GMP+Nathan+and+Kanian

=Aff= =toc= =ROUND 1=

Plan

 * The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American oil companies to participate in the development of Cuba~’s energy resources.**

First, Solvency
Jonathan **Benjamin-Alvadaro** (PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association) **2010** "Cuba~’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation") Oil exploration is an inherently risky enterprise; there are always trade-offs between AND tangible benefits for the people of Cuba, it neighbors, and beyond.
 * The plan is key to US-Cuban energy cooperation—-solves overall relations and regional stability. Failure to act allows other international actors to get involved.**

Jonathan **Benjamin-Alvadaro** (PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association) **2006** "The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University," http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face AND, trust and cooperation in this ¶ critical issue area across the region.
 * Cuba will say yes to US ventures – they prefer US assistance due to technological lead. Plan is a catalyst to the normalization of US-Cuban relations and overall regional stability**

Next is environment
Melissa **Bert** (a military fellow (U.S. Coast Guard) at the Council on Foreign Relations) **and** Blake **Clayton** (fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations) **2012** "Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill", http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515 The imminent drilling of Cuba~’s first offshore oil well raises the prospect of a large AND the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba.
 * Offshore oil drilling in the Cuban Basin is inevitable – Without US technical expertise catastrophic oil spills are inevitable**

Emily A. **Peterson** ¶ Daniel J. **Whittle**, J.D. ¶ **and** Douglas N. **Rader**, Ph.D ¶ December **2012** "Bridging the Gulf ¶ Finding Common Ground on Environmental and ¶ Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba", http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf If a spill were to occur in Cuban waters, marine and coastal resources of AND ability to support the fisheries and marine life that ¶ depend on them.
 * Cuban oil spill will crush marine coastal life throughout Cuba, Florida coastlines, and the Gulf of Mexico – Unique coral reefs and mangroves will be destroyed**

Robin Kundis **Craig** (Associate Prof Law, Indiana U School Law) **2003** Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they AND kill ourselves, and we will take most of the biosphere with us.
 * Collapse of the coral reef ecosystem collapses the biosphere**

Next is Economy
Stephen **Keppel 3/16** "What Chávez~’s Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S." http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-means-cuba-venezuela-us/story?id=18669003) Upon hearing news of the death of Hugo Chávez, scores of Venezuelans gathered in AND Chávez and may not be able to maintain popularity if things get tougher.
 * Cuban oil dependence on Venezuela is unsustainable—-Venezuela will cut off supplies**

If Cuba~’s suspected but yet undiscovered hydrocarbon reserves are proven real, it will take AND from the guidance of a variety of partners, including the United States.
 * The plan solves Cuban dependence on Venezuela – key to economic and political reforms that will endure Cuban stability**
 * Pinon 11** – Jorge R. Piñón is a visiting research fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center~’s Cuban Research Institute at FIU. Spring 2011, "Why the United States and Cuba Collaborate (and What Could Happen If They Don~’t)" casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2157/1306356964_Hemisphere_Vol._20.pdf

Tim **Gorrell** (Lieutenant Colonel) **2005** "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074) Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba~’s AND in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
 * Cuban instability collapse causes Latin American instability, creates terrorist hubs throughout the Caribbean, and causing a refugee crisis**

Anthony T. **Bryan** (director of the North-South Center~’s Caribbean Program) 10-21-**2001**. CFR, Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation, p.
 * Caribbean terrorism leads to attack on the US—-they~’ll use bioweapons**

http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and%20_homeland_%20security.html) Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the AND else to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.

