GMP+Helen+and+Tiffanie

=Aff= toc =1AC Round 4 & 5=

Plan Text

 * The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports.**

Contention 1: The Environment
Specht 13 [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [] ]
 * Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol market is superior to American corn-based ethanol. It will slow the rate of climate change, pesticide use, and dead zones.**

IV. Environmental Effects of Ethanol¶ ¶ Assuming that Cuba is able to meet AND to corn production and, thus, to the domestic ethanol industry. n68

Scenario 1: Water
Specht 13 [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [] ]
 * Continued increases in U.S. corn-ethanol production will drain the Ogallala Aquifer—causing massive water shortages**

Increased water consumption is another environmental consequence resulting from the expansion of corn production in AND and policy were changed to encourage the importation of sugarcane-based ethanol.

Jackson and Carpenter 1 [Robert- Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke, Stephen- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Clifford Dahm, Diane McKnight- University of New Mexico,, Robert Naiman- University of Colorado, Sandra Postel-University of Washington, Steven Running, “Water in a Changing World,” __ Issues in Ecology __, http://www.biology.duke.edu/jackson/issues9.pdf, Spring 2001]
 * Drinking water is key to life on earth**

Life on earth depends on the continuous flow of materials through the air, water AND particular basins and in individual watersheds is the key to sustainable water management.

Scenario 2: Climate Change
Muller 7-28- 20 12 [Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former MacArthur Foundation fellow, “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all]
 * Global Warming is happening – most recent and best evidence concludes that it is human induced**

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate AND (CO2), measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice.

Vertessy and Clark 3-13 **-** 2012 [Rob, Acting Director of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Megan, Chief Executive Officer at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, “State of the Climate 2012”, []]
 * CO2 is the primary driver of climate change – outweighs all alt causes**

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for about 60% of the effect from AND dominant cause of the observed CO2 increase is the combustion of fossil fuels.

Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided”, A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)
 * Global warming makes global agricultural production impossible – resulting in mass starvation**

The overall conclusions of IPCC AR4 concerning food production and agriculture included the following: AND differently and food security is further challenged by a multitude of nonclimatic factors.

Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided”, A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)
 * 4 degrees of warming make sustaining biodiversity impossible – the impact is extinction**

Ecosystems and their species provide a range of important goods and services for human society AND ecosystems into a state unknown in human experience (Barnosky et al., 2012 Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided”, A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)
 * 4 degree warming is inevitable with current carbon usage trends – deceasing carbon emissions solve**

The emission pledges made at the climate conventions in Copenhagen and Cancun, if fully AND to see a monthly summer temperature rise of more than 6°C.

Contention 2: Solvency
Specht 13 [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [] ]
 * Cuban sugar based ethanol is essential -- it’s the best solution for a transition away from oil-based fuel dependence—allowing access to the U.S. market is key**

"The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity AND, deserves much greater consideration and evaluation than it has thus far received.

Alonso-Pippo et al. 8 [Walfrido Alonso-Pippo- former Vice-President of the Solar Energy Department at the University of Havana and a former member of the Cuban National Renewable Energies Front, where he was a specialist in biomass energy use, Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pierto Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, “Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case,” __Energy Policy__, Vol. 36, Issue 6, June 2008, []]
 * And, joint ventures jumpstart the Cuban ethanol energy industry**

The rise of the price of oil above 80 USD/bbl. provides an AND movement toward the development of sugarcane as a viable alternative source of energy. Specht 13 [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” Environmental Law & Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, [] ]
 * Sugar ethanol importation from Cuba is superior to alternatives and solves impacts from domestic corn ethanol production—with no environmental damage**

B. Environmental Effects of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol¶ If future legislation does not AND to promote the importation of Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol should be encouraged.

