GMP+Cortez+and+Zach

=1AC - Round 2=

toc

Plan Text

 * The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba~’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports.**

Contention 1: Sugar Ethanol Shift

 * Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol market is superior to American corn-based ethanol. It will slow the rate of climate change, pesticide use, and dead zones.**
 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, **http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**]**

IV. Environmental Effects of Ethanol¶¶Assuming that Cuba is able to meet all AND to corn production and, thus, to the domestic ethanol industry. n68

Scenario 1: Water

 * Continued increases in U.S. corn-ethanol production will drain the Ogallala Aquifer—causing massive water shortages**
 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, **http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**]**

Increased water consumption is another environmental consequence resulting fromthe expansion of corn production in Great AND and policy were changed to encourage the importation of sugarcane-based ethanol.


 * Drinking water is key to life on earth**
 * Jackson and Carpenter 1**
 * [Robert-Department of Biologyand Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke, Stephen-Center for Limnology, Universityof Wisconsin, Clifford Dahm, Diane McKnight-University ofNew Mexico,, Robert Naiman-University of Colorado, Sandra Postel-University of Washington, Steven Running, "Water in a Changing World,"Issues in Ecology, http://www.biology.duke.edu/jackson/issues9.pdf, Spring 2001]**

Life on earth depends on the continuous flow of materials through the air, water AND particular basins and in individual watersheds is the key to sustainable water management.

Scenario 2: Climate Change

 * Global Warming is happening – most recent and best evidence concludes that it is human induced**
 * Muller** 7-28- 20 12 [Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former MacArthur Foundation fellow, "The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic", http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all]

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate AND (CO2), measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice.


 * CO2 is the primary driver of climate change – outweighs all alt causes**
 * Vertessy and Clark** 3-13 -**2012** [Rob, Acting Director of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Megan, Chief Executive Officer at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, "State of the Climate 2012", []]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for about 60% of the effect from AND that the dominant cause of theobservedCO2 increase is the combustion of fossil fuels.


 * Global warming makes global agricultural production impossible – resulting in mass starvation**
 * Potsdam Institute, 2012** (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The overall conclusions of IPCC AR4 concerning food production and agriculture included the following: AND differently and food security is further challenged by a multitude of nonclimatic factors.


 * 4 degrees of warming make sustaining biodiversity impossible – the impact is extinction**
 * Potsdam Institute, 2012** (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

Ecosystems and their species provide a range of important goods and services for human society AND ecosystems into a state unknown in human experience (Barnosky et al., 2012


 * 4 degree warming is inevitable with current carbon usage trends – deceasing carbon emissions solve**
 * Potsdam Institute, 2012** (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The emission pledges made at the climate conventions in Copenhagen and Cancun, if fully AND to see a monthly summer temperature rise of more than 6°C.

Contention 2: Solvency

 * Cuban sugar based ethanol is essential to replace oil based fuel—it~’s the best solution for a transition away from oil-based fuel dependence—allowing access to the U.S. market is key**
 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, []]**

"The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity AND, deserves much greater consideration and evaluation than it has thus far received.

[Walfrido Alonso-Pippo-  former Vice-President of the Solar Energy Department at the University of Havanaand a former member of the Cuban National Renewable Energies Front, where he was a specialist in biomass energy use, Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pierto Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, "Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case," Energy Policy , Vol. 36, Issue 6, June 2008, []]
 * And, joint ventures jumpstart the Cuban ethanol energy industry**
 * Alonso-Pippo et al. 8**

The rise of the price of oilabove 80USD/bbl. provides an incentive for AND movement toward the development of sugarcane as a viable alternative source of energy.


 * Sugar ethanol importation from Cuba is superior to alternatives and solves impacts from domestic corn ethanol production—no environmental damage**
 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, **http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**]**

B. Environmental Effects of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol¶If future legislation does not AND to promote the importation of Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol should be encouraged.

Contention 3: Impact Debate
[Doug, US Navy Lieutenant, "Now Hear This – Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over", May, 5/2012 [Lieutenant, US Navy, "", US Naval Institute, []] In addition to geopolitical and diplomacy issues, globalization continues to transform the world. AND a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable.
 * No great power war – interdependence, democracy, deterrence**
 * Robb 2012**

[Sir Michael, visiting professor at King~’s College London, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and former senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, "Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects," Oxford University Press] One special form of miscalculationappeared sporadically in the speculations of academic commentators, though it AND if necessary—that there was no misinterpretation of its conventionally armed launch. (Prof of History, Pennsylvania (Marc, The "Accidental War" Question, http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/inadv(1).pdf) The second point has to do with how much risk there really is in situations AND the system to keep relatively minor provocations from leading directly to general war.
 * Miscalc is impossible**
 * Quinlan 2009**
 * Intervening actions check escalation**
 * Trachtenberg 2000**

Socol 2011 Yehoshua(Ph.D.), an inter-disciplinary physicist, is an expert in electro-optics, high-energy physics and applications, and material science and Moshe Yanovskiy, Jan 2,"Nuclear Proliferation and Democracy", http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/nuclear_proliferation_and_demo.html, CMR Nuclear proliferation should no longer be treated as an unthinkable nightmare; it is likely AND reality will most probably contain fewer nuclear-possessing states than the former.
 * Nuclear war doesn~’t cause extinction**

=1AC - Round 4&5=

Plan Text
The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba~’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports.

Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol market is superior to American corn-based ethanol. It will slow the rate of climate change, pesticide use, and dead zones.

 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, **http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**]**

IV. Environmental Effects of Ethanol¶¶Assuming that Cuba is able to meet all AND to corn production and, thus, to the domestic ethanol industry. n68

Domestic corn-ethanol production is the root of massive species loss and ecosystem destruction in the Great Plains

 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, **http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**]**

Incentivizing farmers to grow consecutive corn crops instead of alternating with soybean crops is only AND to clean as the grasslands and wetlands that once filtered contaminants disappear. n100

Monoculture model independently causes extinction

 * Leahy 7**
 * [Stephen- international environmental journalist, "Biodiversity: Farming Will Make or Break the Food Chain", Inter Press Service, 5-3-07,http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/05/03/945/]**

"If all agricultural lands adopt the industrial, monocultural model, there will be AND what the key cards are or how many lost species is too many.