Jason **Matheny** (Jason is a research associate at Oxford University~’s Future of Humanity Institute. He previously worked at the Center for Biosecurity and holds an MBA from Duke University) **2007** "Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction," Risk Analysis Vol. 27, No. 5, http://users.physics.harvard.edu/wilson/pmpmta/Mahoney_extinction.pdf Of current extinction risks, the most severe may be bioterrorism. The knowledge needed AND to respond to pandemics (Lam, Franco, %26 Shuler, 2006).
 * Risk of bioterror is high—-extinction**

Anders **Sandberg** (is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. Ćirković, senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro) 9/8/**2008**, "How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,[] The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones. AND may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore~’s Law.
 * Bioterror leads to extinction**

Over the past several years, maritime attacks have become more violent, more frequent AND an audience as possible, LNG tankers could be their perfect mass casualty weapon
 * Caribbean terrorists target LNG tankers – Probability is high due to American reliance on LNG**
 * Kelshall 4** (Candyce Kelshall, 11/15/04 (Director of Bluewater Defence and Security Ltd, Radical Islam and LNG in Trinidad and Tobago, [])

Consequences of an Attack Despite van der Linde~’s and other warnings, and the examples AND 775 mph from the explosion zone, is rained on citizens from above.
 * LNG terrorism will cause an explosion larger than Hiroshima – studies prove**
 * Husick and Gale 5** (Lawrence A. Husick and Stephen Gale, 2005 (Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute~’s Center on Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism, and Homeland Security. Stephen Gale, Ph.D., is co-chair of FPRI~’s Center on Terrorism, Planning a Sea-borne Terrorist Attack, [])

Next is Impact Framing
[Doug, US Navy Lieutenant, "Now Hear This – Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over", May, 5/2012 [Lieutenant, US Navy, "", US Naval Institute, []] In addition to geopolitical and diplomacy issues, globalization continues to transform the world. AND a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable.
 * No great power war – interdependence, democracy, deterrence**
 * Robb 2012**

[Sir Michael, visiting professor at King~’s College London, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and former senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, "Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects," Oxford University Press] One special form of miscalculation appeared sporadically in the speculations of academic commentators, though AND if necessary—that there was no misinterpretation of its conventionally armed launch. (Prof of History, Pennsylvania (Marc, The "Accidental War" Question, http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/inadv(1).pdf) The second point has to do with how much risk there really is in situations AND the system to keep relatively minor provocations from leading directly to general war.
 * Miscalc is impossible**
 * Quinlan 2009**
 * Intervening actions check escalation**
 * Trachtenberg 2000**

Socol 2011 Yehoshua(Ph.D.), an inter-disciplinary physicist, is an expert in electro-optics, high-energy physics and applications, and material science and Moshe Yanovskiy, Jan 2,"Nuclear Proliferation and Democracy", http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/nuclear_proliferation_and_demo.html, CMR Nuclear proliferation should no longer be treated as an unthinkable nightmare; it is likely AND reality will most probably contain fewer nuclear-possessing states than the former.
 * Nuclear war doesn~’t cause extinction**

=Round 3 1AC= Same as Round 1

=Round 5 1AC=

Plan
The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American oil companies to participate in the development of Cuba~’s energy resources.

First, Solvency
The plan is key to US-Cuban energy cooperation—-solves overall relations and regional stability. Failure to act allows other international actors to get involved. Jonathan **Benjamin-Alvadaro** (PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association) **2010** "Cuba~’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation") Oil exploration is an inherently risky enterprise; there are always trade-offs between AND tangible benefits for the people of Cuba, it neighbors, and beyond.

Cuba will say yes to US ventures – they prefer US assistance due to technological lead. Plan is a catalyst to the normalization of US-Cuban relations and overall regional stability Jonathan **Benjamin-Alvadaro** (PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association) **2006** "The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University," http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face AND, trust and cooperation in this ¶ critical issue area across the region.

Next is China
Now is the time to engage Cuba – recent Cuban economic reforms are on the brink, provide unique opportunity for engagement Ted **Piccone** (Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Foreign Policy) **3/18**/2013 "Time to bet on Cuba", http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/18-cuba-piccone Cuba~’s efforts to "update" its socialist system through a series of economic reforms AND and extend that outstretched hand he so eloquently promised just four years ago.

