TRENT IS COMING FOR YOU. YOU HAD BEST WRITE SOME BLOCKS.


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Aff

(Note, this is the same 1AC that we will read for the tournament. We are not reading the Olsen and Lee card on relations)
Mexico POEs
Advantages:
  1. TPP Adv
  2. Global Supply Chains Adv

Outline:

1AC – Plan

The United States federal government should increase cooperative investment in land ports of entry with Mexico.

1AC – TPP Advantage

Cooperation on border efficiency is critical to developing a common agenda on trade with Mexico for the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement.
Villareal & Fergusson 2013
M. Angeles Villareal Congressional Research Service Specialist in International Trade and Finance; Ian F. Fergusson Congressional Research Service Specialist in International Trade and Finance “NAFTA at 20: Overview and trade effects.” Congressional Research Service . . This article is available at DigitalCommons@ILR: http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/1034

The rising number of regional trade agreements throughout the world, in addition to the
AND
more energy to improving cooperation and enhancing efficiency in cross-border trade.


Only cooperation with Mexico in the TPP will create strong enough incentives for China to join the agreement.
Wilson May 2013
Christopher E. Wilson Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. “A U.S.-Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive Region” in New Ideas for a New Era: Policy Options for the Next Stage in U.S.-Mexico Relations Woodrow Wilson Center Mexico Institute Print Edition, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_new_era.pdf

The United States and Mexico are among the most open economies in the world,
AND
. gets ready to begin negotiating a trade agreement with the European Union.

If the TPP excludes China, the pivot to Asia will be perceived as containment and create US-China conflict in Asia.
Kissinger, 2012 Henry A. A recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, he served as National Security Advisor and later concurrently as Secretary of State in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. "The Future of US–Chinese Relations." Foreign Affairs 91.2 (2012): 44-5.

The current world order was built largely without Chinese participation, and hence China sometimes
AND
-sum issues, such as territory and security, may grow insurmountable.


A confrontational US-China relationship causes major power war.
Ratner, 2013 Dr. Ely Ratner is the Deputy Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Dr. Ratner recently served in the Office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs at the State Department as the lead political officer covering China’s external relations in Asia. "Rebalancing to Asia with an Insecure China." The Washington Quarterly 36.2 (2013): 21-38.

China's foreign policies have for decades reflected the principles of biding time, pursuing a
AND
—are chief among the tasks of U.S. China policy.

War between China and the US would go nuclear.
Goldstein 2013 First Things First The Pressing Danger of Crisis Instability in U.S.-China Relations Avery Goldstein is the David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, and Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. International Security, Vol. 37, No. 4 (Spring 2013), pp. 49–89

For at least the next decade, the advantage of the United States in terms
AND
-American crisis will render all speculation about the long term tragically moot.



1AC - Global Supply Chains Adv

We on the verge of a perfect storm due to border congestion that will choke North American supply chains and devastate manufacturing.
Blank & Lee 2009
Transportation infrastructure and competitiveness (revision July 1, 2009) Report prepared for the Woodrow Wilson Center Mexico Institute and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte research project, “The U.S.-Mexico Border: A Discussion on Sub-National Policy Options” By Stephen Blank and Erik Lee

The North American economy can best be visualized in the early 21st century as a
AND
/11 had not occurred, trade would be choked at the border."



The plan is a key model for facilitating border efficiency and reducing supply chain costs.
Ed Gerwin 2013 Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy for the Third Way Economic Program | MARCH 2013 Rooting for Canada and Mexico in the TPP http://content.thirdway.org/publications/672/Third_Way_Policy_Memo_-_Rooting_for_Canada_and_Mexico_in_the_TPP_.pdf

North America’s shared production is deep and extensive. Cars co-produced by Canada
AND
America’s integrated economies to business opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. 25


US-Mexico border policy is the model for the world – the status quo push for hard borders will spread and fail without the plan.
Papademetriou , Meissner, & Sohnen May 2013

Demetrios G. Papademetriou is President and Co-Founder of the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a Washington-based think tank dedicated exclusively to the study of international migration ; Doris Meissner, former Commissioner of the US Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), is a Senior Fellow at MPI, where she directs the Institute’s US immigration policy work. Eleanor Sohnen is a Policy Analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, where she works for the Regional Migration Study Group. Ms. Sohnen previously served as a consultant to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) “Thinking Regionally to Compete Globally: Leveraging Migration and Human Capital in the U.S., Mexico, and Central America” Migration Policy Institute and the Wilson Center. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/rmsg_final_report

14. Border security between and among Mexico and the Northern Triangle of Central
AND
from the United States will push the policy envelope toward ever harder borders.



Reducing supply chain barriers globally is the most important and effective way to stimulate the global economy.
World Economic Forum February 13, 2013. Enabling Trade: Valuing Growth Opportunities A World Economic Forum report in collaboration with Bain & Company and the World Bank http://www.weforum.org/ reports/enabling-trade-valuing-growth-opportunities.

Reducing supply chain barriers to trade could increase GDP by nearly 5% and trade
AND
resources to more productive industries and firms, thereby increasing productivity and wages.


Solvency

First, the plan facilitates improved US-Mexico cooperation while streamlining ports of entry
Bonner & Rozental 2009
Robert C. Bonner Former Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Former Administrator, Drug Enforcement Administration Andrés Rozental Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico; Former President and Founder Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI) “Managing the United States-Mexico Border: Cooperative Solutions to Common Challenges “ Report of the Binational Task Force on the United States-Mexico Border http://www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=30


The solutions ¶ We believe that that the most effective and efficient way to enhance
AND
the frontier to assist U.S. ¶ Customs and Border Protection.



