The same for round 2

Aff

Table of Contents

Advantages: Econ, TPP, Relations.

Advantage One – Economy


Growing bottlenecks at US-Mexico points of entry will cause a slowdown in North American trade - current levels of trade can’t be sustained.

Ramos 2013

Kristian Ramos is New Democracy Network’s Policy Director of the 21st Century Border Initiative, “Realizing the Strategic National Value of our Trade, Tourism and Ports of Entry with Mexico” The New Policy Institute is the educational affiliate of the NDN, a think tank based in Washington, DC. May 2013 http://ndn.org/sites/default/files/blog_files/NPI%20U%20S%20-Mexico%20Trade%20Tourism%20POE%20Report_0.pdf

Investment in ports of entry is key Key policies and infrastructure can either help or
AND
North American Development Bank may offer a model for funding border infrastructure projects.

Continued blockages at the border will suffocate both the US and Mexican economies.

Farnsworth, 2013

Eric Farnsworth heads the Washington office of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, “Obama’s Mexico Trip Yielded Progress, Missed Opportunities,” Briefing, World Politics Review http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12934/obama-s-mexico-trip-yielded-progress-missed-opportunities


The two presidents should also have had more to say about the border, particularly
AND
will need to think bigger to take the relationship to the next level.


Effective and efficient border crossings are key to US exports to Mexico –

O’Neil 2013

Shannon O'Neil is Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), “U.S. Exports Depend on Mexico ” Latin America’s Moment January 11 http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/01/11/u-s-exports-depend-on-mexico/

Surprising to many Americans is the importance of the United States’ trade with Mexico.
AND
opportunity and security–for U.S. companies and workers alike.

US-Mexico economic cooperation is the only hope for sustaining the global economic recovery

Schiffer 2013

Michael Schiffer President of the Inter-American Dialogue “A More Ambitious Agenda: A Report of the Inter-American Dialogue’s commission on Mexico-US relations.” February http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD9042_USMexicoReportEnglishFinal.pdf

The first is to reinforce and deepen economic cooperation. That includes increasing the productivity
AND
, and Canada in negotiations toward the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Global economic collapse causes war.
Harris and Burrows, 9

*counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis”, Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_burrows.pdf)

Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics
AND
within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.


Advantage Two TPP

Cooperation on border efficiency is critical to developing a common agenda on trade with Mexico for the TPP agreement.
Villareal & Fergusson 2013

M. Angeles Villareal Congressional Research Service Specialist in International Trade and Finance; Ian F. Fergusson Congressional Research Service Specialist in International Trade and Finance “NAFTA at 20: Overview and trade effects.” Congressional Research Service . . This article is available at DigitalCommons@ILR: http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/1034

The rising number of regional trade agreements throughout the world, in addition to the
AND
more energy to improving cooperation and enhancing efficiency in cross-border trade.
Only cooperation with Mexico in the TPP will create strong enough incentives for China to join.
Wilson May 2013

Christopher E. Wilson Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. “A U.S.-Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive Region” in New Ideas for a New Era: Policy Options for the Next Stage in U.S.-Mexico Relations Woodrow Wilson Center Mexico Institute Print Edition, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_new_era.pdf

The United States and Mexico are among the most open economies in the world,
AND
. gets ready to begin negotiating a trade agreement with the European Union.

If the TPP excludes China, it will be perceived as containment and create US-China conflict in Asia.
Kissinger, 2012 Henry A. A recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, he served as National Security Advisor and later concurrently as Secretary of State in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. "The Future of US–Chinese Relations." Foreign Affairs 91.2 (2012): 44-5.

The current world order was built largely without Chinese participation, and hence China sometimes
AND
-sum issues, such asterritory and security, may grow insurmountable.


A conflicted US-China relationship causes major power war.
Ratner, 2013 Dr. Ely Ratner is the Deputy Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Dr. Ratner recently served in the Office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs at the State Department as the lead political officer covering China’s external relations in Asia. "Rebalancing to Asia with an Insecure China." The Washington Quarterly 36.2 (2013): 21-38.

China's foreign policies have for decades reflected the principles of biding time, pursuing a
AND
—are chief among the tasks of U.S. China policy.


War between China and the US would go nuclear.
Goldstein 2013 First Things First The Pressing Danger of Crisis Instability in U.S.-China Relations Avery Goldstein is the David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, and Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. International Security, Vol. 37, No. 4 (Spring 2013), pp. 49–89

For at least the next decade, the advantage of the United States in terms
AND
-American crisis will render all speculation about the long term tragically moot.




Advantage Three – US Mexico Relations

Despite the growing importance of US-Mexico relations, new BILATERAL initiatives are necessary to jump start improvements

O’Neil 2013

Shannon O'Neil is Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), “U.S. Exports Depend on Mexico ” Latin America’s Moment January 11 http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/01/11/u-s-exports-depend-on-mexico/

Hidden behind the troubling headlines, however, is another, more hopeful Mexico
AND
States needs to start seeing Mexico as a partner instead of a problem.


Successful cooperation on border crossing for goods spills over into other areas of relations – it’s the best opportunity to improve relations.

Bonner & Rozental 2009

Robert C. Bonner Former Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Former Administrator, Drug Enforcement Administration, Andrés Rozental Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico; Former President and Founder Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI) “Managing the United States-Mexico Border: Cooperative Solutions to Common Challenges “ Report of the Binational Task Force on the United States-Mexico Border http://www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=30

The 1,952-mile land boundary between theUnited States and Mexico is
AND
boundary should serve as a model for binational collaboration in confronting shared challenges.


Plan solves pressures on broader relations– it would create the opportunity for a significant increase in US-Mexico relations.

Olson & Lee 2012

Eric L Olson serves as Associate Director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. Erik Lee serves as Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University. “The State of Security in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region” Working Paper Series on the State of the U.S.-Mexico Border August 2012 http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/State_of_Border_Security_Olson_Lee.pdf

Lasting progress in U.S.-Mexico border security can only come from increased
AND
rather than highly congested and bureaucratized nodes in our North American commercial network.

Growing a strong US-Mexican relationship is a prerequisite to continued US power projection and supremacy.