Global Warming is happening – most recent and best evidence concludes that it is human induced

 * Muller** 7-28- 20 12 [Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former MacArthur Foundation fellow, "The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic", http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all]

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate AND (CO2), measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice.

CO2 is the primary driver of climate change – outweighs all alt causes

 * Vertessy and Clark** 3-13 -**2012** [Rob, Acting Director of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Megan, Chief Executive Officer at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, "State of the Climate 2012", []]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for about 60% of the effect from AND that the dominant cause of theobservedCO2 increase is the combustion of fossil fuels.

Global warming makes global agricultural production impossible – resulting in mass starvation

 * Potsdam Institute, 2012** (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The overall conclusions of IPCC AR4 concerning food production and agriculture included the following: AND differently and food security is further challenged by a multitude of nonclimatic factors.

4 degrees of warming make sustaining biodiversity impossible – the impact is extinction

 * Potsdam Institute, 2012** (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

Ecosystems and their species provide a range of important goods and services for human society AND ecosystems into a state unknown in human experience (Barnosky et al., 2012

4 degree warming is inevitable with current carbon usage trends – deceasing carbon emissions solve

 * Potsdam Institute, 2012** (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The emission pledges made at the climate conventions in Copenhagen and Cancun, if fully AND to see a monthly summer temperature rise of more than 6°C.

Cuban sugar based ethanol is essential to replace oil based fuel—it~’s the best solution for a transition away from oil-based fuel dependence—allowing access to the U.S. market is key

 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, []]**

"The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity AND, deserves much greater consideration and evaluation than it has thus far received.

And, joint ventures jumpstart the Cuban ethanol energy industry
[Walfrido Alonso-Pippo-  former Vice-President of the Solar Energy Department at the University of Havanaand a former member of the Cuban National Renewable Energies Front, where he was a specialist in biomass energy use, Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pierto Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, "Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case," Energy Policy , Vol. 36, Issue 6, June 2008, []]
 * Alonso-Pippo et al. 8**

The rise of the price of oilabove 80USD/bbl. provides an incentive for AND movement toward the development of sugarcane as a viable alternative source of energy.

Sugar ethanol importation from Cuba is superior to alternatives and solves impacts from domestic corn ethanol production—no environmental damage

 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, **http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**]**

B. Environmental Effects of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol¶If future legislation does not AND to promote the importation of Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol should be encouraged.

No great power war – interdependence, democracy, deterrence
[Doug, US Navy Lieutenant, "Now Hear This – Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over", May, 5/2012 [Lieutenant, US Navy, "", US Naval Institute, []] In addition to geopolitical and diplomacy issues, globalization continues to transform the world. AND a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable.
 * Robb 2012**

Miscalc is impossible
[Sir Michael, visiting professor at King~’s College London, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and former senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, "Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects," Oxford University Press] One special form of miscalculationappeared sporadically in the speculations of academic commentators, though it AND if necessary—that there was no misinterpretation of its conventionally armed launch. Intervening actions check escalation (Prof of History, Pennsylvania (Marc, The "Accidental War" Question, http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/inadv(1).pdf) The second point has to do with how much risk there really is in situations AND the system to keep relatively minor provocations from leading directly to general war.
 * Quinlan 2009**
 * Trachtenberg 2000**

Nuclear war doesn~’t cause extinction
Socol 2011 Yehoshua(Ph.D.), an inter-disciplinary physicist, is an expert in electro-optics, high-energy physics and applications, and material science and Moshe Yanovskiy, Jan 2,"Nuclear Proliferation and Democracy", http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/nuclear_proliferation_and_demo.html, CMR Nuclear proliferation should no longer be treated as an unthinkable nightmare; it is likely AND reality will most probably contain fewer nuclear-possessing states than the former. = = =1NC - Semis= = =

Algae
====Text: The United States federal government should amend relevant definitions in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 to include algae-derived fuels eligible for all tax credits, subsidies, and price supports.====

Amending the RFS to include price supports for algae spurs green crude production. This provides clean renewable fuel – solves warming and crop shift
Jason **Pyle** (Chief Executive Officer, Sapphire Energy) June 12 **2008** "Renewable Fuels And Food Prices," CQ Congressional Testimony First, let me thank the Committee for its leadership on alternative, renewable fuels AND crops, or other natural resources. Sapphire has turned sunlight into gasoline.

Obama political capital is key to compromises that allow passage – will bust out the hammer
Justin **Sink 7/15** "Obama takes push for immigration reform to Spanish-language TV", http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/311065-obama-takes-push-for-immigration-reform-to-spanish-language-media President Obama will look to intensify pressure on House Republicans to act on immigration reform AND that he shouldn~’t be involved in that discussion is foolish," McCain added. Plan drains capital LeoGrande, 12 William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf

The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie AND rarely happen unless the urgency of the problem forces policymakers to take action. PC is key and finite Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, [], CMR) President Obama said Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term AND issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigration reform and gun control.