Second, Mexico is a ready and willing partner for border infrastructure improvements, but the United States has to be the first mover – plan would catalyze growth in legal trade
O’Neil 2013
Shannon O'Neil is Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), “Mexico Makes It: A Transformed Society, Economy, and Government” March/April 2013 Foreign Affairs http://www.cfr.org/mexico/mexico-makes/p30098

BORDER BUDDIES Since NAFTA was passed, U.S.-Mexican trade has more
AND
to boost the United States' exports, jobs, and overall economic growth.



Third, expanding border crossing would pose no risk to security – minor investments on expediting flows would reap massive economic returns
Bonner & Rozental 2009
Robert C. Bonner Former Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Former Administrator, Drug Enforcement Administration Andrés Rozental Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico; Former President and Founder Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI) “Managing the United States-Mexico Border: Cooperative Solutions to Common Challenges “ Report of the Binational Task Force on the United States-Mexico Border http://www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=30

Congestion at crossing points imposes considerable costs on tourists, commuters, consumers, business
AND
, at any port of entry, with minimal variation about this average.



Finally, plan solves border security – the majority of illegal immigration and illicit trafficking happens at legitimate POEs
Wilson 2013
Christopher E. Wilson Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “Focus immigration security on official border crossings” Dallas Morning News April 11 http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/latest-columns/20130411-christopher-wilson-focus-immigration-security-on-official-border-crossings.ece?action=reregister
As the senatorial Gang of Eight finalizes its immigration reform bill, it has become
AND
borders and among federal, state and local government agencies and law enforcement.



Tournament - Rd 1 v. NAIF


Topicality

1 Interpretation Economic Engagement must create economic agreements and cooperation between states - Facilitating trade through investment makes the plan “commercial” and not economic.
Woolcock 13 – Stephen Woolcock, Lecturer in International Relations at The London School of Economics, and Sir Nicholas Bayne, Fellow at the International Trade Policy Unit of the London School of Economics, The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy, p. 387

Before suggesting some ways in which economic diplomacy could be seen as a distinct branch
AND
of rules and disciplines within which markets and such commercial diplomacy function.4

2. Violation the affirmative simply promotes investment and trade which is commercial engagement.
3. Reasons to vote negative –
A. Limits – Commercial engagement means that affs that develop exports, Foreign Investment, tech sharing and tourism are all topical – makes it impossible to research gutting fairness
B. Ground – Core negative disad ground is based on economic engagement – allowing commercial engagement means the negative never has a core DA to read – makes educational debate impossible

4. Topicality is a Voting Issue and should be evaluated in terms of which team has the best interpretation.

1NC Renewables DA

A. Uniqueness – Mexico’s oil production is tanking
Krauss and Malkin ’10 (“Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach” New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
In all, Mexican oil output has dropped from just short of 3.5
AND
in Chicontepec. “The problem is getting it out of the ground.”
And, Renewable Energy is winning the investment race
American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE), California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF), and Climate Policy Initiative 6/25 (ACORE, a 501(c)(3) non-profit membership organization, is dedicated to building a secure and prosperous America with clean, renewable energy. ACORE provides a common educational platform for a wide range of interests in the renewable energy community, focusing on technology, finance and policy. We convene thought leadership forums and create energy industry partnerships to communicate the economic, security and environmental benefits of renewable energy. Founded in 2004, the California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF) is a family of non-profit organizations working together to accelerate the movement of clean energy technologies along the continuum from innovation to infrastructure. Using tools from finance, public policy and technological innovation, CalCEF pursues these goals at the local, state and national levels via three affiliated entities: CalCEF Ventures, an evergreen investment fund; CalCEF Innovations, which leads CalCEF’s analysis and solutions development; and CalCEF Catalyst, an industry acceleration platform. Climate Policy Initiative is an analysis and advisory organization that works to improve the most important energy and land use policies in the world. An independent, not-for-profit organization supported in part by a grant from the Open Society Foundations, CPI has offices and programs in Brazil, China, Europe, India, Indonesia, and the United States. “Strategies to Scale-Up U.S. Renewable Energy Investment” http://www.oregonwave.org/wp-content/uploads/Strategies-to-Scale-Up-US-Renewable-Energy-Investment.pdf)

Private sector investment in the U.S. renewable energy sector has grown significantly
AND
to produce more of the energy we consume here in the United States.
B. Link – Expanded US/Mexico cooperation increases our dependence on Oil
Krauss and Malkin ’10 (“Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach” New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was
AND
an embarrassing disaster for Pemex, the latest in a string of them.

C. Internal Link – Reliance on oil production crushes the transition to renewables
CBO, 2012 (Congressional Budget Office, “Energy Security in the United States”, May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S.
AND
the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38
D. Impact – Renewable Transition is critical to solve global warming
Leahy, ’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, “Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts”, Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting
AND
future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.
And, Positive feedbacks ensure runaway warming, causes extinction
Speth 2008[James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic
AND
and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.

1NC – Trade Promotion Authority

A. Congress will pass trade promotion authority for Obama now, despite partisanship on other issues.

Barfield 7/3/13 Claude Barfield is a Resident Scholar at AEI and a former consultant to the office of the US Trade Representative, July 3, 2013, “On trade, Republicans have Speaker Boehner’s back” http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/on-trade-republicans-have-speaker-boehners-back/

John Boehner still has much to fear from the rambunctious younger cohorts of his Republican
AND
scrambling for votes, as was the case recently with the agriculture bill.
B. Link- Engaging Mexico drains PC
Farnsworth 12 – VP of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society (Eric, “The United States and Mexico: The Path Forward”, Nov 30, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/, CMR)

The election of Enrique Peña Nieto and the re-election of President Obama mean that the U.S.-Mexican relationship has a unique opportunity to grow closer and bring numerous benefits to both sides of the border. To fully appreciate this unique opportunity, both sides must invest political capitaland be prepared to engage domestic public opinion when it comes to explaining why our countries are united by much more than a fence.