Pastor 2012

Robert A. Pastor is professor and director of the Center for North American Studies at American University. Pastor served as National Security Advisor on Latin America during the Carter Administration. “Beyond the Continental Divide” From the July/August 2012 issue of The American Interest http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1269

Most Americans think that the largest markets for U.S. exports are China
AND
be vastly beneficial. We don’t seem ready to recognize that truth either.


Loss of American power projection causes global war.
Brooks, Ikenberry, and Wohlforth ’13 (Stephen, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, William C. Wohlforth is the Daniel Webster Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College “Don’t Come Home America: The Case Against Retrenchment,” International Security, Vol. 37, No. 3 (Winter 2012/13), pp. 7–51)

A core premise of deep engagement is that it prevents the emergence of a far
AND
that of potential rivals is by many measures growing rather than shrinking. 85

Observation One – Solvency

First, the plan facilitates improved US-Mexico cooperation while streamlining ports of entry
Bonner & Rozental 2009

Robert C. Bonner Former Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Former Administrator, Drug Enforcement Administration Andrés Rozental Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico; Former President and Founder Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI) “Managing the United States-Mexico Border: Cooperative Solutions to Common Challenges “ Report of the Binational Task Force on the United States-Mexico Border http://www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=30


The solutions We believe that that the most effective and efficient way to enhance
AND
the frontier to assist U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Second, Mexico is a ready and willing partner for border infrastructure improvements, but the United States has to be the first mover – plan would catalyze growth in legal trade

O’Neil 2013

Shannon O'Neil is Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), “Mexico Makes It: A Transformed Society, Economy, and Government” March/April 2013 Foreign Affairs http://www.cfr.org/mexico/mexico-makes/p30098

BORDER BUDDIES Since NAFTA was passed, U.S.-Mexican trade has more
AND
to boost the United States' exports, jobs, and overall economic growth.

Third, expanding border crossing would pose no risk to security and investments on accelerating flows would reap massive economic returns

Bonner & Rozental 2009

Robert C. Bonner Former Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Former Administrator, Drug Enforcement Administration Andrés Rozental Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico; Former President and Founder Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI) “Managing the United States-Mexico Border: Cooperative Solutions to Common Challenges “ Report of the Binational Task Force on the United States-Mexico Border http://www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=30

Congestion at crossing points imposes considerable costs on tourists, commuters, consumers, business
AND
, at any port of entry, with minimal variation about this average.
Finally- Federal action is necessary- the states can’t coordinate with Mexico.
Wilson & Lee 2013

Erik Lee, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University, Christopher E. Wilson, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars “THE STATE OF TRADE, COMPETITIVENESS AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING INTHE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER REGION” The State of The Border report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border Border Research Partnership May 2013 http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border.pdf

There is no simple answer to the complex challenge of coordinating border planning and management
AND
vital. To strengthen regional competitiveness and security, we need regional coordination.

Neg Round 4 and 5 in round 5 we won't read on case to Ilegal Immigration


Renewables DA: Mexico NAIF



1NC Renewables DA


A. Uniqueness – Mexico~’s oil production is tanking

Krauss and Malkin ~’10 ("Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach" New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all%26_r=0)
In all, Mexican oil output has dropped from just short of 3.5
AND
in Chicontepec. "The problem is getting it out of the ground."

And, Renewable Energy is winning the investment race

American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE), California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF), and Climate Policy Initiative 6/25 (ACORE, a 501(c)(3) non-profit membership organization, is dedicated to building a secure and prosperous America with clean, renewable energy. ACORE provides a common educational platform for a wide range of interests in the renewable energy community, focusing on technology, finance and policy. We convene thought leadership forums and create energy industry partnerships to communicate the economic, security and environmental benefits of renewable energy. Founded in 2004, the California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF) is a family of non-profit organizations working together to accelerate the movement of clean energy technologies along the continuum from innovation to infrastructure. Using tools from finance, public policy and technological innovation, CalCEF pursues these goals at the local, state and national levels via three affiliated entities: CalCEF Ventures, an evergreen investment fund; CalCEF Innovations, which leads CalCEF~’s analysis and solutions development; and CalCEF Catalyst, an industry acceleration platform. Climate Policy Initiative is an analysis and advisory organization that works to improve the most important energy and land use policies in the world. An independent, not-for-profit organization supported in part by a grant from the Open Society Foundations, CPI has offices and programs in Brazil, China, Europe, India, Indonesia, and the United States. "Strategies to Scale-Up U.S. Renewable Energy Investment" http://www.oregonwave.org/wp-content/uploads/Strategies-to-Scale-Up-US-Renewable-Energy-Investment.pdf)

Private sector investment in the U.S. renewable energy sector has grown significantly
AND
to produce more of the energy we consume here in the United States.

B. Link – Expanded US/Mexico cooperation increases our dependence on Oil

Krauss and Malkin ~’10 ("Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach" New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all%26_r=0)
To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was
AND
an embarrassing disaster for Pemex, the latest in a string of them.


C. Internal Link – Reliance on oil production crushes the transition to renewables

CBO, 2012 (Congressional Budget Office, "Energy Security in the United States", May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S.
AND
the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38
D. Impact – Renewable Transition is critical to solve global warming
Leahy, ~’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, "Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts", Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting
AND
future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.

And, Positive feedbacks ensure runaway warming, causes extinction

Speth 2008 ~~[James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26~~]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic
AND
and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.

TPA DA: Mexico NAIF


TPA DA 1NC


A. Congress will pass trade promotion authority for Obama now, despite partisanship on other issues.


Barfield 7/3/13 Claude Barfield is a Resident Scholar at AEI and a former consultant to the office of the US Trade Representative, July 3, 2013, "On trade, Republicans have Speaker Boehner~’s back" http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/on-trade-republicans-have-speaker-boehners-back/

John Boehner still has much to fear from the rambunctious younger cohorts of his Republican
AND
scrambling for votes, as was the case recently with the agriculture bill.


B. Engaging Mexico drains PC

Farnsworth 12 – VP of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society (Eric, "The United States and Mexico: The Path Forward", Nov 30, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/-http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/, CMR)

The election of Enrique Peña Nieto and the re-election of President Obama mean that the U.S.-Mexican relationship has a unique opportunity to grow closer and bring numerous benefits to both sides of the border. To fully appreciate this unique opportunity, both sides must invest political capitaland be prepared to engage domestic public opinion when it comes to explaining why our countries are united by much more than a fence.