As Cuba open up market for offshore drilling China will enter the market IF the US does not – plan key to open the US-Cuban oil market Relations between the United States and Cuba have been stuck since the United States imposed AND signals that the timing is ripe for a new diplomatic agenda with Cuba.
 * Boston Globe 2/9** ("Cuba~’s reforms pave way for new US policy, too", 2013, http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2013/02/09/cuba-reform-create-opportunity-drag-policy-into-century/xER2NTTXGsxdLej0miHwFM/story.html)

The plan critical for US influence in Latin America and prevents Chinese expansion Jonathan **Benjamin-Alvadaro** (PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association) **2006** "The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University," http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf) In the period since the announcement that it had discovered offshore oil reserves off of AND but have well-served the ¶ commercial interests of all parties involved.

US influence in the region key to crowd out China Alan **Dowd** (Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation) **2012** "Crisis in the America~’s," http://www.ascfusa.org/content_pages/view/crisisinamericas) Focused on military operations in the Middle East, nuclear threats in Iran and North AND
 * There is room for only one great power in the Western Hemisphere.

Chinese stronghold in Latin America will trigger a nationalistic land grab for Taiwan Robbie **Fergusson** (Researcher at Royal Society for the Arts, Former Conference %26 Research Assistant at Security Watch) **2012** "The Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine," http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/does-chinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/) Taiwan – domestic, or foreign policy?¶ China~’s goals in the region amount to AND the PRC to conclude a settlement on Taiwan, perhaps by force.

Taiwan crisis is likely this year—-draws in the U.S. Michael **Mazza 1-3**, research fellow in foreign and defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute, 1/3/13, "Four Surprises That Could Rock Asia in 2013," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/03/four_surprises_that_could_rock_asia_in_2012?page=full Since President Ma Ying-jeou came to power in 2008, Taipei and Beijing AND ally — could throw U.S.-China relations into a tailspin.

Taiwan escalates and goes nuclear – defense does not assume miscalculation William **Lowther 3-16**, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3/16/13, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," [] Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

Next is Economy
Cuban oil dependence on Venezuela is unsustainable—-Venezuela will cut off supplies Stephen **Keppel 3/16** "What Chávez~’s Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S." http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-means-cuba-venezuela-us/story?id=18669003) Upon hearing news of the death of Hugo Chávez, scores of Venezuelans gathered in AND Chávez and may not be able to maintain popularity if things get tougher.

The plan solves Cuban dependence on Venezuela – key to economic and political reforms that will endure Cuban stability If Cuba~’s suspected but yet undiscovered hydrocarbon reserves are proven real, it will take AND from the guidance of a variety of partners, including the United States.
 * Pinon 11** – Jorge R. Piñón is a visiting research fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center~’s Cuban Research Institute at FIU. Spring 2011, "Why the United States and Cuba Collaborate (and What Could Happen If They Don~’t)" casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2157/1306356964_Hemisphere_Vol._20.pdf

Cuban instability collapse causes Latin American instability, creates terrorist hubs throughout the Caribbean, and causing a refugee crisis Tim **Gorrell** (Lieutenant Colonel) **2005** "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074) Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba~’s AND in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Caribbean terrorism leads to attack on the US—-they~’ll use bioweapons Anthony T. **Bryan** (director of the North-South Center~’s Caribbean Program) 10-21-**2001**. CFR, Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation, p.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and%20_homeland_%20security.html) Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the AND else to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.

Risk of bioterror is high—-extinction Jason **Matheny** (Jason is a research associate at Oxford University~’s Future of Humanity Institute. He previously worked at the Center for Biosecurity and holds an MBA from Duke University) **2007** "Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction," Risk Analysis Vol. 27, No. 5, http://users.physics.harvard.edu/wilson/pmpmta/Mahoney_extinction.pdf Of current extinction risks, the most severe may be bioterrorism. The knowledge needed AND to respond to pandemics (Lam, Franco, %26 Shuler, 2006).

Bioterror leads to extinction Anders **Sandberg** (is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. Ćirković, senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro) 9/8/**2008**, "How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,[] The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones. AND may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore~’s Law.