C. Internal Link - Obama’s capital is critical to passing Trade promotion authority. Politi, 5/20/13 (James. Financial Times [London (UK)] 20 May 2013 Financial Times US economics and trade correspondent “US business keen to promote 'fast track' trade deals: Political debate” Proquest)
A campaign has been launched to 'educate' legislators on the benefits involved, writes,
AND
though TPP is more contentious especially after the announcement that Japan would accede.


D. – Impact Passing TPA is critical to the future viability of the WTO – which will collapse now.
Jeffrey Schott 6/14/13 Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Payoff from the World Trade Agenda
Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC
June 14, 2013 http://www.piie.com/publications/papers/transcript-20130614.pdf

Now, what are the prospects for Bali? Well, they’re not so good
AND
bigger WTO package that would be pulled together and accelerated negotiations post Bali.

E. WTO credibility key to cooperation – fosters peace and solves conflict
Blanco 2013 (Herminio Blanco, AllAfrica Staff Writer, 4-29-13, “The relevance of the World Trade Organization for Africa”, http://www.tralac.org/2013/04/29/the-relevance-of-the-world-trade-organization-for-africa/)

There is an urgent need to preserve the credibility of the WTO as a forum
AND
but especially those of smaller size and the least developed countries of Africa.



1NC – Immigration Adv Frontline

1. Illegal immigration from Mexico declining
Muskal 12/6/12 (Michael, “Illegal immigration to U.S. stays down, Pew's latest numbers show”, http://articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/06/nation/la-na-nn-pew-illegal-immigration-down-20121206, CMR)

There are about 11.1 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United States,
AND
000, and the majority arrived legally, according to the center’s estimates.
2. No Solvency - deep structural problems preclude solvency for the Mexican economy – trade and investment alone aren’t able to solve
Gonzalez 2013

Aleyda González – Op-ed “The unjustified optimism over Mexico's economy” Entre Noticias Site is run by multi-awarded Mexican journalist Rubén Luengas website (www.rubenluengas.com), about News / Public Affairs from California, México and the World. 3/12/13 http://rubenluengas.com/index.php/english-posts/item/97-the-unjustified-optimism-over-mexicos-economy

Apart from the assumed agreement of political consensus, nothing has really changed in Mexico
AND
in a mediocre path in both, the short and the medium terms"


3. Turn - trade with Mexico hurts US jobs – on balance, job gains from exports are outweighed by lost manufacturing jobs
Scott 11

Robert E. Scott, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research at the Economic Policy Institute, “Heading South: U.S.-Mexico trade and job displacement after NAFTA, “ May 3, 2011, http://www.epi.org/publication/heading_south_u-s-mexico_trade_and_job_displacement_after_nafta1/

The United States had a small $1.6 billion trade surplus with Mexico
AND
pay lower wages and have less comprehensive benefits than trade-related industries.

4. Turn – Maquiladoras:
A. Expanded border crossings cause Maquiladora revival

Paley 2013

Dawn Paley is a journalist from Vancouver, BC (Coast Salish territories). She’s written for magazines and newspapers including the The Guardian, Vancouver Sun, The Globe and Mail, BC Business Magazine, and The Nation. In 2010, Dawn completed her Masters in Journalism at the University of British Columbia. “A Rough Guide to Obama’s Mexico Visit” Americas Program of the Center for International Policy 5/2/13 http://www.cipamericas.org/archives/9449?utm_source=feedly

There’s a demand from the corporate sector to build new border crossings and expand existing
AND
the US and other corporations with operations along the US/Mexico border.


B. Maquiladoras hurt the Mexican economy – cause wage stagnation and concentration of wealth

Diederich 2012

Phillippe Diederich is a freelance writer, photographer & educator. His work has appeared in the NYT, Time magazine, US News, and he has won numerous awards for his photography & writing. Born in the Dominican Republic & raised in Mexico City and Miami. “Do not be fooled by the ‘Maquiladora Economy’” July 17, 2012 http://www.voxxi.com/do-not-be-fooled-by-maquiladora-economy/#ixzz2UeLxV0Wh

Maquiladora is a Mexican word. It’s the nickname that was given to the manufacturing
AND
goods manufactured within our own economy. And the gap is getting wider.

1NC - Energy Adv Frontline

1. Domestic oil production is developing now – the status quo solves.
Domm, 2013 (Patti, CNBC Executive News Editor, “US Is on Fast-Track to Energy Independence: Study” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100450133, LL)

U.S. oil and gas production is evolving so rapidly—and demand
AND
he's had some "push back but not as much as last year."



2. Can’t solve dependence on the Middle East – it’s a global market.
Duffy 12
Aimee, “Busting the Myth of Energy Independence”, Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

The global marketplace ¶ Even if we were to accept these three assumptions, there
AND
likelihood that we will continue to turn to foreign sources in the future.
3. Mexico can’t be a major producer of oil --- too many barriers, lack of interest
Duffy 12
Aimee, “Busting the Myth of Energy Independence”, Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

Assumption No. 2: Everything is fine in Mexico ¶ To put it simply
AND
it seems foolish to rely on the country for an increase in imports.


4. No solvency - Energy independence won’t solve US vulnerability in the middle east.
O’Sullivan 13 (Meghan, professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and former deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration, ’Energy Independence’ Alone Won’t Boost U.S. Power, Feb 14, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/-energy-independence-alone-won-t-boost-u-s-power.html, CMR)

Still, despite all this good news, the U.S. energy boom
AND
it was when Uncle Sam secured much of its oil from Saudi Arabia.