C. Internal Link - Obama~’s capital is critical to passing Trade promotion authority.


Politi, 5/20/13 James. Financial Times ~~[London (UK)~~] 20 May 2013 Financial Times US economics and trade correspondent "US business keen to promote ~’fast track~’ trade deals: Political debate" Proquest

A campaign has been launched to ~’educate~’ legislators on the benefits involved, writes,
AND
though TPP is more contentious especially after the announcement that Japan would accede.



D. – Impact Passing TPA is critical to the future viability of the WTO – which will collapse now.

Jeffrey Schott 6/14/13 Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Payoff from the World Trade Agenda
Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC
June 14, 2013 http://www.piie.com/publications/papers/transcript-20130614.pdf

Now, what are the prospects for Bali? Well, they~’re not so good
AND
bigger WTO package that would be pulled together and accelerated negotiations post Bali.


F.WTO credibility key to cooperation – fosters peace and solves conflict

Blanco 2013 (Herminio Blanco, AllAfrica Staff Writer, 4-29-13, "The relevance of the World Trade Organization for Africa", http://www.tralac.org/2013/04/29/the-relevance-of-the-world-trade-organization-for-africa/)

There is an urgent need to preserve the credibility of the WTO as a forum
AND
but especially those of smaller size and the least developed countries of Africa.




1NC - Energy Adv Frontline


1. Shale Gas solves Oil Dependence in the Status Quo.


Krauss, 2012 (Clifford, national business correspondent based in Houston, covering energy, "Energy Independence in the United States" New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/business/energy-environment/energy-independence-in-america-would-not-be-fully-independent.html?_r=0, LL)

EVER since the Arab oil embargoes in the 1960s and 1970s, American presidents have
AND
it~’s better that it be our oil rather than from the Middle East.


2. Domestic oil production is developing now – the status quo solves.


Domm, 2013 (Patti, CNBC Executive News Editor, "US Is on Fast-Track to Energy Independence: Study" CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100450133, LL)

U.S. oil and gas production is evolving so rapidly—and demand
AND
he~’s had some "push back but not as much as last year."




3. Can~’t solve dependence on the Middle East – it~’s a global market.

Duffy 12
Aimee, "Busting the Myth of Energy Independence", Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/-http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

The global marketplace ¶ Even if we were to accept these three assumptions, there
AND
likelihood that we will continue to turn to foreign sources in the future.

4. Mexico can~’t be a major producer of oil —- too many barriers, lack of interest

Duffy 12
Aimee, "Busting the Myth of Energy Independence", Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/-http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

Assumption No. 2: Everything is fine in Mexico ¶ To put it simply
AND
it seems foolish to rely on the country for an increase in imports.



5. No solvency - Energy independence won~’t solve US vulnerability in the middle east.

O~’Sullivan 13 (Meghan, professor at Harvard University~’s Kennedy School of Government and former deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration, ~’Energy Independence~’ Alone Won~’t Boost U.S. Power, Feb 14, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/-energy-independence-alone-won-t-boost-u-s-power.html-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/-energy-independence-alone-won-t-boost-u-s-power.html, CMR)

Still, despite all this good news, the U.S. energy boom
AND
it was when Uncle Sam secured much of its oil from Saudi Arabia.


1NC – North America Adv Frontline



1. No solvency-Regional cooperation high now – multiple indicators

WSJ 5/2/13 ("Statement: U.S., Mexico Stress Greater Cooperation", http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/05/02/statement-u-s-mexico-stress-greater-cooperation/-http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/05/02/statement-u-s-mexico-stress-greater-cooperation/, CMR)

Economic Competitiveness¶ Underpinning our successful United States-Mexico economic relationship are trade and
AND
their interest in maintaining close coordination with regards to other relevant trade negotiations.

2. No solvency- Full integration impossible —- too many barriers

Economist 11 ("The push for deeper ties peters out", Feb 24, http://www.economist.com/node/18229546-http://www.economist.com/node/18229546, CMR)

WHEN Canada, Mexico and the United States implemented the North American Free-Trade
AND
the next North American summit will probably prove just as difficult to schedule.

3. Turn- The plan causes a huge protectionist backlash

Field 12 (Alan M, "Will protectionist murmurs deter efforts to forge even closer economic integration", July 5, http://www.canadiansailings.ca/?p=4319~~%23sthash.EBghHG0k.dpuf-http://www.canadiansailings.ca/?p=4319, CMR)

Although current NAFTA provisions for labour are "archaic," said Ms. Greenwood,
AND
– and yet equally challenged by competition from other regions of the world.

4. That will force Obama to bash NAFTA – turns case

O~’Brien 8 (Dan, Senior Editor – Economic Intelligence Unit, "Our Vested Interest in a McCain Win", Sunday Business Post, 11-2, http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=GUEST+WRITER-qqqs=commentandanalysis-qqqid=37213-qqqx=1.asp-http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=GUEST+WRITER-qqqs=commentandanalysis-qqqid=37213-qqqx=1.asp, CMR)

Anti-globalisation sentiment is widespread in the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been
AND
North American Free Trade Agreement. Obama may not be able to resist.


5. The Unipolar Moment is over and can~’t be recovered - Even if the United States is the preeminent power, the financial crash of 08 means that they won~’t be able to prevent competition

Rachman 11 (Gideon Rachman, Financial Times chief foreign affairs commentator, Zero-Sum Future, 2011, pp 3-4)

But the economic crisis that struck the world in 2008 has changed the logic of
AND
the "unipolar moment" that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union

6. Heg doesn~’t solve war – No threats require primacy and other factors ensure security.


Friedman and Preble 10 (Benjamin Friedman is a research fellow in defense and homeland security studies at the Cato Institute, Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint, September 22, 2010 Cato Policy Analysis No. 667 September 23, 2010 http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/PA667.pdf-http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/PA667.pdf

The United States confuses what it wants from its military, which is global primacy
AND
resentment. Global military primacy is a game not worth the candle.56

7. Decline wouldn~’t cause war – states have an incentive to avoid it.


Zakaria 08 (Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International, 2008, The Post-American World, p. 244)

In certain areas – the South China Sea, for example – U.S
AND
futile and unnecessary. Small work-arounds might be just as effective.