Refugee crises divert Coast Guard resources—-they gut mission effectiveness Margaret D. **Stock** (Associate Professor, Department of Social Sciences, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York and Lieutenant Colonel, Military Police Corps, United States Army Reserve) **2001**, "National Security and Immigration Policy: Reclaiming Terms, Measuring Success, and Setting Priorities" http://www.aclu.org/files/fbimappingfoia/20111110/ACLURM002826.pdf 7 Fed. Reg. 68924 (Nov. 13, 2002) ("A AND diverting valuable Coast Guard and DOJ resources from counterterrorism and homeland security responsibilities.")

Coast Guard capabilities are key to naval power projection Scott **Decker** (LT CMNDER USCG) Feb **2001** The coast guard is capable of conducting and leading expeditionary harbor defense/port security and Harbor approach defense operations, http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA389731 .. .From the Sea touches on this, identifying sealift as a key enabler AND S power projection capabilities, and freeing up additional combatants for offensive use.

Naval power independently solves great power war James T. **Conway** (General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard) **2007** "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers AND and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Studies prove the effectiveness of US hegemony Thomas P.M. **Barnett** (Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense) March 7 **2011** "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of AND in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come.

Perception of decline causes US lashout – triggers hegemonic wars Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for AND the period prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650
 * Goldstein** (Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania) **2007** "Power transitions, institutions, and China~’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 %26 5 August 2007, pages 639 – 682

=Quarterfinals=

The plan is key to US-Cuban energy cooperation—-solves overall relations and regional stability. Failure to act allows other international actors to get involved.
Jonathan **Benjamin-Alvadaro **(PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association) **2010** "Cuba~’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation") Oil exploration is an inherently risky enterprise; there are always trade-offs between AND tangible benefits for the people of Cuba, it neighbors, and beyond.

Cuba will say yes to US ventures – they prefer US assistance due to technological lead. Plan is a catalyst to the normalization of US-Cuban relations and overall regional stability
Jonathan **Benjamin-Alvadaro **(PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association) **2006** "The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University," http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf) Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face AND, trust and cooperation in this ¶ critical issue area across the region.

Offshore oil drilling in the Cuban Basin is inevitable – Without US technical expertise catastrophic oil spills are inevitable
Melissa **Bert** (a military fellow (U.S. Coast Guard) at the Council on Foreign Relations) **and** Blake **Clayton** (fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations) **2012** "Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill", http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515 The imminent drilling of Cuba~’s first offshore oil well raises the prospect of a large AND the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba.

Cuban oil spill will crush marine life - Unique coral reefs will be destroyed
Emily A. **Peterson** ¶ Daniel J. **Whittle**, J.D. ¶ **and **Douglas N. **Rader**, Ph.D ¶ December **2012** "Bridging the Gulf ¶ Finding Common Ground on Environmental and ¶ Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba", http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf If a spill were to occur in Cuban waters, marine and coastal resources of AND ability to support the fisheries and marine life that ¶ depend on them.

Collapse of the coral reef ecosystem collapses the biosphere
Robin Kundis **Craig** (Associate Prof Law, Indiana U School Law) **2003** Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they AND kill ourselves, and we will take most of the biosphere with us.

Marine biodiversity is key to human survival
But surely the Athenians had it backward; it~’s the land that rests in the AND thirty-two are found in the oceans and just twelve on land.
 * Davidson 3** (Founder – Turtle House Foundation and Award-Winning Journalist, Fire in the Turtle House, p. 47-51)

Cuban oil dependence on Venezuela is unsustainable—-Venezuela will cut off supplies
Stephen **Keppel 3/16** "What Chávez~’s Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S." http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-means-cuba-venezuela-us/story?id=18669003) Upon hearing news of the death of Hugo Chávez, scores of Venezuelans gathered in AND Chávez and may not be able to maintain popularity if things get tougher.