Impact – Immigration reform decreases terror risk—multiple mechanisms
MR. DANIEL GRISWOLD: Thank you, Chairman Chambliss, and members of the AND and it would enhance the federal government~’s ability to wage war on terrorism.
 * Griswold 04** (Daniel, Senior Fellow @ CATO, Federal News Service, 4/1, lexis)

Nuclear war—retaliation
Patrick F. **Speice**, "Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating the Current Liability Barrier to Bilateral U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Assistance Programs," WILLIAM %26 MARY LAW REVIEW v. 47, 2—**06**, p. 1437-1438. Accordingly, there is a significant and ever-present risk that terrorists could acquire AND increasing the number of casualties and potentially triggering a full-scale nuclear conflict

China~’s current economic strategy is allowing them to outpace US influence in Latin America – plan reverses that by offering a "NO STRINGS ATTACHED" economic policy
Increasingly, Latin American countries see China not as a rival but as a valuable AND . control, China offers up its loans come with few strings attached.
 * Gallagher 6/18**/13 – associate professor of international relations at Boston University (Kevin P, "Time for a U.S. Pivot to Latin America", [], CMR)

US-Sino competition risks open conflict
The challenge to Washington from China~’s presence in the region also extends beyond economics and AND represent potential assets in a global asymmetric warfare campaign against the United States.
 * Ellis 6/6**/13 – associate professor with the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies (R Evan, "China~’s New Backyard", [], CMR)

Global nuclear war
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate AND outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.
 * Hunkovic 9** (Lee J, American Military University, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", [Hunkovic.pdf-http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf])

Cuban sugar ethanol will not hurt the U.S. corn industry
(Jonathan **Specht**- Washington University in St Louis, **2012**, "Raising Cane: Sugar Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States", http://works.bepress.com/jonathan_specht/1) Whether or not policy and law changes successfully encouraging the growth of a Cuban sugarcane AND Standard will provide a source of U.S. demand for ethanol. Additionally, while exposing the domestic ethanol industry to competition from imported ethanol might AND fructose corn syrup), corn oil, corn starch, and biodegradable plastics.

Corn growth inevitable – india/china demand
(Jonathan **Specht**- Washington University in St Louis, **2012**, "Raising Cane: Sugar Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States", http://works.bepress.com/jonathan_specht/1) Even if corn-based ethanol production were to decline, U.S. AND demand for corn-based ethanol would not necessarily lead to low corn prices

US farmers will not shift to sugar – cannot grow it and subsidies
(Erin Voegele, February 04, 2009, "Sugarcane Economics", http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/5345/sugarcane-economics) Sugarcane has been grown in the U.S. for centuries even though land AND , ethanol producers in most areas simply wouldn~’t be able to afford it.
 * Voegele ~’09**

Warming is natural
BELL 11-3-2010 (Larry, Prof at U Houston, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/02/global-warming-climate-change-al-gore-opinions-columnists-larry-bell.html) Yes, there is no doubt about it. The planet is experiencing a siege AND (1777), and Napoleon~’s, a frigid retreat from Russia (1812).

Negative feedbacks check the impact
DE FREITAS 1-5-2011 (Chris de Freitas is an associate professor in the school of environment at the University of Auckland, NZ Herald, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1%26objectid=10697845) The degree of warming directly caused by the extra carbon dioxide is, by itself AND that support a theory or hypothesis. They are not resolved by ballot.

Sugarcane mills lead to high levels of air pollution
Eudel Eduardo Cepero ~’04 ("ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS FOR A CUBA IN TRANSITION" CTP, Cuba Transition Project, published 2004, [])

Air. Cuba~’s precarious air quality is nothing new. Available statistics¶ report a AND enforcing the rules and¶ in handling the claims to eliminate the problem.

SO2 causes warming- multiple feedback loops- all other studies fail because they don~’t assume other particles
Science Daily, 10 (Best Hope for Saving Arctic Sea Ice Is Cutting Soot Emissions, Say Researchers, J uly 30, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100728092617.htm-http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100728092617.htm) The quickest, best way to slow the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice is AND , the NASA high-end computing program and the National Science Foundation.

SO2 causes acid rain
China Daily January 12, 2011 A hard rain is falling as acid erodes beauty http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/2011-01/12/content_11833224.htm Official statistics show every drop of rain in Xiamen in the first half of 2010 AND , said Wei Fusheng, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

Turns biodiversity
Daily Trust March 31, 2010 Mustapha Suleiman Staff writer http://allafrica.com/stories/201004020440.html Effects of acid rain on aquatic life: Apart from plants, acid rain also AND or brittle. Lack of calcium also causes deformed bones and weakened spines.

Prefer specific scenarios - even if things make war more difficult it doesn~’t make it unthinkable
James Wood **Forsyth**, Professor, National Security Studies and Thomas E. Griffith Jr., Dean of Faculty and Academic Programs, National War College, "Through the Glass Darkly: The Unlikely Demise of Great-Power War," STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, Fall **2007**, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA509123 The United States cannot prepare to put down any and all potential rivals. The AND -power war has a bright future, however tragic that might seem.

No impact—mass extinctions will be followed by recovery, not collapse
Michael Ruse (Philosopher and Author) August 24 2002 The Globe and Mail Let me say straight out that this is the most egregiously mislabelled book I have AND a tempo of its own, apparently, and can continue despite disruptions..

=1NC - Quarters=

Russia pursuing agreement to drill the shelf – key to Russian oil growth—plan crowds Russia out
[Maria Snytkova 3/1/2013 "Russia to supply Cuban oil to USA?", http://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/01-03-2013/123941-russia_cuba_oil-0] Many became highly concerned last week, when it was said that Russia was forgiving AND was not a single representative of the oil sector among the Russian delegation.
 * Snytkova 2013**

Russian access to Gulf oil key to their economy and broader influence
[Jane Van - former senior communications manager and new media advisor at the American Petroleum Institute (API), Mar 19, 2010, "Russia/Cuba Seeking Oil in the Gulf of Mexico", [], TB] America~’s "stuck in neutral" energy policy has just received another shot over the AND Missile Crisis, but it could signal a shift in America~’s stature abroad.
 * Ryan 2010**

Russian economic deterioration leads terrorism and nuclear conflict resulting in extinction.
Sheldon **Filger 2009** "Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction" May 10, 2009, []] In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree AND the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.