1NC – Solvency Frontline


No Solvency – Mexico says no - the new Nieto administration in Mexico is less likely to cooperate with the US.

O~’Neil 4/29/13

Shannon O~’Neil is Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher. She holds a BA from Yale University, an MA in International Relations from Yale University, and a PhD in Government from Harvard University. "Obama Heads to Mexico" Latin America~’s Moment http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/04/29/obama-heads-to-mexico/

Yet no less important for the two neighbors is security. Under Felipe Calderón~’s administration
AND
States on a day-to-day basis as much as Mexico.

Plan fails and will be rejected – internal reform is a pre-requisite to investment

Hufbauer %26 Scott ~’5
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since ~’92, was the Marcus
Wallenberg Professor of Int~’l Finance Diplomacy @ Georgetown University, AND Jeffrey J, senior fellow, joined the Inst for Int~’l Economic in ~’83, visiting lecturer @ Princeton, "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges", page number below

To generate significant sums required for such investments, Mexico will need to attract both
AND
first willing to tap its own resources. ~~[page 472-473~~]

No chance the plan solves – only trilateral cooperation with Canada can ensure successful integration

Pastor 12 – prof and director of the Center for North American Studies @ American
Robert A, Beyond the Continental Divide, July/August, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1269-http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1269, CMR

The problem is that our leaders do not think continentally. As long as they
AND
our three great countries, but only if we first see the possibility.

Plan won~’t secure long-term investment – countries not convinced of benefits

Pastor 13 – Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies at American University (Robert A, "Speed Bumps, Potholes, and Roadblocks on the North American Superhighway", Winter, Lexis, CMR)

None of the many proposals that have been advanced for the region can be achieved
AND
wider Community that could attract the support of the people and their legislatures.

Immigration 1NC


Illegal immigration a thing of the past – multiple factors and recent experience prove

Cave 13 (Damien, "In Mexican Villages, Few Are Left to Dream of U.S.", April 2, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/world/americas/new-wave-of-mexican-immigrants-seems-unlikely.html?pagewanted=all-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/world/americas/new-wave-of-mexican-immigrants-seems-unlikely.html?pagewanted=all, CMR)

But past experience and current trends in both Mexico and the United States suggest that
AND
Mexico three or four decades ago, they might decide to go south."

Trend for illegal immigration is negative – especially for Mexico

Plumer 13 (Brad, "Graph of the Day: Illegal immigration has slowed since 2007", Jan 28, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/28/graph-of-the-day-illegal-immigration-has-dropped-sharply-since-2007/-http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/28/graph-of-the-day-illegal-immigration-has-dropped-sharply-since-2007/, CMR)

So how many people would that affect? At the moment, there are roughly
AND
a return to the levels of Mexican unauthorized immigration of a decade ago."

Illegal immigration from Mexico declining

Muskal 12/6/12 (Michael, "Illegal immigration to U.S. stays down, Pew~’s latest numbers show", http://articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/06/nation/la-na-nn-pew-illegal-immigration-down-20121206-http://articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/06/nation/la-na-nn-pew-illegal-immigration-down-20121206, CMR)

There are about 11.1 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United States,
AND
000, and the majority arrived legally, according to the center~’s estimates.


Impact Turn


Illegals are better for the economy than legal immigrants

Hanson 07 (Gordon, Professor Hanson holds the Pacific Economic Cooperation Chair in International Economic Relations at UC San Diego in a report to the COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, "The Economic¶ Logic of Illegal¶ Immigration," ME)
This analysis concludes that there is little evidence that legal immigration is¶ economically preferable
AND
between jobs,¶ limiting their benefit to the U.S. economy.





Neg Rd 1 Tournament v Cuba Oil


Condition CP
The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American oil companies to participate in the development of Cuba’s energy resources if and only if the Cuban government implements economic liberalization reforms, including engaging international financial institutions and reducing restrictions on foreign direct investment.
Only the counterplan solves Cuban growth and democracy – US engagement in economic liberalization ensures stable transition post-Castro. And they’d say yes.
Perez 2010
[David A. Perez, Yale Law School, JD, 2010, Harvard Latino Law Review, Spring, 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, America’s Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department, p. 206-10]

Thus, the United States should recognize that the Cuban government has little choice
AND
, may also prevent a costly civil war during the inevitably painful transition.

Only conditioning with Cuba avoids politics
Hakim et al, 12
Peter Hakim, Andrés Rozental, Rubens Barbosa, Riordan Roett, Ruben Olmos
Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor, Peter Hakim is president emeritus and senior fellow of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank on Western Hemisphere affairs. He served as president of the Dialogue from 1993 to 2010, writes and speaks widely on hemispheric issues, and has testified more than a dozen times before Congress. His articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Miami Herald, Los Angeles Times, and Financial Times, and in newspapers and journals in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and other Latin American nations. He is a regular guest on CNN, BBC, CBS, CNN en Español and other prominent news stations around the world. He wrote a monthly column for the Christian Science Monitor for nearly ten years, and now serves as a board member of Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica and editorial advisor to Americaeconomia, where he also publishes a regular column11/8/12 http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3135

What Will Obama's Second Term Mean for Latin America? Q: Barack Obama was
AND
Latin America over the last four years than has traditionally been the case.

Renewables DA

A. Uniqueness – Multiple issues with offshore drilling rigs of Cuba make it very likely that oil companies will not keep drilling there
Jeff Frank 05/29/13 Jeff Franks is the Reuters Chief Correspondent for Texas, based in Houston and Reporter. “Cuban oil hopes sputter as Russians give up for now on well” http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/cuba-oil-idUSL2N0EA00W20130529