The plan solves Cuban dependence on Venezuela – key to economic and political reforms that will endure Cuban stability
If Cuba~’s suspected but yet undiscovered hydrocarbon reserves are proven real, it will take AND from the guidance of a variety of partners, including the United States.
 * Pinon 11** – Jorge R. Piñón is a visiting research fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center~’s Cuban Research Institute at FIU. Spring 2011, "Why the United States and Cuba Collaborate (and What Could Happen If They Don~’t)" casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2157/1306356964_Hemisphere_Vol._20.pdf

Cuban instability collapse causes Latin American instability, causing a refugee crisis
Tim **Gorrell** (Lieutenant Colonel) **2005** "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074) Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba~’s AND in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Refugee crises divert Coast Guard resources—-they gut mission effectiveness
Margaret D. **Stock** (Associate Professor, Department of Social Sciences, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York and Lieutenant Colonel, Military Police Corps, United States Army Reserve) **2001**, "National Security and Immigration Policy: Reclaiming Terms, Measuring Success, and Setting Priorities" http://www.aclu.org/files/fbimappingfoia/20111110/ACLURM002826.pdf 7 Fed. Reg. 68924 (Nov. 13, 2002) ("A AND diverting valuable Coast Guard and DOJ resources from counterterrorism and homeland security responsibilities.")

Coast Guard capabilities are key to naval power projection
Scott **Decker** (LT CMNDER USCG) Feb **2001** The coast guard is capable of conducting and leading expeditionary harbor defense/port security and Harbor approach defense operations, http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA389731 .. .From the Sea touches on this, identifying sealift as a key enabler AND S power projection capabilities, and freeing up additional combatants for offensive use.

Naval power independently solves great power war
James T. **Conway** (General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard) **2007** "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers AND and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Studies prove the effectiveness of US hegemony
Thomas P.M. **Barnett** (Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis %26 Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense) March 7 **2011** "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads," http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of AND in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come.

US heg key to human rights and the spread of democracies that lower the risk of war.
U.S. primacy—and the bandwagoning effect—has also given us AND is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic
 * Thayer 6** [Professor of Defense and Strategic Studies @ Missouri State University [Thayer, Bradley A., "In Defense of Primacy.," National Interest; Nov/Dec2006 Issue 86, p32-37]

The US makes democratic peace resilient and globalization sustainable – checks war
Andrew Mack and his colleagues at the Human Security Report Project are to be congratulated AND U.S. material and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong.
 * Owen ~’11** (John M. Owen Professor of Politics at University of Virginia PhD from Harvard "DON~’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY" Feb 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/

Alt to heg is massive great power wars
Yuhan **Zhang**, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Lin Shi, Columbia University, "America~’s Decline: A Harbinger of Conflcit and Rivalry," EAST ASIA FORUM, 1—22—**11**, [] This does not necessarily mean that the US is in systemic decline, but it AND forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Decline risks American lashout
G. John **Ikenberry**, Professor, International Relations, Princeton University, "Illusions of Empire," FOREIGN AFFAIRS, March/April 20**04**, ASP. Two implications follow from the United States~’ strange condition as "economically dependent and politically AND security and stability, not a hope that it will decline and disappear.

=Neg round 4=

1NC =

China~’s current economic strategy is allowing them to outpace US influence in Latin America – plan reverses that by offering a "NO STRINGS ATTACHED" economic policy
Increasingly, Latin American countries see China not as a rival but as a valuable AND . control, China offers up its loans come with few strings attached.
 * Gallagher 6/18**/13 – associate professor of international relations at Boston University (Kevin P, "Time for a U.S. Pivot to Latin America", [], CMR)

US-Sino competition risks open conflict
The challenge to Washington from China~’s presence in the region also extends beyond economics and AND represent potential assets in a global asymmetric warfare campaign against the United States.
 * Ellis 6/6**/13 – associate professor with the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies (R Evan, "China~’s New Backyard", [], CMR)

Global nuclear war
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate AND outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.
 * Hunkovic 9** (Lee J, American Military University, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", [Hunkovic.pdf-http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf])

Immigration reform will pass and it political capital is key
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=329931%26CategoryId=12395 WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama told Hispanic Democratic legislators on Wednesday that he will invest AND ," taking into account the opposition of many Republicans and other conservative groups. Drains capital – Backlash and hostage taking on unrelated priority legislation is empirically proven, likely in future and specifically true for Rubio – Cuba policy is totally unique – this is the best link card you will ever read LeoGrande, 12 William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf
 * Latin American Herald Tribune 7/16** "Obama Ready to Spend Political Capital on Immigration",

The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie AND rarely happen unless the urgency of the problem forces policymakers to take action. PC is key and finite Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, [], CMR) President Obama said Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term AND issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigration reform and gun control.