License US oil companies for spill related coordination and clean-up – CP solves the impact to any oil spill and does not loosen the embargo – that prevents a political backlash
Melissa **Bert** (a military fellow (U.S. Coast Guard) at the Council on Foreign Relations) **and** Blake **Clayton** (fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations) **2012** "Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill", http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515 The imminent drilling of Cuba~’s first offshore oil well raises the prospect of a large AND the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba.

A. Uniqueness – Multiple issues with offshore drilling rigs of Cuba make it very likely that oil companies will not keep drilling there
Jeff **Frank 05/29/13** Jeff Franks is the Reuters Chief Correspondent for Texas, based in Houston and Reporter. "Cuban oil hopes sputter as Russians give up for now on well" http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/cuba-oil-idUSL2N0EA00W20130529

There is also Cuba~’s history of failed wells, which makes it hard to compete AND It is going to be extremely challenging (for Cuba)," he said.

B. Link - The plan allows for US-Cuban oil cooperation
Conclusion and Recommendations Undoubtedly, after fifty years of enmity, there is a significant AND important to those crafting future policy and making changes in the policymaking milieu.
 * Benjamin 10** – Jonathan Benjamin-Alvadaro, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, 2010, Brookings Institution book, "Cuba~’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation"

C. Internal Link – Renewables are critical to transition away from fossil fuels – only way to solve climate change
Elaine K. **Hart**, Student Member IEEE, Eric D. **Stoutenburg**, Student Member IEEE, **and** Mark Z. **Jacobson** February **2012** http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=%26arnumber=5876295%26tag=1

The potential of renewable energy sources to supply a large fraction of electric power demand AND contribute to supplying a fluctuating electricity demand remains an open area of research.

Warming causes disease spread

 * Adair** 4-11- **2012** (KIRSTEN ADAIR, CONTRIBUTING REPORTER for Daily Yale News, Wednesday, April 11, 2012, http://www.yaledailynews.com/news/2012/apr/11/global-warming-may-intensify-disease/)

There may be more to fear from global warming than environmental changes. According to AND the direct and indirect effects of climate change on dengue transmission in Colombia.

Emerging diseases cause extinction

 * Zimmerman and Zimmerman 1996** (Barry and David, both have M.S. degrees from Long Island University, Killer Germs, p 132) EDITED FOR GENDERED LANGUAGE

Then came AIDS…and Ebola and Lassa fever and Marburg and dengue fever. AND is the virus" (A Dancing Matrix, by Robin Marantz Hening.

Immigration reform will pass and it political capital is key
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931%26CategoryId=12395 WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest AND ," taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups.
 * Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16** "Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration",

Drains capital – Backlash and hostage taking on unrelated priority legislation is empirically proven, likely in future and specifically true for Rubio – Cuba policy is totally unique – this is the best link card you will ever read LeoGrande, 12 William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf

The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie AND rarely happen unless the urgency of the problem forces policymakers to take action.

PC is key and finite Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, [], CMR) President Obama said Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term AND issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigration reform and gun control.

CIR is key to the economy and competitiveness

 * Green 7/2** - founder and president of FWD.us, an advocacy group created by technology leaders that promotes policies to keep the United States and its citizens competitive in a global economy (Joe, "House, knowledge economy needs immigrants", [], CMR)

Our country has changed a lot during those 27 years, but not — so AND reform to unlock those contributions and by doing so change millions of lives.

d.) Collapse of the US economic power causes nuclear war

 * Khalilzad 11** Zalmay was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, " The Economy and National Security", 2-8-11, [], CMR

Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to AND , hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.

Status quo solves – US inspections of rigs
On Christmas Eve, a massive, Chinese-made maritime oil rig, the AND , says the Cubans "seem very motivated to do the right thing."
 * Padgett 12** (Tim, "The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms Length Over Spill Prevention", 1/27, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)

A) Political views
What is the main obstacle in U.S.-Cuban relations? A fundamental AND Morales, who have challenged U.S. policy in the region.
 * Hanson and Lee 13** (Stephanie and Brianna – Council on Foreign Relations, "U.S.-Cuba Relations", 1/31, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113)

B) Human Rights, Guantanamo, and Cuban exiles
What are the issues preventing normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations? Experts AND alienating a strong voting bloc in an important swing state in presidential elections.
 * Hanson and Lee 13** (Stephanie and Brianna – Council on Foreign Relations, "U.S.-Cuba Relations", 1/31, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113)

C) The rest of the Embargo – the plan is only a fraction
While the embargo has been through several legal iterations in the intervening years, the AND in Cuba through economic sanctions, travel restrictions, and international legal penalties.
 * Hanson 13** (Daniel – economics researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, "It~’s Time For The U.S. To End Its Senseless Embargo Of Cuba", 1/16, http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/01/16/its-time-for-the-u-s-to-end-its-senseless-embargo-of-cuba/)

Taiwan-China relations are high
By a number of yardsticks, relations in the Taiwan Strait today are the best AND coast guards are now held every other year since 2010, mostly for the
 * Cole 12** — Taipei-based journalist who focuses on military issues in Northeast Asia and in the Taiwan Strait (J. Michael, 9/3, "Taiwan Hedges its Bets on China," http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/09/03/taiwan-hedges-its-bets-against-china/)

Data disproves hegemony impacts
It is perhaps worth noting that there is no evidence to support a direct relationship AND global policeman. Those who think otherwise base their view on faith alone.
 * Fettweis, 11** Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political Science, Tulane University, 9/26/11, Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO

Threat exaggerated—empirical record proves
Gregory D. **Koblentz**, Assistant Professor, Department of Public and International Affairs and Deputy Director, Biodefense Program, George Mason University, "Biosecurity Reconsidered," INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, Spring **2010**, p. 96+, ASP. The threat of bioterrorism, may not be as severe as some have portrayed it AND based on aerosol dissemination technology that are capable of causing mass casualties. 88

here~’s more ev – the Bioterror risk exaggerated – it~’s just a conspiracy
Despite the concern of many scientists, some bioweapons experts say the fears are overblown AND and abandoned, efforts to make germ weapons because the task was too difficult
 * Birch ~’06** (Douglas — Sun foreign correspondent— Baltimore Sun – June 18th – lexis)

a. Decline spurs it, more stable than dominance
Leon T. **Hadar**, Cato Institute, "Welcome to the Post-Unipolar World: Great for the U.S. and for the Rest," HUFFINGTON POST, 7—8—**10**, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11967-http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11967 Moreover, in the context of the evolving international system under which America is gradually AND the world, America could help itself and the rest of the world.

b. Solves terror, war, climate change
Krishnan **Srinivasan**, "International Conflict and Cooperation in the 21st Century," THE ROUND TABLE v. 98 n. 400, 2—**09**, pp. 37-47. The new world order of the ﬁrst half of the present century will be one AND ascendancy ﬁrst regionally, then continentally and ﬁnally globally over all the others.

c. warming causes Extinction
Ronnie **Cummins** and Will Allen, Organic Consumers Association, "Climate Catastrophe: Surviving the 21st Century," 2—14—**10,** http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/02/14-6 The hour is late. Leading climate scientists such as James Hansen are literally shouting AND die of thirst, cold, heat, disease, war, and starvation

A. Vital to stability
Christopher **Layne**, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, "The Global Power Shift from West to East," THE NATIONAL INTERST, May/June 20**12**, p. 31. During the next two decades, the United States will face some difficult choices between AND such fervor that they can~’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes.

B. Key to multipolarity
Christopher **Layne**, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FROM 1940 TO PRESENT, 20**06**, p. 158. At the same time, it doubtless is true that it will take some time AND The United States can do this by adopting an offshore balancing grand strategy.

C. Prevents extended deterrence breakdowns and nuclear war
Christopher **Layne**, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FROM 1940 TO PRESENT, 20**06**, p. 169. Proponents of U.S. hegemony like to say that America~’s military commitments in AND from the danger of being entrapped in Eurasian conflicts by its alliance commitments.

Taiwan-China relations are high
By a number of yardsticks, relations in the Taiwan Strait today are the best AND sea-rescue operations in the waters off Taiwan~’s Kinmen and China~’s Xiamen.
 * Cole 12** — Taipei-based journalist who focuses on military issues in Northeast Asia and in the Taiwan Strait (J. Michael, 9/3, "Taiwan Hedges its Bets on China," http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/09/03/taiwan-hedges-its-bets-against-china/)

No US-China war – economics
While the United States no longer dominates the global economy as it did during the AND of the U.S. governing elite~’s ideological commitment to national security.
 * Shor 12** (Francis, Professor of History – Wayne State, "Declining US Hegemony and Rising Chinese Power: A Formula for Conflict?", Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, 11(1), pp. 157-167)

No China conflict – no military use
As China has become a leading export market for its neighbours, it expects them AND sparks military conflict over the Senkakus, which would serve no one~’s interests.
 * Aliison %26 Blackwill 13** — *director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Douglas Dillon Professor at Harvard~’s John F. Kennedy School of Government AND **Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (Graham and Robert, 1/28/2013, "Beijing Still Prefers Diplomacy Over Force," http://www.cfr.org/china/beijing-still-prefers-diplomacy-over-force/p29892)

Chinese leadership will pull back
The strategic costs to China of a war with the United States are only part AND the survival of the party depends on preventing a Sino-American war.
 * Ross 1** (Robert S., Professor of Political Science – Boston College, The National Interest, Fall, Lexis

History proves no risk of China war – their cards are all hype
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2005/03/12/china-unlikely-engage-military-confrontation.html) Given America~’s monopoly or huge technological lead in key areas like stealth bombers, aircraft AND build-up and no plausible threat of impending war in East Asia.
 * Dyer 9** (Gwynne, Ph.D. in War Studies – University of London and Board of Governors – Canada~’s Royal Military College, "China Unlikely to Engage in Military Confrontation", Jakarta Post, 4-29,

Environment resilient and improving – their authors lie
That the human race faces environmental problems is unquestionable. That environmental experts have regularly AND typographical errors had been absorbed unchallenged into the folklore of environmental disaster scenarios.
 * Dutton 1** (Dr. Dennis, Professor of Philosophy – University of Canterbury (New Zealand), "Greener Than You Think", The Washington Post, 10-21, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article%26node=%26 contentId=A12789-2001Oct18)

Cuban drilling is safe – access to technology and safety standards prove
Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the AND from being uti - lized, foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives. 66
 * Sadowksi 12** (Richard – Managing Editor of Production of the Journal of International Business and Law Vol. X, J.D Candidate at Hofstra University, "Cuban Offshore Drilling: Preparation and Prevention within the Framework of the United States~’ Embargo", 2012, http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1497%26context=sdlp)

Environment is resilient
In the aftermath of events such as Love Canal or the Exxon Valdez oil spill AND are pinpricks compared to forces of the magnitude nature is accustomed to resisting.
 * Easterbrook 95** (Gregg, Distinguished Fellow – Fullbright Foundation, A Moment on Earth, p. 25)

No extinction
If we~’re talking about doomsday - the end of human civilization - many scenarios simply AND as he was, wrote Remembrance of Things Past while lying in bed.
 * Easterbrook 3** (Gregg, Distinguished Fellow – Fullbright Foundation, "We~’re All Gonna Die%21", Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1%26topic=%26topic_set=)

= = =1NC - round 6=

a.) Immigration reform will pass and it political capital is key
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931%26CategoryId=12395 WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest AND ," taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups.
 * Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16** "Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration",

b.) Link – Engaging Mexico drains PC

 * Farnsworth 12** – VP of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society (Eric, "The United States and Mexico: The Path Forward", Nov 30, [], CMR)