There is also Cuba's history of failed wells, which makes it hard to compete
AND
It is going to be extremely challenging (for Cuba)," he said.
And, Renewable Energy is winning the investment race
American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE), California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF), and Climate Policy Initiative 6/25 (ACORE, a 501(c)(3) non-profit membership organization, is dedicated to building a secure and prosperous America with clean, renewable energy. ACORE provides a common educational platform for a wide range of interests in the renewable energy community, focusing on technology, finance and policy. We convene thought leadership forums and create energy industry partnerships to communicate the economic, security and environmental benefits of renewable energy. Founded in 2004, the California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF) is a family of non-profit organizations working together to accelerate the movement of clean energy technologies along the continuum from innovation to infrastructure. Using tools from finance, public policy and technological innovation, CalCEF pursues these goals at the local, state and national levels via three affiliated entities: CalCEF Ventures, an evergreen investment fund; CalCEF Innovations, which leads CalCEF’s analysis and solutions development; and CalCEF Catalyst, an industry acceleration platform. Climate Policy Initiative is an analysis and advisory organization that works to improve the most important energy and land use policies in the world. An independent, not-for-profit organization supported in part by a grant from the Open Society Foundations, CPI has offices and programs in Brazil, China, Europe, India, Indonesia, and the United States. “Strategies to Scale-Up U.S. Renewable Energy Investment” http://www.oregonwave.org/wp-content/uploads/Strategies-to-Scale-Up-US-Renewable-Energy-Investment.pdf)

Private sector investment in the U.S. renewable energy sector has grown significantly
AND
to produce more of the energy we consume here in the United States.

B. Link - Plan causes massive investment in Cuban Oil
Benjamin-Alvadaro 6 (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,” http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)
Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face
AND
confidence, trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region.
C. Internal Link – Reliance on oil production crushes the transition to renewables
CBO, 2012 (Congressional Budget Office, “Energy Security in the United States”, May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S.
AND
the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38
D. Impact – Renewable Transition is critical to solve global warming
Leahy, ’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, “Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts”, Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting
AND
future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.
And, Positive feedbacks ensure runaway warming, causes extinction
Speth 2008[James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic
AND
and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.

Ptx DA

A. Congress will pass trade promotion authority for Obama now, despite partisanship on other issues.

Barfield 7/3/13 Claude Barfield is a Resident Scholar at AEI and a former consultant to the office of the US Trade Representative, July 3, 2013, “On trade, Republicans have Speaker Boehner’s back” http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/on-trade-republicans-have-speaker-boehners-back/

John Boehner still has much to fear from the rambunctious younger cohorts of his Republican
AND
scrambling for votes, as was the case recently with the agriculture bill.

B. Overwhelming congressional backlash and executive bureaucracy resistance require mass PC even if plan never goes through congress - zero sum with higher priorities on agenda
LeoGrande, 12
William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf
Can Obama Break the Stalemate? Many of the same forces that prevented Obama from
AND
way to a wide range of state-to-state cooperative agreements.

C. Internal Link - Obama’s capital is critical to passing Trade promotion authority.

Politi, 5/20/13 James. Financial Times [London (UK)] 20 May 2013 Financial Times US economics and trade correspondent “US business keen to promote 'fast track' trade deals: Political debate” Proquest

A campaign has been launched to 'educate' legislators on the benefits involved, writes,
AND
though TPP is more contentious especially after the announcement that Japan would accede.


D. – Impact Passing TPA is critical to the future viability of the WTO – which will collapse now.
Jeffrey Schott 6/14/13 Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Payoff from the World Trade Agenda
Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC
June 14, 2013 http://www.piie.com/publications/papers/transcript-20130614.pdf

Now, what are the prospects for Bali? Well, they’re not so good
AND
bigger WTO package that would be pulled together and accelerated negotiations post Bali.

E. Impact WTO credibility key to cooperation – fosters peace and solves conflict
Blanco 2013 (Herminio Blanco, AllAfrica Staff Writer, 4-29-13, “The relevance of the World Trade Organization for Africa”, http://www.tralac.org/2013/04/29/the-relevance-of-the-world-trade-organization-for-africa/)

There is an urgent need to preserve the credibility of the WTO as a forum for negotiations among its Members and restore the full relevance of the Organization

F.WTO credibility key to cooperation – fosters peace and solves conflict====
Blanco 2013 (Herminio Blanco, AllAfrica Staff Writer, 4-29-13, "The relevance of the World Trade Organization for Africa", http://www.tralac.org/2013/04/29/the-relevance-of-the-world-trade-organization-for-africa/)

There is an urgent need to preserve the credibility of the WTO as a forum
AND
but especially those of smaller size and the least developed countries of Africa.



No War

A2: No extinction

Nuclear war will escalate --- restraint would invite aggression
Dennis Ray Morgan 9, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea, Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December 2009, Pages 683-693
And what many people fail to realize is what a precarious, hair-trigger
AND
, to a life of unimaginable misery and suffering in a nuclear winter.

Nuclear war causes extinction—most qualified evidence
Robock ’11 (Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, “Nuclear winter is a real and present danger”, May 18, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v473/n7347/full/473275a.html, CMR)
In the 1980s, discussion and debate about the possibility of a 'nuclear winter' helped
AND
more recently — for consideration of new scientific results in US nuclear policy.
Researchers confirm this conclusion
Wickersham 10 (University of Missouri adjunct professor of Peace Studies and a member of The Missouri University Nuclear Disarmament Education Team, author book about nuclear disarmament education (Bill, 4/11/10, “Threat of ‘nuclear winter’ remains New START treaty is step in right direction.” http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/2010/apr/11/threat-of-nuclear-winter-remains/)
In addressing the environmental consequences of nuclear war, Columbian Steve Starr has written a
AND
war fought with thousands of strategic nuclear weapons would leave the Earth uninhabitable.”

A2: War wont happen


Prefer specific scenarios - even if things make war more difficult it doesn’t make it unthinkable
James Wood Forsyth, Professor, National Security Studies and Thomas E. Griffith Jr., Dean of Faculty and Academic Programs, National War College, "Through the Glass Darkly: The Unlikely Demise of Great-Power War," STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, Fall 2007, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA509123
The United States cannot prepare to put down any and all potential rivals. The
AND
-power war has a bright future, however tragic that might seem.

War is likely
Miller 2011
[Paul, assistant professor of international security studies – National Defense University, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/16/how_dangerous_is_the_world_part_ii]
Some scholars are unimpressed with the supposed threats from Russia and China. The end
AND
competition among big states remains a permanent and dangerous feature of world politics.