Contention 3: Impact Framing
Robb 2012 [Doug, US Navy Lieutenant, “Now Hear This – Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over”, May, 5/2012 [Lieutenant, US Navy, “”, US Naval Institute, []] In addition to geopolitical and diplomacy issues, globalization continues to transform the world. AND a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable. Quinlan 2009 [Sir Michael, visiting professor at King's College London, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and former senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, “Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects,” Oxford University Press] One special form of miscalculation appeared sporadically in the speculations of academic commentators, though AND if necessary—that there was no misinterpretation of its conventionally armed launch. Trachtenberg 2000 (Prof of History, Pennsylvania (Marc, The "Accidental War" Question, http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/inadv(1).pdf) The second point has to do with how much risk there really is in situations AND the system to keep relatively minor provocations from leading directly to general war. Yehoshua(Ph.D.), an inter-disciplinary physicist, is an expert in electro-optics, high-energy physics and applications, and material science and Moshe Yanovskiy, Jan 2,“Nuclear Proliferation and Democracy”, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/nuclear_proliferation_and_demo.html, CMR Nuclear proliferation should no longer be treated as an unthinkable nightmare; it is likely AND reality will most probably contain fewer nuclear-possessing states than the former.
 * No great power war – interdependence, democracy, deterrence**
 * Miscalc is impossible**
 * Intervening actions check escalation **
 * Nuclear war doesn’t cause extinction**
 * Socol 2011**

=**1NC Round 6**=

Algae CP 1NC
Jason Pyle (Chief Executive Officer, Sapphire Energy) June 12 2008 “Renewable Fuels And Food Prices,” CQ Congressional Testimony First, let me thank the Committee for its leadership on alternative, renewable fuels AND crops, or other natural resources. Sapphire has turned sunlight into gasoline.
 * Text: The United States federal government should amend relevant definitions in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 to include algae-derived fuels eligible for all tax credits, subsidies, and price supports.**
 * Amending the RFS to include price supports for algae spurs green crude production. This provides clean renewable fuel – solves warming and breaks the food/fuel link**

**The counter plan solves the case and is bipartisan.** Energy Washington Week, ‘8 [“Senate Energy Committee Eyes RFS revision to ease rising food prices” June 18, 2008, l/n] Key members of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee are suggesting changes are needed AND on federal lands, and urban and commercial wood waste." -- Will Harrington

Casey 5/26 (Tina Casey is a writer for CleanTechnica the #1 most-visited clean energy or cleantech news site in the US the most indispensable site on the planet for cleantech news and commentary, 5-26-12, “Airlines, Farm Groups Petition Senate for Military Biofuels”, http://cleantechnica.com/2012/05/26/airlines-farm-groups-petition-senate-military-biofuels/) [|Airlines for America], the [|American Farm Bureau Federation] and other groups banded together last AND transition to alternative fuels, rather than a responsible exercise of legislative authority.
 * Airline, Farm, and biotech lobbies support the CP **

Cuba Conditions CP 1NC
Perez 2010 [David A. Perez, Yale Law School, JD, 2010, Harvard Latino Law Review, Spring, 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, America’s Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department, p. 206-10] The United States should recognize that economic change is a precursor to political change. AND , may also prevent a costly civil war during the inevitably painful transition.
 * Text: The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports if and only if the Cuban government implements economic liberalization reforms, including engaging international financial institutions and reducing restrictions on foreign direct investment.**
 * Only the counterplan solves Cuban growth and democracy – US engagement in economic liberalization ensures stable transition post-Castro. And they’d say yes.**

Gorrell 2005 [Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074] Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s AND in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
 * Unstable transition causes Caribbean terrorism, regional instability, and turns the case**

Manwaring 2005 [Max, ,Professor of Military Strategy @ U.S. Army War College, Retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, VENEZUELA’S HUGO CHÁVEZ, BOLIVARIAN SOCIALISM, AND ASYMMETRIC WARFARE, October 2005, []] The Issue of State Failure. - President Chávez also understands that the process leading AND and their associated problems endanger global security, peace, and prosperity.65
 * Latin American instability sparks global WMD conflict, terrorism, starvation, and human rights violations**

CIR 1NC
Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16 “Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration”, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931&CategoryId=12395 WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest AND ,” taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups. William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf
 * Immigration reform will pass and political capital is key**
 * Drains capital – Backlash and hostage taking on unrelated priority legislation is empirically proven, likely in future and specifically true for Rubio – Cuba policy is totally unique **
 * LeoGrande, 12 **

The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie AND rarely happen unless the urgency of the problem forces policymakers to take action.