The election of Enrique Peña Nieto and the re-election of President Obama mean that the U.S.-Mexican relationship has a unique opportunity to grow closer and bring numerous benefits to both sides of the border. To fully appreciate this unique opportunity, both sides must invest political capitaland be prepared to engage domestic public opinion when it comes to explaining why our countries are united by much more than a fence. PC is key and finite Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, [], CMR) President Obama said Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term AND issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigration reform and gun control.

c.) Impact – Immigration reform decreases terror risk—multiple mechanisms
MR. DANIEL GRISWOLD: Thank you, Chairman Chambliss, and members of the AND and it would enhance the federal government~’s ability to wage war on terrorism.
 * Griswold 04** (Daniel, Senior Fellow @ CATO, Federal News Service, 4/1, lexis)

Nuclear war—retaliation
Patrick F. **Speice**, "Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating the Current Liability Barrier to Bilateral U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Assistance Programs," WILLIAM %26 MARY LAW REVIEW v. 47, 2—**06**, p. 1437-1438. Accordingly, there is a significant and ever-present risk that terrorists could acquire AND increasing the number of casualties and potentially triggering a full-scale nuclear conflict

States and localities could fund POE improvements – only minor changes at the federal level would be required

 * Wilson %26 Lee 2013**

Erik Lee, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University, Christopher E. Wilson, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars "THE STATE OF TRADE, COMPETITIVENESS AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING INTHE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER REGION" The State of The Border report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border Border Research Partnership May 2013 []

Given the fact that POE improvements offer significant and tangible monetary benefits to border communities AND legislative support and could open significant opportunities for investment despite tough budgetary times.

NAFTA not key to economies – economic disparities
Wilson 13 (Timothy, "Twenty Years Later: Accounting for NAFTA~’s Wins and Losses-http://www.nearshoreamericas.com/nafta-mexicos-tech-spending-spree/," Nearshore Americas, 3/25/2013, [], 7/10/2013, SLiu)

NAFTA Not a Magic Wand Despite the fact that there appear to have been significant AND "the effects on the Mexican economy tended to be modest at most."

Cross-border trade is bad for the Mexican economy because it destroys industrial diversification, keeps wages low and hollows out the middle class.

 * Diederich 2013**

Phillippe Diederich is a freelance writer, photographer %26 educator. His work has appeared in the NYT, Time magazine, US News, and he has won numerous awards for his photography %26 writing. Born in the Dominican Republic %26 raised in Mexico City and Miami. "Is Mexico~’s economic boom trickling down to all Mexicans?" 3/25/13 []

Mexico~’s economic boom not felt by all Recently, Thomas Friedman of the New York AND so all Mexicans can participate and enjoy the rewards of a strong economy.

China~’s current economic strategy is allowing them to outpace US influence in Latin America – plan reverses that

 * Gallagher 6/18**/13 – associate professor of international relations at Boston University (Kevin P, "Time for a U.S. Pivot to Latin America", [], CMR)

Increasingly, Latin American countries see China not as a rival but as a valuable AND . control, China offers up its loans come with few strings attached.

Plan fails and will be rejected – internal reform is a pre-requisite to investment
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since ~’92, was the Marcus Wallenberg Professor of Int~’l Finance Diplomacy @ Georgetown University, AND Jeffrey J, senior fellow, joined the Inst for Int~’l Economic in ~’83, visiting lecturer @ Princeton, "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges", page number below
 * Hufbauer %26 Scott ~’5**

To generate significant sums required for such investments, Mexico will need to attract both AND first willing to tap its own resources. [page 472-473]

No chance the plan solves – only trilateral cooperation with Canada can ensure successful integration
Robert A, Beyond the Continental Divide, July/August, [], CMR
 * Pastor 12 – prof and director of the Center for North American Studies @ American**

The problem is that our leaders do not think continentally. As long as they AND our three great countries, but only if we first see the possibility.

China won~’t go to war - no incentive.

 * Bremmer, 10** – president of Eurasia Group and author (Ian Bremmer, "China vs. America: Fight of the Century," Prospect, March 22, 2010, [])

China will not mount a military challenge to the US any time soon. Its AND largely co-opted already by offering Taiwan~’s business elite privileged investment opportunities.

China wouldn~’t fight a war in ANY dispute.

 * Fravel ~’8** (Taylor, poli sci prof and member of the Security Studies Program at MIT, "Power Shifts and Escalation," International Security, Winter, lexis)

The prospects for China~’s use of force in its six unresolved disputes are mixed. AND confident about the strength of its claim and the outcome of any negotiations.

No US-China war – economics
While the United States no longer dominates the global economy as it did during the AND of the U.S. governing elite~’s ideological commitment to national security.
 * Shor 12** (Francis, Professor of History – Wayne State, "Declining US Hegemony and Rising Chinese Power: A Formula for Conflict?", Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, 11(1), pp. 157-167)

====And their own evidence say China has refused to join the TPP that~’s their Kissinger 12 card. They force themselves into a double bind either the plan forces China to join which turns the aff or there is no impact====

Heg doesn~’t solve war – US lacks influence to deescalate conflicts
During the cold war the United States dictated the terms of adjustment. It derived AND way, but it can no longer count on getting its own way.
 * Mastanduno 2009** [Michael, Professor of Government at Dartmouth, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco]

hegemony is not sustainable
Christopher **Layne**, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, "This Time It~’s Real: The End of Unipolarity and Pax Americana," INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, 20**12**, Wiley, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00704.x/full, accessed 6-9-12. Before the Great Recession~’s foreshocks in fall 2007, most American security studies scholars believed AND following World War II even as the material foundations of American primacy erode.