1NC – North America Adv Frontline

1. No solvency- Full integration impossible --- too many barriers
Economist 11 (“The push for deeper ties peters out”, Feb 24, http://www.economist.com/node/18229546, CMR)

WHEN Canada, Mexico and the United States implemented the North American Free-Trade
AND
the next North American summit will probably prove just as difficult to schedule.
2. Turn- The plan causes a huge protectionist backlash
Field 12 (Alan M, “Will protectionist murmurs deter efforts to forge even closer economic integration”, July 5, http://www.canadiansailings.ca/?p=4319#sthash.EBghHG0k.dpuf, CMR)

Although current NAFTA provisions for labour are “archaic,” said Ms. Greenwood,
AND
– and yet equally challenged by competition from other regions of the world.
3. That will force Obama to bash NAFTA – turns case
O’Brien 8 (Dan, Senior Editor – Economic Intelligence Unit, “Our Vested Interest in a McCain Win”, Sunday Business Post, 11-2, http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=GUEST+WRITER-qqqs=commentandanalysis-qqqid=37213-qqqx=1.asp, CMR)

Anti-globalisation sentiment is widespread in the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been
AND
North American Free Trade Agreement. Obama may not be able to resist.

4. The Unipolar Moment is over and can’t be recovered - Even if the United States is the preeminent power, the financial crash of 08 means that they won’t be able to prevent competition Rachman 11 (Gideon Rachman, Financial Times chief foreign affairs commentator, Zero-Sum Future, 2011, pp 3-4)

But the economic crisis that struck the world in 2008 has changed the logic of
AND
the "unipolar moment" that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union
5. Heg doesn’t solve war – No threats require primacy and other factors ensure security.
Friedman and Preble 10 (Benjamin Friedman is a research fellow in defense and homeland security studies at the Cato Institute, Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint, September 22, 2010 Cato Policy Analysis No. 667 September 23, 2010 http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/PA667.pdf

The United States confuses what it wants from its military, which is global primacy
AND
resentment. Global military primacy is a game not worth the candle.56
6. Decline wouldn’t cause war – states have an incentive to avoid it.
Zakaria 08 (Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International, 2008, The Post-American World, p. 244)

In certain areas – the South China Sea, for example – U.S
AND
futile and unnecessary. Small work-arounds might be just as effective.

1NC – Solvency Frontline

No Solvency – Mexico says no - the new Nieto administration in Mexico is less likely to cooperate with the US.
O’Neil 4/29/13

Shannon O'Neil is Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher. She holds a BA from Yale University, an MA in International Relations from Yale University, and a PhD in Government from Harvard University. “Obama Heads to Mexico” Latin America’s Moment http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/04/29/obama-heads-to-mexico/

Yet no less important for the two neighbors is security. Under Felipe Calderón’s administration
AND
States on a day-to-day basis as much as Mexico.




Plan fails and will be rejected – internal reform is a pre-requisite to investment
Hufbauer & Scott ‘5
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since ’92, was the Marcus
Wallenberg Professor of Int’l Finance Diplomacy @ Georgetown University, AND Jeffrey J, senior fellow, joined the Inst for Int’l Economic in ’83, visiting lecturer @ Princeton, “NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges”, page number below

To generate significant sums required for such investments, Mexico will need to attract both
AND
first willing to tap its own resources. [page 472-473]
No chance the plan solves – only trilateral cooperation with Canada can ensure successful integration Pastor 12 – prof and director of the Center for North American Studies @ American Robert A, Beyond the Continental Divide, July/August, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1269, CMR

The problem is that our leaders do not think continentally. As long as they
AND
our three great countries, but only if we first see the possibility.
Plan won’t secure long-term investment – countries not convinced of benefits
Pastor 13 – Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies at American University (Robert A, “Speed Bumps, Potholes, and Roadblocks on the North American Superhighway”, Winter, Lexis, CMR)

None of the many proposals that have been advanced for the region can be achieved
AND
wider Community that could attract the support of the people and their legislatures.






Interlab Neg against NAIF


1NC Renewables DA

A. Uniqueness – Mexico’s oil production is tanking
Krauss and Malkin ’10 (“Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach” New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
In all, Mexican oil output has dropped from just short of 3.5
AND
in Chicontepec. “The problem is getting it out of the ground.”
And, Renewable Energy is winning the investment race
American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE), California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF), and Climate Policy Initiative 6/25 (ACORE, a 501(c)(3) non-profit membership organization, is dedicated to building a secure and prosperous America with clean, renewable energy. ACORE provides a common educational platform for a wide range of interests in the renewable energy community, focusing on technology, finance and policy. We convene thought leadership forums and create energy industry partnerships to communicate the economic, security and environmental benefits of renewable energy. Founded in 2004, the California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF) is a family of non-profit organizations working together to accelerate the movement of clean energy technologies along the continuum from innovation to infrastructure. Using tools from finance, public policy and technological innovation, CalCEF pursues these goals at the local, state and national levels via three affiliated entities: CalCEF Ventures, an evergreen investment fund; CalCEF Innovations, which leads CalCEF’s analysis and solutions development; and CalCEF Catalyst, an industry acceleration platform. Climate Policy Initiative is an analysis and advisory organization that works to improve the most important energy and land use policies in the world. An independent, not-for-profit organization supported in part by a grant from the Open Society Foundations, CPI has offices and programs in Brazil, China, Europe, India, Indonesia, and the United States. “Strategies to Scale-Up U.S. Renewable Energy Investment” http://www.oregonwave.org/wp-content/uploads/Strategies-to-Scale-Up-US-Renewable-Energy-Investment.pdf)

Private sector investment in the U.S. renewable energy sector has grown significantly
AND
to produce more of the energy we consume here in the United States.
B. Link – Expanded US/Mexico cooperation increases our dependence on Oil
Krauss and Malkin ’10 (“Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach” New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was
AND
an embarrassing disaster for Pemex, the latest in a string of them.