Self-interest proves
Coker 2011
[Christopher Coker is Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and
AND
willing to avenge themselves for any slight they feel has been inflicted upon them

A2: Detterence

Deterrence fails – imperfect information
Krieger 8 – Dr. Dave, Founder of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
At the Nuclear Precipice, p.5
During the Cold War the possession and development of nuclear weapons were justified in public
AND
network without a homeland and led by willing martyrs who cannot be deterred.
Nuclear taboo is eroding
Potter 10 [Dr. William Potter is Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies and Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies (MIIS). “In Search of the Nuclear Taboo: Past, Present, and Future” Proliferation Papers, No. 31, Winter 2010, Chetan]
Less positive indicators of the vitality and durability of any non-use norm,
AND
trigger at least a departure from the current norm/tradition/taboo.
International institutions don’t solve the impact – major powers will disregard them if they want to.
Krieger 8 – Dr. Dave, Founder of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
At the Nuclear Precipice, p.24
10. There have been trends in recent years for international law to be disregarded
AND
who desire to use force illegally and flout the rules of international law.

A2: Interdependence

Economic interdependence doesn’t check
Antov 11 [Michael – Department of Political Science at Duke University, “Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: The Implications of Membership in International Economic, Financial, and Monetary Organizations and Multilateral Preferential Trade Agreements”, December 15th, 2011, http://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/5095/2011-12-15%20Milen%20Antov%20Senior%20Thesis.pdf?sequence=1, Chetan]
In contrast to the liberal arguments, realists have argued that in an anarchic world
AND
liberals have considered a diversity of conflict types, primarily focusing on MIDs.


Economy Adv 1NC

Drilling profits will be slow – not solve dependence or cutoff fears
Emily A. PetersonDaniel J. Whittle, J.D.and Douglas N. Rader, Ph.DDecember 2012 “Bridging the GulfFinding Common Ground on Environmental and Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba”, http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf
Energy experts also note that examples from deep water exploratory drilling around the ¶ world
AND
Piñón said. “You don’t just turn the faucet on overnight.”25
No supply cutoff – new Venezuelan president is an ally
Peter Orsi 4/5 “Cuba avoids oil cutoff for now as Chavez ally narrowly wins Venezuela presidential election”, http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Cuba+avoids+cutoff+Chavez+ally+narrowly+wins+Venezuela+presidential+election/8244434/story.html
Cubans were relieved Monday by the announcement that the late leader Hugo Chavez's hand-
AND
the subsidies for that period. ... The clock's ticking for that relationship."
Bioterror risk is low—dispersal problems, tech barriers, risk of back spread—experts agree
John Mueller, Professor, Political Science, Ohio State University, OVERBLOWN: HOW POLITICIANS AND THE TERRORISM INDUSTRY INFLATE NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS, AND WHY WE BELIEVE THEM, 2009, p. 21-22.
For the most destructive results, biological weapons need to be dispersed in very low
AND
know about biological warfare the easier he seems to think the task is.""
No risk of bioterror and there’s no impact.
Alan Reynolds on March 11, 2010 (Senior Fellow at CATO Institute and former Director of Economic Research at the Hudson Institute, “Anthrax and the WMD Fear Lobby,” http://original.antiwar.com/alan-reynolds/2010/03/10/anthrax-and-the-wmd-fear-lobby/)
Nuclear warfare is still counted as WMD, yet the WMD Commission is more afraid
AND
more federal dollars to those using scare tactics to raid the empty Treasury.

A2 LNG

Zero risk of LNG explosions – empirics and new tech
Melhem et al 06 – PhD, Professor of Structural Engineering
(Dr. G. A. Melhem, Dr. A. S. Kalelkar, Dr. S. Saraf “Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths” updated 2006, http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf)
Historical review of LNG safety in the United States and worldwide
The LNG industry in the United States and worldwide enjoys an exceptional marine and land
AND
general public fatality has occurred anywhere in the world because of LNG operations.
This exceptional safety record can be attributed to several key factors: (a)
AND
and safe separation distances) is common practice in LNG systems and operations.
LNG explosions don’t cause extinction
AS Kalelkar, 8/2006, Dr. G. A. Melhem (President and CEO @ ioMosaic), Dr. A. S. Kalelkar (Principal Consultant @ ioMosaic), Dr. S. Saraf (partner @ ioMosaic), and Henry Ozog (general partner @ ioMosaic), “Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths,” ioMosaic Corporation (a leading provider of safety and risk management consulting services), http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf
Myth No. 1 An LNG tanker holds thirty three million gallons of LNG, or twenty billion gallons of natural gas, the energy equivalent of fifty five Hiroshima bombs.
Fact :The estimation of hazard based on energy content is very misleading and erroneous. Using the same flawed reasoning relating LNG energy content to hazard potential, one can conclude that:
• 3 hours of sun shine over 10 square feet equals 3.2 lbs of TNT explosive
A 24 gal automobile gasoline tank equals 1,225 lbs of TNT explosive
• 1,000 lbs of wood equals 3,530 lbs of TNT explosive
• 1,000 lbs of coal equals 4,470 lbs of TNT explosive
Hazard potential depends on both the amount of energy and the rate at which it is released. Energy release during LNG burning is relatively slow. Explosion energy is released “lightning-like” causing the formation of a shock wave that travels outwards and can cause severe damage to people and property.
No impact and no incentive for an LNG attack
Farrell 7 (Richard Farrell, Summer 2007, analyst for Chamber Corporation, “Maritime Terrorism,” Naval War College Review, Vol 60 No 3, EBSCO)
A recent study by the ioMosaic Corporation draws upon field measurements, operational information,
AND
Powerball or Megabucks lottery several times simultaneously. For impact, p. 22