Hegemony ensures U.S. involvement in overseas conflicts and nuclear war – withdrawal prevents automatic deployment to honor alliances.
Rather than being instruments of regional pacification, today America~’s alliances are transmission belts for AND from the danger of being entrapped in Eurasian conflicts by its alliance commitments.
 * Layne 2006** [Christopher, Associate Professor in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A%26M University, "The Peace of Illusions" p 169]

a. Decline spurs it, more stable than dominance
Leon T. **Hadar**, Cato Institute, "Welcome to the Post-Unipolar World: Great for the U.S. and for the Rest," HUFFINGTON POST, 7—8—**10**, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11967-http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11967 Moreover, in the context of the evolving international system under which America is gradually AND the world, America could help itself and the rest of the world.

b. Solves terror, war, climate change
Krishnan **Srinivasan**, "International Conflict and Cooperation in the 21st Century," THE ROUND TABLE v. 98 n. 400, 2—**09**, pp. 37-47. The new world order of the ﬁrst half of the present century will be one AND ascendancy ﬁrst regionally, then continentally and ﬁnally globally over all the others.

c. warming causes Extinction
Ronnie **Cummins** and Will Allen, Organic Consumers Association, "Climate Catastrophe: Surviving the 21st Century," 2—14—**10,** http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/02/14-6 The hour is late. Leading climate scientists such as James Hansen are literally shouting AND die of thirst, cold, heat, disease, war, and starvation

A. Vital to stability
Christopher **Layne**, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, "The Global Power Shift from West to East," THE NATIONAL INTERST, May/June 20**12**, p. 31. During the next two decades, the United States will face some difficult choices between AND such fervor that they can~’t discern the world transformation occurring before their eyes.

B. Key to multipolarity
Christopher **Layne**, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FROM 1940 TO PRESENT, 20**06**, p. 158. At the same time, it doubtless is true that it will take some time AND The United States can do this by adopting an offshore balancing grand strategy.

C. Prevents extended deterrence breakdowns and nuclear war
Christopher **Layne**, Professor, National Security, Texas A%26M University, THE PEACE OF ILLUSIONS: AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY FROM 1940 TO PRESENT, 20**06**, p. 169. Proponents of U.S. hegemony like to say that America~’s military commitments in AND from the danger of being entrapped in Eurasian conflicts by its alliance commitments.

Global supply chain efficiency won~’t work – a one-size fits all approach fails.

 * Ikenson 2008** Daniel Ikenson is associate director of Cato~’s Center for Trade Policy Studies and coauthor of Antidumping Exposed: The Devilish Details of Unfair Trade Law While Doha Sleeps Securing Economic Growth through Trade Facilitation June 17, 2008 No. 3 http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/tpa-037.pdf

A report based on a 2006 APEC survey of the literature assessing the costs and AND is a quid-pro-quo and therefore endangers prospects for reform.

Any single policy can~’t solve supply chain inefficiency.

 * Hoekman, 2013** Bernard Hoekman is a Professor at the European University Institute, Florence Italy, where he directs the Research Programme on International Economics in the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies~’ Global Governance Programme. "Global supply chains and trade agreements: beyond business as usual" June 11th, 2013 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/06/11/global-supply-chains-and-trade-agreements-beyond-business-as-usual/

The current approaches pursued by governments arguably are not optimal because they focus on specific AND policies, corruption and theft can all impact on supply-chain costs.

Plan causes oil development and dependence
To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was AND an embarrassing disaster for Pemex, the latest in a string of them.
 * Krauss and Malkin ~’10** ("Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach" New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all%26_r=0)

That kills renewable shift

 * CBO, 2012** (Congressional Budget Office, "Energy Security in the United States", May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S. AND the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38 Renewables solve warming Leahy, ~’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, "Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts", Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting AND future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.

Extinction

 * Speth 2008** [James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic AND and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.

= = =1NC - Round 3=

politics
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931%26CategoryId=12395 WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest AND ," taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups.
 * a.) Immigration reform will pass and it political capital is key**
 * Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16** "Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration",


 * b.) Link –Engaging Mexico drains PC**
 * Farnsworth 12** – VP of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society (Eric, "The United States and Mexico: The Path Forward", Nov 30, [], CMR)

The election of Enrique Peña Nieto and the re-election of President Obama mean that the U.S.-Mexican relationship has a unique opportunity to grow closer and bring numerous benefits to both sides of the border. To fully appreciate this unique opportunity, both sides must invest political capitaland be prepared to engage domestic public opinion when it comes to explaining why our countries are united by much more than a fence. Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, [], CMR) President Obamasaid Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term agenda AND Congresson issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigrationreform and gun control.
 * PC is key and finite**


 * c.) Impact – CIR is key to the economy and competitiveness**
 * Green 7/2** - founder and president of FWD.us, an advocacy group created by technology leaders that promotes policies to keep the United States and its citizens competitive in a global economy (Joe, "House, knowledge economy needs immigrants", [], CMR)

Our country has changed a lot during those 27 years, but not — so AND reform to unlock those contributions and by doing so change millions of lives.


 * d.) Collapse of the US economic power causes nuclear war**
 * Khalilzad11**Zalmay was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, " The Economy and National Security", 2-8-11, [], CMR

Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severelong-termthreat to the United AND , hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.

Colonialism K
The United States and Mexico have been central to the development of the neoliberal model AND , and the US and Mexico are at the center of the vortex.
 * Mexico-US economic engagement is the lynchpin and proving ground of neoliberalism – the affirmative aides the global success of neoliberal exploitation**
 * Mexico Solidarity Network 2012 [Mexico- A neoliberal Experiment, http://www.mexicosolidarity.org/programs/alternativeeconomy/neoliberalism]**


 * ====Colonialism~’s violence is not just physical violence, but a genocide of both the body and the mind through the erasure of non-European cultures.====**
 * Mignolo and Tlostanova 9 [Walter D., Doctor of semiotics and literary theory, prof of decoloniality at Duke University, Madina, Doctor of literature and postcolonial studies, professor at People~’s Friendship University of Russia, "Times for re-thinking, re-learning and networking, February, Interview, http://kristinabozic.wordpress.com/decolonization-interview/]**

What if any is the difference between colonization and genocide? Prof Mignolo: AND I think there is bigger common base of religion, roots, culture …