C. Internal Link – Reliance on oil production crushes the transition to renewables
CBO, 2012 (Congressional Budget Office, “Energy Security in the United States”, May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S.
AND
the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38

D. Impact – Renewable Transition is critical to solve global warming
Leahy, ’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, “Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts”, Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting
AND
future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.
And, Positive feedbacks ensure runaway warming, causes extinction
Speth 2008[James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic
AND
and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.

1NC Immigration Politics DA

a.) Uniqueness and internal link – CIR will pass – but bipartisanship is key to effective compromise
AP 7/8/13 (“Congress Is Back: Here's What's on the Bickering Agenda”, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100871129, CMR)

In the GOP-controlled House, courteous behavior, even within the majority ranks
AND
. And if you can do that, you'll have a full fix."
b.) Link – The plan ensures huge conservative backlash
Pastor ‘8 – Prof and founding director of the Center for North American Studies
Robert, The Future of North America, July/August, http://www.american.edu/sis/cnas/upload/ForeignAffairs_Pastor_On_NA_072008.pdf, CMR

The immigration debate has added insult to injury by antagonizing Mexico without accomplishing anything.Only Senator John Cornyn (R-Tex.) dared to propose a North American investment fund to help close the income gap(and thus slow immigration), but he withdrew his proposal after being criticized by conservatives. That would have helped Mexican workers much more than the eight core labor conventions proposed for inclusion in the nafta agreement.

c.) Impact – CIR is key to the economy and competitiveness
Green 7/2 - founder and president of FWD.us, an advocacy group created by technology leaders that promotes policies to keep the United States and its citizens competitive in a global economy (Joe, “House, knowledge economy needs immigrants”, http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/opinion/green-immigration-reform/index.html, CMR)

Our country has changed a lot during those 27 years, but not -- so
AND
reform to unlock those contributions and by doing so change millions of lives.

d.) Collapse of the US economic power causes nuclear war
Khalilzad 11 Zalmay was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, “ The Economy and National Security”, 2-8-11, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024, CMR

Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to
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, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.

1NC – Immigration Frontline

1. Illegal immigration a thing of the past – multiple factors and recent experience prove
Cave 13 (Damien, “In Mexican Villages, Few Are Left to Dream of U.S.”, April 2, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/world/americas/new-wave-of-mexican-immigrants-seems-unlikely.html?pagewanted=all, CMR)

But past experience and current trends in both Mexico and the United States suggest that
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Mexico three or four decades ago, they might decide to go south.”
2. Illegal immigration from Mexico declining
Muskal 12/6/12 (Michael, “Illegal immigration to U.S. stays down, Pew's latest numbers show”, http://articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/06/nation/la-na-nn-pew-illegal-immigration-down-20121206, CMR)

There are about 11.1 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United States,
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000, and the majority arrived legally, according to the center’s estimates.
3. No Solvency - deep structural problems preclude solvency for the Mexican economy – trade and investment alone aren’t able to solve
Gonzalez 2013

Aleyda González – Op-ed “The unjustified optimism over Mexico's economy” Entre Noticias Site is run by multi-awarded Mexican journalist Rubén Luengas website (www.rubenluengas.com), about News / Public Affairs from California, México and the World. 3/12/13 http://rubenluengas.com/index.php/english-posts/item/97-the-unjustified-optimism-over-mexicos-economy

Apart from the assumed agreement of political consensus, nothing has really changed in Mexico
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in a mediocre path in both, the short and the medium terms"


4. Turn - trade with Mexico hurts US jobs – on balance, job gains from exports are outweighed by lost manufacturing jobs
Scott 11

Robert E. Scott, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research at the Economic Policy Institute, “Heading South: U.S.-Mexico trade and job displacement after NAFTA, “ May 3, 2011, http://www.epi.org/publication/heading_south_u-s-mexico_trade_and_job_displacement_after_nafta1/

The United States had a small $1.6 billion trade surplus with Mexico
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pay lower wages and have less comprehensive benefits than trade-related industries.

5. Turn – Maquiladoras:
A. Expanded border crossings cause Maquiladora revival

Paley 2013

Dawn Paley is a journalist from Vancouver, BC (Coast Salish territories). She’s written for magazines and newspapers including the The Guardian, Vancouver Sun, The Globe and Mail, BC Business Magazine, and The Nation. In 2010, Dawn completed her Masters in Journalism at the University of British Columbia. “A Rough Guide to Obama’s Mexico Visit” Americas Program of the Center for International Policy 5/2/13 http://www.cipamericas.org/archives/9449?utm_source=feedly

There’s a demand from the corporate sector to build new border crossings and expand existing
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the US and other corporations with operations along the US/Mexico border.


B. Maquiladoras hurt the Mexican economy – cause wage stagnation and concentration of wealth

Diederich 2012

Phillippe Diederich is a freelance writer, photographer & educator. His work has appeared in the NYT, Time magazine, US News, and he has won numerous awards for his photography & writing. Born in the Dominican Republic & raised in Mexico City and Miami. “Do not be fooled by the ‘Maquiladora Economy’” July 17, 2012 http://www.voxxi.com/do-not-be-fooled-by-maquiladora-economy/#ixzz2UeLxV0Wh

Maquiladora is a Mexican word. It’s the nickname that was given to the manufacturing
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goods manufactured within our own economy. And the gap is getting wider.

1NC - Energy Adv Frontline

1. Shale Gas solves Oil Dependence in the Status Quo.

Krauss, 2012 (Clifford, national business correspondent based in Houston, covering energy, “Energy Independence in the United States” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/business/energy-environment/energy-independence-in-america-would-not-be-fully-independent.html?_r=0, LL)

EVER since the Arab oil embargoes in the 1960s and 1970s, American presidents have
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it’s better that it be our oil rather than from the Middle East.