 * Expanding high skilled immigration key to stop bioterror attack **
 * Goldberg et al 2004** (Joseph E., Dorsey, Harry, Bartone, Paul, Ortman, Bill, Ashcraft, Paul, Burlingame, Stan, Carter, Anna L., Cofer, Robin D., Elwood, John, Guerts, Jim, Industry Studies 2004: Biotechnology, The Industrial College of the Armed Forces National Defense University)

Biotechnology has the potential to revolutionize all aspects of our daily of life over the AND use does not outweigh its ability to address the world’s most pressing needs.
 * A bioweapons attack threatens human survival **
 * Carpenter and Bishop 2009** (P. A., P. C., July 10, Graduate Program in Studies of the Future, School of Human Sciences and Humanities, University of Houston-Clear Lake, Houston, TX, USA, Graduate Program in Futures Studies, College of Technology, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA. A review of previous mass extinctions and historic catastrophic events, ScienceDirect)

The flu of 1890, 1918–1919 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu, AND to have developed an antibiotic-resistant strain of the plague [26].
 * Extinction **
 * Trewavas 00 ** [Anthony, Institute of Cell and Molecular Biology – University of Edinburgh, “GM Is the Best Option We Have”, AgBioWorld, 6-5, [] ]

But these are foreign examples; global warming is the problem that requires the UK AND accepting that technological advance may be the only buffer between us and annihilation.

Monoculture 1NC
Julian Simon (world-renowned economist) 1998 The Ultimate Resource II, []) Starting in the early 1980s I published the above critical analysis of the standard extinction AND to see that the quotations fairly represent the gist of the authors' arguments.)
 * Even conservation biologists agree that species loss is slow and there's no impact**

Thomas Gale Moore 98 (Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford) 1998 Climate of Fear, 98-99 Nevertheless, the loss of a class of living beings does not typically threaten other AND As long as the host remains, so will parasites and symbiotic species.
 * Species loss doesn’t snowball**

Climate Change 1NC
Yes, there is no doubt about it. The planet is experiencing a siege AND (1777), and Napoleon's, a frigid retreat from Russia (1812).
 * Warming is natural**
 * BELL 11-3-2010** (Larry, Prof at U Houston, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/02/global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-opinions-columnists-larry-bell.html)

__Short- and long-term solar fluctuations have important influences__ too. Decadal and longer __changes in sunspot activity impacting warming and cooling cloud cover patterns are now being recognized as an important factor. Other solar changes occurring at approximate 1,500 year intervals also influence climate. Greenland, for example, has experienced an estimated 600 of these cycles over the past million years__.
 * Not anthropogenic—solar variance**
 * BELL 11-3-2010** (Larry, Prof at U Houston, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/02/global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-opinions-columnists-larry-bell.html)


 * Warming inevitable—even at lesser population growth rates, we’re still producing too much carbon dioxide to overcome**
 * Husler and Sornette ’11** (A.D., and D. Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, “Evidence for super-exponentially accelerating atmospheric carbon dioxide growth,” 3/17/11, AM)

We have analyzed the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide and of what constitutes arguably its AND expected to lead to severe strains on a significant fraction of the population. More recent temperature variations have been relatively much more stable and moderate. The past AND . In the Arctic these oscillations occur about every 60 to 70 years.
 * CO2 isn’t key to warming**
 * BELL 11-3-2010** (Larry, Prof at U Houston, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/02/global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-opinions-columnists-larry-bell.html)

Impact Debate 1NC
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used. AND —destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.
 * Great-power nuclear war’s possible**
 * Wittner 11 **Lawrence Wittner is Professor of History emeritus at SUNY/Albany "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?" 11/30/2011 [|www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-wittner/nuclear-war-china_b_1116556.html]

James Wood Forsyth, Professor, National Security Studies and Thomas E. Griffith Jr., Dean of Faculty and Academic Programs, National War College, "Through the Glass Darkly: The Unlikely Demise of Great-Power War," STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, Fall 2007 , http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA509123 The United States cannot prepare to put down any and all potential rivals. The AND -power war has a bright future, however tragic that might seem.
 * Prefer specific scenarios - even if things make war more difficult it doesn’t make it unthinkable**


 * Multiple factors ensure escalation**
 * Cirincione, foreign services prof, 6** (Joseph, Prof of Foreign Service at Georgetown University Senior Associate and Director for Non-Proliferation, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Joseph, July, Nuclear Proliferation Status, http://units.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/2006/july/article4.cfm, AG)

Existing regional nuclear tensions already pose serious risks. The decades-long conflict between AND president could prematurely order a nuclear strike based on flawed intelligence.[3]

In the 1980s, discussion and debate about the possibility of a 'nuclear winter' helped AND more recently — for consideration of new scientific results in US nuclear policy.
 * Nuclear war causes extinction—most qualified evidence**
 * __Robock ’11__** (Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, “Nuclear winter is a real and present danger”, May 18, [], CMR)