, Farm Groups Petition Senate for Military Biofuels”, http://cleantechnica.com/2012/05/26/airlines-farm-groups-petition-senate-military-biofuels/)
Airlines for America, the American Farm Bureau Federation and other groups banded together last
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transition to alternative fuels, rather than a responsible exercise of legislative authority.

Cuba Conditions CP 1NC

Text: The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports if and only if the Cuban government implements economic liberalization reforms, including engaging international financial institutions and reducing restrictions on foreign direct investment.
Only the counterplan solves Cuban growth and democracy – US engagement in economic liberalization ensures stable transition post-Castro. And they’d say yes.
Perez 2010
[David A. Perez, Yale Law School, JD, 2010, Harvard Latino Law Review, Spring, 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, America’s Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department, p. 206-10]
The United States should recognize that economic change is a precursor to political change.
AND
, may also prevent a costly civil war during the inevitably painful transition.

Unstable transition causes Caribbean terrorism, regional instability, and turns the case
Gorrell 2005
[Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074]
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
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in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Latin American instability sparks global WMD conflict, terrorism, starvation, and human rights violations
Manwaring 2005
[Max, ,Professor of Military Strategy @ U.S. Army War College, Retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, VENEZUELA’S HUGO CHÁVEZ, BOLIVARIAN SOCIALISM, AND ASYMMETRIC WARFARE, October 2005, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub628.pdf]
The Issue of State Failure. - President Chávez also understands that the process leading
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and their associated problems endanger global security, peace, and prosperity.65

CIR 1NC

Immigration reform will pass and political capital is key
Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16 “Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration”,
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931&CategoryId=12395
WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest
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,” taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups.
Drains capital – Backlash and hostage taking on unrelated priority legislation is empirically proven, likely in future and specifically true for Rubio – Cuba policy is totally unique
LeoGrande, 12
William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf

The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie
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rarely happen unless the urgency of the problem forces policymakers to take action.

Expanding high skilled immigration key to stop bioterror attack
Goldberg et al 2004 (Joseph E., Dorsey, Harry, Bartone, Paul, Ortman, Bill, Ashcraft, Paul, Burlingame, Stan, Carter, Anna L., Cofer, Robin D., Elwood, John, Guerts, Jim, Industry Studies 2004: Biotechnology, The Industrial College of the Armed Forces National Defense University)

Biotechnology has the potential to revolutionize all aspects of our daily of life over the
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use does not outweigh its ability to address the world’s most pressing needs.
A bioweapons attack threatens human survival
Carpenter and Bishop 2009 (P. A., P. C., July 10, Graduate Program in Studies of the Future, School of Human Sciences and Humanities, University of Houston-Clear Lake, Houston, TX, USA, Graduate Program in Futures Studies, College of Technology, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA. A review of previous mass extinctions and historic catastrophic events, ScienceDirect)

The flu of 1890, 1918–1919 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu,
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to have developed an antibiotic-resistant strain of the plague [26].
Extinction
Trewavas 00 [Anthony, Institute of Cell and Molecular Biology – University of Edinburgh, “GM Is the Best Option We Have”, AgBioWorld, 6-5, http://www.agbioworld.org/biotech-info/articles/biotech-art/best_option.html]

But these are foreign examples; global warming is the problem that requires the UK
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accepting that technological advance may be the only buffer between us and annihilation.

Monoculture 1NC

Even conservation biologists agree that species loss is slow and there's no impact
Julian Simon (world-renowned economist) 1998 The Ultimate Resource II, http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/TCHAR31.txt)
Starting in the early 1980s I published the above critical analysis of the standard extinction
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to see that the quotations fairly represent the gist of the authors' arguments.)

Species loss doesn’t snowball
Thomas Gale Moore 98 (Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford) 1998 Climate of Fear, 98-99
Nevertheless, the loss of a class of living beings does not typically threaten other
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As long as the host remains, so will parasites and symbiotic species.

Climate Change 1NC

Warming is natural
BELL 11-3-2010 (Larry, Prof at U Houston, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/02/global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-opinions-columnists-larry-bell.html)
Yes, there is no doubt about it. The planet is experiencing a siege
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(1777), and Napoleon's, a frigid retreat from Russia (1812).

Not anthropogenic—solar variance
BELL 11-3-2010 (Larry, Prof at U Houston, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/02/global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-opinions-columnists-larry-bell.html)
Short- and long-term solar fluctuations have important influences too. Decadal and longer changes in sunspot activity impacting warming and cooling cloud cover patterns are now being recognized as an important factor. Other solar changes occurring at approximate 1,500 year intervals also influence climate. Greenland, for example, has experienced an estimated 600 of these cycles over the past million years.

Warming inevitable—even at lesser population growth rates, we’re still producing too much carbon dioxide to overcome
Husler and Sornette ’11 (A.D., and D. Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, “Evidence for super-exponentially accelerating atmospheric carbon dioxide growth,” 3/17/11, AM)

We have analyzed the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide and of what constitutes arguably its
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expected to lead to severe strains on a significant fraction of the population.
CO2 isn’t key to warming
BELL 11-3-2010 (Larry, Prof at U Houston, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/02/global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-opinions-columnists-larry-bell.html)
More recent temperature variations have been relatively much more stable and moderate. The past
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. In the Arctic these oscillations occur about every 60 to 70 years.

Impact Debate 1NC

Great-power nuclear war’s possible
Wittner 11Lawrence Wittner is Professor of History emeritus at SUNY/Albany "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?" 11/30/2011 www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-wittner/nuclear-war-china_b_1116556.html
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
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—destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.

Prefer specific scenarios - even if things make war more difficult it doesn’t make it unthinkable
James Wood Forsyth, Professor, National Security Studies and Thomas E. Griffith Jr., Dean of Faculty and Academic Programs, National War College, "Through the Glass Darkly: The Unlikely Demise of Great-Power War," STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, Fall 2007, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA509123
The United States cannot prepare to put down any and all potential rivals. The
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-power war has a bright future, however tragic that might seem.

Multiple factors ensure escalation
Cirincione, foreign services prof, 6 (Joseph, Prof of Foreign Service at Georgetown University Senior Associate and Director for Non-Proliferation, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Joseph, July, Nuclear Proliferation Status, http://units.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/2006/july/article4.cfm, AG)

Existing regional nuclear tensions already pose serious risks. The decades-long conflict between
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president could prematurely order a nuclear strike based on flawed intelligence.[3]

Nuclear war causes extinction—most qualified evidence
Robock ’11 (Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, “Nuclear winter is a real and present danger”, May 18, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v473/n7347/full/473275a.html, CMR)
In the 1980s, discussion and debate about the possibility of a 'nuclear winter' helped
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more recently — for consideration of new scientific results in US nuclear policy.