2. Domestic oil production is developing now – the status quo solves.

Domm, 2013 (Patti, CNBC Executive News Editor, “US Is on Fast-Track to Energy Independence: Study” CNBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100450133, LL)

U.S. oil and gas production is evolving so rapidly—and demand
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he's had some "push back but not as much as last year."



3. Can’t solve dependence on the Middle East – it’s a global market.
Duffy 12
Aimee, “Busting the Myth of Energy Independence”, Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

The global marketplace ¶ Even if we were to accept these three assumptions, there
AND
likelihood that we will continue to turn to foreign sources in the future.
4. Mexico can’t be a major producer of oil --- too many barriers, lack of interest
Duffy 12
Aimee, “Busting the Myth of Energy Independence”, Aug 28, http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/08/28/busting-the-myth-of-energy-independence/, CMR

Assumption No. 2: Everything is fine in Mexico ¶ To put it simply
AND
it seems foolish to rely on the country for an increase in imports.


5. No solvency - Energy independence won’t solve US vulnerability in the middle east.
O’Sullivan 13 (Meghan, professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and former deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration, ’Energy Independence’ Alone Won’t Boost U.S. Power, Feb 14, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/-energy-independence-alone-won-t-boost-u-s-power.html, CMR)

Still, despite all this good news, the U.S. energy boom
AND
it was when Uncle Sam secured much of its oil from Saudi Arabia.

1NC – North America Adv Frontline


1. No solvency-Regional cooperation high now – multiple indicators
WSJ 5/2/13 (“Statement: U.S., Mexico Stress Greater Cooperation”, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/05/02/statement-u-s-mexico-stress-greater-cooperation/, CMR)

Economic Competitiveness¶ Underpinning our successful United States-Mexico economic relationship are trade and
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their interest in maintaining close coordination with regards to other relevant trade negotiations.
2. No solvency- Full integration impossible --- too many barriers
Economist 11 (“The push for deeper ties peters out”, Feb 24, http://www.economist.com/node/18229546, CMR)

WHEN Canada, Mexico and the United States implemented the North American Free-Trade
AND
the next North American summit will probably prove just as difficult to schedule.
3. Turn- The plan causes a huge protectionist backlash
Field 12 (Alan M, “Will protectionist murmurs deter efforts to forge even closer economic integration”, July 5, http://www.canadiansailings.ca/?p=4319#sthash.EBghHG0k.dpuf, CMR)

Although current NAFTA provisions for labour are “archaic,” said Ms. Greenwood,
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– and yet equally challenged by competition from other regions of the world.
4. That will force Obama to bash NAFTA – turns case
O’Brien 8 (Dan, Senior Editor – Economic Intelligence Unit, “Our Vested Interest in a McCain Win”, Sunday Business Post, 11-2, http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=GUEST+WRITER-qqqs=commentandanalysis-qqqid=37213-qqqx=1.asp, CMR)

Anti-globalisation sentiment is widespread in the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been
AND
North American Free Trade Agreement. Obama may not be able to resist.

5. The Unipolar Moment is over and can’t be recovered - Even if the United States is the preeminent power, the financial crash of 08 means that they won’t be able to prevent competition Rachman 11 (Gideon Rachman, Financial Times chief foreign affairs commentator, Zero-Sum Future, 2011, pp 3-4)

But the economic crisis that struck the world in 2008 has changed the logic of
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the "unipolar moment" that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union

6. Heg doesn’t solve war – No threats require primacy and other factors ensure security.

Friedman and Preble 10 (Benjamin Friedman is a research fellow in defense and homeland security studies at the Cato Institute, Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint, September 22, 2010 Cato Policy Analysis No. 667 September 23, 2010 http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/PA667.pdf

The United States confuses what it wants from its military, which is global primacy
AND
resentment. Global military primacy is a game not worth the candle.56

7. Decline wouldn’t cause war – states have an incentive to avoid it.
Zakaria 08 (Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International, 2008, The Post-American World, p. 244)

In certain areas – the South China Sea, for example – U.S
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futile and unnecessary. Small work-arounds might be just as effective.

1NC – Solvency Frontline

No Solvency – Mexico says no - the new Nieto administration in Mexico is less likely to cooperate with the US.
O’Neil 4/29/13

Shannon O'Neil is Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher. She holds a BA from Yale University, an MA in International Relations from Yale University, and a PhD in Government from Harvard University. “Obama Heads to Mexico” Latin America’s Moment http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/04/29/obama-heads-to-mexico/

Yet no less important for the two neighbors is security. Under Felipe Calderón’s administration
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States on a day-to-day basis as much as Mexico.




Plan fails and will be rejected – internal reform is a pre-requisite to investment
Hufbauer & Scott ‘5
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since ’92, was the Marcus
Wallenberg Professor of Int’l Finance Diplomacy @ Georgetown University, AND Jeffrey J, senior fellow, joined the Inst for Int’l Economic in ’83, visiting lecturer @ Princeton, “NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges”, page number below

To generate significant sums required for such investments, Mexico will need to attract both
AND
first willing to tap its own resources. [page 472-473]

No chance the plan solves – only trilateral cooperation with Canada can ensure successful integration Pastor 12 – prof and director of the Center for North American Studies @ American Robert A, Beyond the Continental Divide, July/August, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1269, CMR

The problem is that our leaders do not think continentally. As long as they
AND
our three great countries, but only if we first see the possibility.
Plan won’t secure long-term investment – countries not convinced of benefits
Pastor 13 – Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies at American University (Robert A, “Speed Bumps, Potholes, and Roadblocks on the North American Superhighway”, Winter, Lexis, CMR)

None of the many proposals that have been advanced for the region can be achieved
AND
wider Community that could attract the support of the people and their legislatures.