Environment 1NC

No drilling in the squo – all companies have bailed.
Mary O'Grady (is a member of the editorial board at The Wall Street Journa) WSJ – April 24, 2013 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324474004578442511561458392.html
Then came promises of an oil boom and last week the predictable bust. The
AND
to Asia. Last week came the end of shallow-water drilling.
Status quo solves – US inspections of rigs
Padgett 12 (Tim, “The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms Length Over Spill Prevention”, 1/27, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)
On Christmas Eve, a massive, Chinese-made maritime oil rig, the
AND
, says the Cubans "seem very motivated to do the right thing."
Cuban drilling is safe – access to technology and safety standards prove
Sadowksi 12 (Richard – Managing Editor of Production of the Journal of International Business and Law Vol. X, J.D Candidate at Hofstra University, “Cuban Offshore Drilling: Preparation and Prevention within the Framework of the United States’ Embargo”, 2012, http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1497&context=sdlp)
Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the
AND
from being uti - lized, foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives. 66
Environment is resilient
Easterbrook 95 (Gregg, Distinguished Fellow – Fullbright Foundation, A Moment on Earth, p. 25)
In the aftermath of events such as Love Canal or the Exxon Valdez oil spill
AND
are pinpricks compared to forces of the magnitude nature is accustomed to resisting.
No extinction
Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Distinguished Fellow – Fullbright Foundation, “We’re All Gonna Die!”, Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1&topic=&topic_set=)
If we're talking about doomsday - the end of human civilization - many scenarios simply
AND
as he was, wrote Remembrance of Things Past while lying in bed.
Humans will survive despite biodiversity loss
Sagoff 97 (Mark, Senior Research Scholar @ Institute for Philosophy and Public policy in School of Public Affairs @ U. Maryland, William and Mary Law Review, “INSTITUTE OF BILL OF RIGHTS LAW SYMPOSIUM DEFINING TAKINGS: PRIVATE PROPERTY AND THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT REGULATION: MUDDLE OR MUDDLE THROUGH? TAKINGS JURISPRUDENCE MEETS THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT”, 38 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 825, March, L/N)
Although one may agree with ecologists such as Ehrlich and Raven that the earth stands
AND
sense, good for mankind. The most valuable things are quite useless.


Neg Interlab Debates

1NC Topicality Economic Engagement


1 Interpretation Economic Engagement must create economic agreements and cooperation between states - Facilitating trade through investment makes the plan “commercial” and not economic.
Woolcock 13 – Stephen Woolcock, Lecturer in International Relations at The London School of Economics, and Sir Nicholas Bayne, Fellow at the International Trade Policy Unit of the London School of Economics, The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy, p. 387

Before suggesting some ways in which economic diplomacy could be seen as a distinct branch
AND
of rules and disciplines within which markets and such commercial diplomacy function.4

2. Violation the affirmative simply promotes investment and trade which is commercial engagement.
3. Reasons to vote negative –
A. Limits – Commercial engagement means that affs that develop exports, Foreign Investment, tech sharing and tourism are all topical – makes it impossible to research gutting fairness
B. Ground – Core negative disad ground is based on economic engagement – allowing commercial engagement means the negative never has a core DA to read – makes educational debate impossible

4. Topicality is a Voting Issue and should be evaluated in terms of which team has the best interpretation.

1NC Renewables DA

A. Uniqueness – Mexico’s oil production is tanking
Krauss and Malkin ’10 (“Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach” New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
In all, Mexican oil output has dropped from just short of 3.5
AND
in Chicontepec. “The problem is getting it out of the ground.”
And, Renewable Energy is winning the investment race
American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE), California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF), and Climate Policy Initiative 6/25 (ACORE, a 501(c)(3) non-profit membership organization, is dedicated to building a secure and prosperous America with clean, renewable energy. ACORE provides a common educational platform for a wide range of interests in the renewable energy community, focusing on technology, finance and policy. We convene thought leadership forums and create energy industry partnerships to communicate the economic, security and environmental benefits of renewable energy. Founded in 2004, the California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF) is a family of non-profit organizations working together to accelerate the movement of clean energy technologies along the continuum from innovation to infrastructure. Using tools from finance, public policy and technological innovation, CalCEF pursues these goals at the local, state and national levels via three affiliated entities: CalCEF Ventures, an evergreen investment fund; CalCEF Innovations, which leads CalCEF’s analysis and solutions development; and CalCEF Catalyst, an industry acceleration platform. Climate Policy Initiative is an analysis and advisory organization that works to improve the most important energy and land use policies in the world. An independent, not-for-profit organization supported in part by a grant from the Open Society Foundations, CPI has offices and programs in Brazil, China, Europe, India, Indonesia, and the United States. “Strategies to Scale-Up U.S. Renewable Energy Investment” http://www.oregonwave.org/wp-content/uploads/Strategies-to-Scale-Up-US-Renewable-Energy-Investment.pdf)

Private sector investment in the U.S. renewable energy sector has grown significantly
AND
to produce more of the energy we consume here in the United States.
B. Link – Expanded US/Mexico cooperation increases our dependence on Oil
Krauss and Malkin ’10 (“Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach” New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was
AND
an embarrassing disaster for Pemex, the latest in a string of them.

C. Internal Link – Reliance on oil production crushes the transition to renewables
CBO, 2012 (Congressional Budget Office, “Energy Security in the United States”, May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S.
AND
the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38

D. Impact – Renewable Transition is critical to solve global warming
Leahy, ’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, “Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts”, Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting
AND
future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.

And, Positive feedbacks ensure runaway warming, causes extinction
Speth 2008[James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic
AND
and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.

1NC Immigration Politics DA

a.) Uniqueness and internal link – CIR will pass – but bipartisanship is key to effective compromise
AP 7/8/13 (“Congress Is Back: Here's What's on the Bickering Agenda”, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100871129, CMR)

In the GOP-controlled House, courteous behavior, even within the majority ranks
AND
. And if you can do that, you'll have a full fix."
b.) Link – The plan ensures huge conservative backlash
Pastor ‘8 – Prof and founding director of the Center for North American Studies
Robert, The Future of North America, July/August, http://www.american.edu/sis/cnas/upload/ForeignAffairs_Pastor_On_NA_072008.pdf, CMR

The immigration debate has added insult to injury by antagonizing Mexico without accomplishing anything. Only Senator John Cornyn (R-Tex.) dared to propose a North American investment fund to help close the income gap (and thus slow immigration), but he withdrew his proposal after being criticized by conservatives. That would have helped Mexican workers much more than the eight core labor conventions proposed for inclusion in the nafta agreement.
c.) Impact – CIR is key to the economy and competitiveness
Green 7/2 - founder and president of FWD.us, an advocacy group created by technology leaders that promotes policies to keep the United States and its citizens competitive in a global economy (Joe, “House, knowledge economy needs immigrants”, http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/opinion/green-immigration-reform/index.html, CMR)

Our country has changed a lot during those 27 years, but not -- so
AND
reform to unlock those contributions and by doing so change millions of lives.
d.) Collapse of the US economic power causes nuclear war
Khalilzad 11 Zalmay was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, “ The Economy and National Security”, 2-8-11, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024, CMR

Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to
AND
, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.