De-colonial thinking presupposes de-linking (epistemically and politically) from the AND wealth through the money invested by consumers who buy health-promoting technology.
 * The question of this debate is how best to challenge colonial institutions and foreground the lives of marginalized populations – this is an ethical imperative.**
 * Mignolo 2009**(Walter Mignolo, 2009, Epistemic Disobedience, Independent thought, and deconlonial freedom, [], Walter Mignolo is a semiotician and Professor at Duke Univeristy, who has published extensively on semiotics and literary theory, and worked on different aspect of the modern and colonial world, exploring concepts such as global coloniality, the geopolitics of knowledge, transmodernity, border thinking, and pluriversality)

ONCE UPON a time scholars assumed that the knowing subject in the disciplines is transparent AND who take ~’originality~’ as the ultimate criterion for the final judgment.1
 * Our alternative is to reject the affirmative – when confronted with colonial projects the only ethical response is radical negativity. We are compelled to be disobedient to modernity.**
 * Mignolo 09 [Walter D. Mignolo, Epistemic Disobedience, Independent Thought and Decolonial Freedom, Theory and Culture 2009, published 2009]**

Solvency
Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since ~’92, was the Marcus Wallenberg Professor of Int~’l Finance Diplomacy @ Georgetown University, AND Jeffrey J, senior fellow, joined the Inst for Int~’l Economic in ~’83, visiting lecturer @ Princeton, "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges", page number below
 * Plan fails and will be rejected – internal reform is a pre-requisite to investment**
 * Hufbauer%26 Scott ~’5**

To generate significant sums required for such investments, Mexico will need to attract both AND investment unless the Mexican government is first willing to tap its own resources.


 * Plan won~’t secure long-term investment – countries not convinced of benefits**
 * Pastor 13** – Professor and Director of the Center for North American Studies at American University (Robert A, "Speed Bumps, Potholes, and Roadblocks on the North American Superhighway", Winter, Lexis, CMR)

None of the manyproposals that have been advanced for the region can be achieved withoutsucha AND wider Community that could attract the support of the people and their legislatures.

Integration

 * The plan causes a huge protectionist backlash**
 * Field 12** (Alan M, "Will protectionist murmurs deter efforts to forge even closer economic integration", July 5, [], CMR)

Although current NAFTA provisions for labour are "archaic," said Ms. Greenwood, AND – and yet equally challenged by competition from other regions of the world.


 * That will force Obama to bash NAFTA – turns case**
 * O~’Brien 8** (Dan, Senior Editor – Economic Intelligence Unit, "Our Vested Interest in a McCain Win", Sunday Business Post, 11-2, [], CMR)

Anti-globalisation sentiment is widespread in the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been AND North American Free Trade Agreement. Obama may not be able to resist.


 * Turn – Maquiladoras:**


 * A. Expanded border crossings cause Maquiladora revival**


 * Paley 2013**

Dawn Paley is a journalist from Vancouver, BC (Coast Salish territories). She~’s written for magazines and newspapers including the The Guardian, Vancouver Sun, The Globe and Mail, BC Business Magazine, and The Nation. In 2010, Dawn completed her Masters in Journalism at the University of British Columbia. "A Rough Guide to Obama~’s Mexico Visit" Americas Program of the Center for International Policy 5/2/13 []

There~’s a demand from the corporate sector to build new border crossings and expand existing AND the US and other corporations with operations along the US/Mexico border.


 * B. Maquiladoras hurt the Mexican economy – cause wage stagnation and concentration of wealth**


 * Diederich 2012**

PhillippeDiederich is a freelance writer, photographer %26 educator. His work has appeared in the NYT, Time magazine, US News, and he has won numerous awards for his photography %26 writing. Born in the Dominican Republic %26 raised in Mexico City and Miami. "Do not be fooled by the ~’Maquiladora Economy~’" July 17, 2012 http://www.voxxi.com/do-not-be-fooled-by-maquiladora-economy/%23ixzz2UeLxV0Wh

Maquiladora is a Mexican word. It~’s the nickname that was given to the manufacturing AND goods manufactured within our own economy. And the gap is getting wider.

Energy
To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was AND an embarrassing disaster for Pemex, the latest in a string of them.
 * Plan increases oil dependence**
 * Krauss and Malkin ~’10** ("Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach" New York Times, Clifford Krauss and Elisabeth Malkin, March 8, 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/business/global/09pemex.html?pagewanted=all%26_r=0)


 * That kills renewables**
 * CBO, 2012** (Congressional Budget Office, "Energy Security in the United States", May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S. AND the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38 Leahy, ~’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, "Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts", Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)
 * Renewables solve warming**

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting AND future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.


 * Extinction**
 * Speth 2008** [James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic AND and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.

Aimee, "Busting the Myth of Energy Independence", Aug 28, [], CMR
 * Zero risk the plan solve North American energy independence or vulnerability to foreign sources**
 * Duffy 12**

The global marketplace ¶ Even if we were to accept these three assumptions, there AND likelihood that we will continue to turn to foreign sources in the future.


 * Energy independence won~’t solve US power or vulnerability**
 * O~’Sullivan 13** (Meghan, professor at Harvard University~’s Kennedy School of Government and former deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration, ~’Energy Independence~’ Alone Won~’t Boost U.S. Power, Feb 14, [], CMR)

Still, despite all this good news, the U.S. energy boom AND it was when Uncle Sam secured much of its oil from Saudi Arabia.

Jeff, "American Energy Independence Might Not Change Things Much", Feb 20, [], CMR
 * Energy security won~’t alter U.S. foreign policy – multiple alt causes constrain the U.S. and ensure our involvement overseas**
 * Myhre 13** – graduate of the University of Colorado where he double majored in history and international affairs, PhD at the London School of Economics in international relations

Thanks to fracking and the oil rush in North Dakota, many analysts predict energy AND the case, but after 40 years, the situation is more complicated.