Neg Round Four


Cap K

The 1AC’s hegemonic use of the USFG to engage Latin America promotes capitalism
Petras 10, (Prof. James Petras, Professor of Sociology at Binghamton University, 12/2/10, “Latin America’s Twenty First Century Capitalism and the US Empire”, 7/5/13 SS, http://www.globalresearch.ca/latin-america-s-twenty-first-century-capitalism-and-the-us-empire/22223)

Lumpen capitalism develops a dynamic of its own, independent of its role as an
AND
first century capitalists are leading the way to further decline in imperial power.

The economic imbalances of societies are at the heart of environmental destruction and warfare, be skeptical of “natural” disasters, they exist as results of exploitation rather than divine happenings
Carey 09
(Mark Carey, assistant professor of history at Washington and Lee University where he teaches Latin American and environmental history. He won the 2008 ¶ Leopold-Hidy Prize for his article, "The History of Ice: How Glaciers Became an ¶ Endangered Species (Environmental History, July 2007), April 2009, “Latin American Environmental History: Current Trends, Interdisciplinary Insights, and¶ Future Directions”, Jstor, 7/6/13 SS, http://www.jstor.org/stable/40608469)

DISASTER SCHOLARS ARE AMONG the most prominent to blur nature-culture ¶ dichotomies,
AND
the fundamentals ¶ of social history- inherent in past human-environment interactions’

Reject the aff, thus creating space and allowing for the germination of alternative politics
Aparicio and Blaser ’08 (Juan Ricardo Aparicio, Associate Professor of Languages and Sociocultural Studies at the University of the Andes, Phd. In Anthropology from University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Mario Blaser, professor of Anthropology at University of California, Davis, “The ‘Lettered City’ and the Insurrection of Subjugated Knowledges in Latin America, Anthropological Quarterly, Vol. 81, No. 1 (Winter ’08), JSTOR http://www.jstor.org/stable/30052740 SM)

The rejection of the modern state and capitalist market as organizing vectors of social life
AND
by performing the principles of the communal system as best as they can.

Algae CP 1nc
Text: The United States federal government should amend relevant definitions in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 to include algae-derived fuels eligible for all tax credits, subsidies, and price supports.
Amending the RFS to include price supports for algae spurs green crude production. This provides clean renewable fuel – solves energy dependence and breaks the food/fuel link
Jason Pyle (Chief Executive Officer, Sapphire Energy) June 12 2008 “Renewable Fuels And Food Prices,” CQ Congressional Testimony
First, let me thank the Committee for its leadership on alternative, renewable fuels
AND
crops, or other natural resources. Sapphire has turned sunlight into gasoline.
The counter plan solves the case and is bipartisan.
Energy Washington Week, ‘8
[“Senate Energy Committee Eyes RFS revision to ease rising food prices” June 18, 2008, l/n]
Key members of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee are suggesting changes are needed
AND
on federal lands, and urban and commercial wood waste." -- Will Harrington

Food/fuel link creates unique risks for escalation – food spikes now exacerbates current economic conditions – causes rampant civil conflict *gender modified*
Manila Times November 5 2008 “Let’s attend to food security”, http://www.manilatimes.net/national/2008/nov/05/yehey/opinion/20081105opi1.html
He tells the world that the economic meltdown now afflicting the globe is gripping (
AND
30 countries and contributed to the fall of at least one elected government.
Food riots escalate to global war – ignite all regional hot spots
Bernardo V. Lopez September 10 1998 “Global recession phase two: Catastrophic (Private sector views)”, BusinessWorld
Certainly, global recession will spawn wars of all kinds. Ethnic wars can easily
AND
on the use of force and its superiority to get its ways internationally.

1NC – Trade Promotion Authority
A. Congress will pass trade promotion authority for Obama now, despite partisanship on other issues.

Barfield 7/3/13 Claude Barfield is a Resident Scholar at AEI and a former consultant to the office of the US Trade Representative, July 3, 2013, “On trade, Republicans have Speaker Boehner’s back” http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/on-trade-republicans-have-speaker-boehners-back/

John Boehner still has much to fear from the rambunctious younger cohorts of his Republican
AND
scrambling for votes, as was the case recently with the agriculture bill.
B. Cuba Sugar Lobby Link
The sugar lobby hates the plan and they’re powerful
Bastasch 2012
[Michael, Daily Caller, “Sugar lobby sweetens deal for House Republicans protecting subsidy”, 6/25, http://dailycaller.com/2012/06/25/sugar-lobby-sweetens-deal-for-house-republicans-protecting-subsidy/]
The sugar industry has spent tens of millions of dollars lobbying and donating to politicians
AND
lobbyist, Jeff Harrison, was counsel to the House Committee on Agriculture.
Sugar lobby hates the plan – want restrictions on imports
Spencer 2012
[Jim, Star Tribune, “In Congress, no one beats the influential beet lobby”, http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/138264909.html]
The U.S. sugar program -- a combination of loan programs, tariffs
AND
"It's not realistic to pretend there is a free market out there."

C. Internal Link - Obama’s capital is critical to passing Trade promotion authority.
Politi, 5/20/13 (James. Financial Times [London (UK)] 20 May 2013 Financial Times US economics and trade correspondent “US business keen to promote 'fast track' trade deals: Political debate” Proquest)
A campaign has been launched to 'educate' legislators on the benefits involved, writes,
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though TPP is more contentious especially after the announcement that Japan would accede.