1NC - Energy Adv Frontline

1. Shale Gas solves Oil Dependence in the Status Quo.

Krauss, 2012 (Clifford, national business correspondent based in Houston, covering energy, “Energy Independence in the United States” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/business/energy-environment/energy-independence-in-america-would-not-be-fully-independent.html?_r=0, LL)

EVER since the Arab oil embargoes in the 1960s and 1970s, American presidents have
AND
it’s better that it be our oil rather than from the Middle East.

2. Domestic oil production is developing now – the status quo solves.

Domm, 2013 (Patti, CNBC Executive News Editor, “US Is on Fast-Track to Energy Independence: Study” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100450133, LL)

U.S. oil and gas production is evolving so rapidly—and demand
AND
he's had some "push back but not as much as last year."



3. Can’t solve dependence on the Middle East – it’s a global market.
Duffy 12
Aimee, “Busting the Myth of Energy Independence”, Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

The global marketplace ¶ Even if we were to accept these three assumptions, there
AND
likelihood that we will continue to turn to foreign sources in the future.
4. Mexico can’t be a major producer of oil --- too many barriers, lack of interest
Duffy 12
Aimee, “Busting the Myth of Energy Independence”, Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

Assumption No. 2: Everything is fine in Mexico ¶ To put it simply
AND
it seems foolish to rely on the country for an increase in imports.


5. No solvency - Energy independence won’t solve US vulnerability in the middle east.
O’Sullivan 13 (Meghan, professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and former deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration, ’Energy Independence’ Alone Won’t Boost U.S. Power, Feb 14, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/-energy-independence-alone-won-t-boost-u-s-power.html, CMR)

Still, despite all this good news, the U.S. energy boom
AND
it was when Uncle Sam secured much of its oil from Saudi Arabia.

1NC – North America Adv Frontline


1. No solvency-Regional cooperation high now – multiple indicators
WSJ 5/2/13 (“Statement: U.S., Mexico Stress Greater Cooperation”, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/05/02/statement-u-s-mexico-stress-greater-cooperation/, CMR)

Economic Competitiveness¶ Underpinning our successful United States-Mexico economic relationship are trade and
AND
their interest in maintaining close coordination with regards to other relevant trade negotiations.
2. No solvency- Full integration impossible --- too many barriers
Economist 11 (“The push for deeper ties peters out”, Feb 24, http://www.economist.com/node/18229546, CMR)

WHEN Canada, Mexico and the United States implemented the North American Free-Trade
AND
the next North American summit will probably prove just as difficult to schedule.
3. Turn- The plan causes a huge protectionist backlash
Field 12 (Alan M, “Will protectionist murmurs deter efforts to forge even closer economic integration”, July 5, http://www.canadiansailings.ca/?p=4319#sthash.EBghHG0k.dpuf, CMR)

Although current NAFTA provisions for labour are “archaic,” said Ms. Greenwood,
AND
– and yet equally challenged by competition from other regions of the world.
4. That will force Obama to bash NAFTA – turns case
O’Brien 8 (Dan, Senior Editor – Economic Intelligence Unit, “Our Vested Interest in a McCain Win”, Sunday Business Post, 11-2, http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=GUEST+WRITER-qqqs=commentandanalysis-qqqid=37213-qqqx=1.asp, CMR)

Anti-globalisation sentiment is widespread in the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been
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North American Free Trade Agreement. Obama may not be able to resist.

5. The Unipolar Moment is over and can’t be recovered - Even if the United States is the preeminent power, the financial crash of 08 means that they won’t be able to prevent competition
Rachman 11 (Gideon Rachman, Financial Times chief foreign affairs commentator, Zero-Sum Future, 2011, pp 3-4)

But the economic crisis that struck the world in 2008 has changed the logic of
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the "unipolar moment" that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union
6. Heg doesn’t solve war – No threats require primacy and other factors ensure security.

Friedman and Preble 10 (Benjamin Friedman is a research fellow in defense and homeland security studies at the Cato Institute, Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint, September 22, 2010 Cato Policy Analysis No. 667 September 23, 2010 http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/PA667.pdf

The United States confuses what it wants from its military, which is global primacy
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resentment. Global military primacy is a game not worth the candle.56
7. Decline wouldn’t cause war – states have an incentive to avoid it.

Zakaria 08 (Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International, 2008, The Post-American World, p. 244)

In certain areas – the South China Sea, for example – U.S
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futile and unnecessary. Small work-arounds might be just as effective.

1NC – Solvency Frontline

No Solvency – Mexico says no - the new Nieto administration in Mexico is less likely to cooperate with the US.
O’Neil 4/29/13

Shannon O'Neil is Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher. She holds a BA from Yale University, an MA in International Relations from Yale University, and a PhD in Government from Harvard University. “Obama Heads to Mexico” Latin America’s Moment http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/04/29/obama-heads-to-mexico/

Yet no less important for the two neighbors is security. Under Felipe Calderón’s administration
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States on a day-to-day basis as much as Mexico.
Plan fails and will be rejected – internal reform is a pre-requisite to investment
Hufbauer & Scott ‘5
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since ’92, was the Marcus
Wallenberg Professor of Int’l Finance Diplomacy @ Georgetown University, AND Jeffrey J, senior fellow, joined the Inst for Int’l Economic in ’83, visiting lecturer @ Princeton, “NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges”, page number below

To generate significant sums required for such investments, Mexico will need to attract both
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first willing to tap its own resources. [page 472-473]
No chance the plan solves – only trilateral cooperation with Canada can ensure successful integration
Pastor 12 – prof and director of the Center for North American Studies @ American
Robert A, Beyond the Continental Divide, July/August, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1269, CMR

The problem is that our leaders do not think continentally. As long as they
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our three great countries, but only if we first see the possibility.
Plan won’t secure long-term investment – countries not convinced of benefits
Pastor 13 – Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies at American University (Robert A, “Speed Bumps, Potholes, and Roadblocks on the North American Superhighway”, Winter, Lexis, CMR)

None of the many proposals that have been advanced for the region can be achieved
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wider Community that could attract the support of the people and their legislatures.