D. – Impact Passing TPA is critical to the future viability of the WTO – which will collapse now.
Jeffrey Schott 6/14/13 Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Payoff from the World Trade Agenda
Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC
June 14, 2013 http://www.piie.com/publications/papers/transcript-20130614.pdf

Now, what are the prospects for Bali? Well, they’re not so good
AND
bigger WTO package that would be pulled together and accelerated negotiations post Bali.

E. WTO credibility key to cooperation – fosters peace and solves conflict
Blanco 2013 (Herminio Blanco, AllAfrica Staff Writer, 4-29-13, “The relevance of the World Trade Organization for Africa”, http://www.tralac.org/2013/04/29/the-relevance-of-the-world-trade-organization-for-africa/)

There is an urgent need to preserve the credibility of the WTO as a forum
AND
but especially those of smaller size and the least developed countries of Africa.

1NC On case
Advantage 1 Monoculture

Their advantage has no internal link. The Specht 13 card only says corn ethanol hurts the great plain ecosystem, but nowhere in the Specht 13 card or in the Leahy 7 card does it say that specifically the Great Plains biodiversity and ecosystem will cause extinction. The Leahy card says massive ecosystem destruction throughout the world will cause the impact, but their aff only solves for the ecosystem in the Great Plains.

Even conservation biologists agree that species loss is slow and there's no impact
Julian Simon (world-renowned economist) 1998 The Ultimate Resource II, http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/TCHAR31.txt)
Starting in the early 1980s I published the above critical analysis of the standard extinction
AND
to see that the quotations fairly represent the gist of the authors' arguments.)

Species loss doesn’t snowball
Thomas Gale Moore 98 (Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford) 1998 Climate of Fear, 98-99
Nevertheless, the loss of a class of living beings does not typically threaten other
AND
As long as the host remains, so will parasites and symbiotic species.
Advantage 2 Climate Change

Their Postdam Institute 12 mass starving impact doesn’t have any extinction scenario at all to it so we outweigh. And nowhere in the card does it say the whole world will be affected by global warming or even if mass starving will happen.

And cross apply the no-impact biodiversity impact debate from this speech to answer their biodiversity impact.

And on global warming, their own Postdam Institute 12 card says that there is a 50% chance of warming exceeding 4 degrees Celsius by 2080 which means we win on probability because there is a hundred percent chance that our impact to our disad will happen if our internal link is sparked. Also, just the switch from corn ethanol to sugar will not even come close to solving the impact. There are so many other places around the world that emit emissions, so specifically American corn is not the issue.

Too late to stop warming
CLICK GREEN1-7-2011 (““Unstoppable effects” of climate change will last for 1,000 years,” http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/opinion/opinion/121749-%E2%80%9Cunstoppable-effects%E2%80%9D-of-climate-change-will-last-for-1,000-years.html)

New research indicates the impact of rising CO2 levels in the Earth's atmosphere will cause
AND
research team explored zero-emissions scenarios beginning in 2010 and in 2100.

CO2 isn’t key—paleoclimatic data
NIPCC 2009 (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change Reconsidered,” June, http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/2009/pdf/CCR2009FullReport.pdf)
Rothman (2002) derived a 500-million-year history of the air’s
AND
totally or partially within periods of time when earth’s climate was relatively cool.

No extinction – empirics prove
NIPCC 11. Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change. Surviving the unprecedented climate change of the IPCC. 8 March 2011. http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/mar/8mar2011a5.html

In a paper published in Systematics and Biodiversity, Willis et al. (2010
AND
the fossil record indicates remarkable biotic resilience to wide amplitude fluctuations in climate."

Sugarcane ethanol generates more pollution
Campbell, Spak, and Carmichael 11 (J. E. Campbell, S.N. Spak, G. R. Carmichael, UI College of Engineering alumni, an assistant professor with joint appointments in the UI Public Policy Center, School of Urban and Regional Planning, and the UI College of Engineering Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, “Sugarcane ethanol in Brazil a substantial pollution source”, Western Farm Press, an industry trade magazine that provides growers and agribusiness with in-depth coverage of the region's major crops plus the legislative, environmental and regulatory issues that affect their businesses, 12/29/11, http://westernfarmpress.com/government/sugarcane-ethanol-brazil-substantial-pollution-source//HZ)
University of Iowa researchers and their colleagues have shown that ethanol fuel producers in Brazil
AND
, and the UI College of Engineering Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Solvency
Sugar ethanol industry development is super slow---years before they have a chance to solve advantages
Specht 13
[Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf]

Like all new capitalist industries to emerge in the post-Castro era, whatever
AND
, which will slow the creation of a sugarcane-based ethanol industry.

Impact Framing

They say nuclear war is impossible, but
Great-power nuclear war’s possible
Wittner 11Lawrence Wittner is Professor of History emeritus at SUNY/Albany "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?" 11/30/2011 www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-wittner/nuclear-war-china_b_1116556.html
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
AND
—destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.

They say miscalc impossible and no escalation, but group those arguments and
Multiple factors ensure escalation
Cirincione, foreign services prof, 6 (Joseph, Prof of Foreign Service at Georgetown University Senior Associate and Director for Non-Proliferation, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Joseph, July, Nuclear Proliferation Status, http://units.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/2006/july/article4.cfm, AG)

Existing regional nuclear tensions already pose serious risks. The decades-long conflict between
AND
president could prematurely order a nuclear strike based on flawed intelligence.[3]

They say no extinction but ___
Nuclear war causes extinction
Starr 12 [Steven Starr - Director of the Clinical Laboratory Science Program at the University of Missouri-Columbia, Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, has been published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, his writings appear on the websites of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies, Scientists for Global Responsibility, and the International Network of Scientists Against Proliferation, “What is nuclear darkness?,” http://www.nucleardarkness.org/web/whatisnucleardarkness/]

In a nuclear war, burning cities would create millions of tons of thick,
AND
animals living at the top of the food chains - including human beings.