Expanding visas key to bioweapons security —- checks use of engineers pathogens Brumfiel 3 (Geoff, Physical Science Correspondent – Nature Magazine, "Russia~’s Bioweapons Labs: Still Out in the Cold", Science, 423, 6-23)

Collaborations between Western researchers and former Soviet bioweapons scientists could benefit both parties. But AND infancy," says Glenn Schweitzer, its coordinator at the US National Academies. Russian bioweapons cause extinction Maartens 6 (Dr. Willie, Ph.D. – Business Economics and Management, Mapping Reality: A Critical Perspective on Science and Religion, p. 251-252)

The scientists are the ~’high priests of today~’ and their beliefs, dogmas, AND survive an atomic explosion, is but one of the known deadly strains.

Algae Cp
====Text: The United States federal government should amend relevant definitions in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 to include algae-derived fuels eligible for all tax credits, subsidies, and price supports.====

Amending the RFS to include price supports for algae spurs green crude production. This provides clean renewable fuel – solves energy dependence and breaks the food/fuel link
Jason **Pyle** (Chief Executive Officer, Sapphire Energy) June 12 **2008** "Renewable Fuels And Food Prices," CQ Congressional Testimony First, let me thank the Committee for its leadership on alternative, renewable fuels AND crops, or other natural resources. Sapphire has turned sunlight into gasoline.

Solvency

 * ====Sugar ethanol industry development is super slow—-years before they have a chance to solve advantages====**
 * Specht 13**
 * [Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol~’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law %26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, **http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**]**

Like all new capitalist industries to emerge in the post-Castro era, whatever AND , which will slow the creation of a sugarcane-based ethanol industry.

Environment-Water
The world is rapidly running out of clean water. Some of the largest lakes AND Sadly, it is being drained at a rate that is almost unimaginable.
 * ====Ogallala Aquifer will dry up inevitably- alt causes ====**
 * Snyder, 13**
 * [Michael- B.S. in Commerce Univ. of Virginia, J.D. Univ. of Florida, "30 facts about the coming water crisis that will change the lives of every person on the planet," March 4th, 2013, http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/30-facts-about-the-coming-water-crisis-that-will-change-the-lives-of-every-person-on-the-planet]**

Sugarcane harvests cause aquatic pollution
MARTINELLI and FILOSO 2008 ( MARTINELLI, LUIZ: professor of ecology and geochemistry at the University of São Paulo in Brazil. the Ecological Society of America: "EXPANSION OF SUGARCANE ETHANOL PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL: ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES."  Texas A%26M University  .)

The negative effects of accelerated soil erosion include not only soil degradation and subsequent poor AND al. 1999a, 2004). A combination of both scenarios is likely.


 * ====Water impacts of sugarcane production severe====**
 * Moreira 7~’** Jose Roberto Moreira of the Brazilian Biofuel Research Center, "Water Use and Impacts Due Ethanol Production in Brazil", 2007, IWMI (International Water Management Institute) []

Although the type of impacts and the ways to mitigate them are similar for any AND shows the most important wastewater flows from ethanol production and their pollution potential).

Table 6 lists the most important environmental impacts associated with the production of ethanol. The list is not comprehensive, and there is no order of importance. Impacts listed in bold are the ones dealing with water use.

Table 6: Environmental impacts of ethanol production from sugar cane pollution of open water systems by industrial effluents; contamination of open water systems by AND for both workers and local population, due to agrochemicals; infrastructure over­use. Sources: RIMA Batatais 1990, 3.2 Agricultural Aspects, 3.2.1 Monoculture and Use of Agrochemicals and Fertilizers. The sugar cane production in Brazil involves huge areas of mono­culture. This represents a complete change in the agro­ecosystem, in particular a higher incidence of pests. Therefore, larger amounts of pesticides are being employed, resulting in increased environmental problems and a higher chance of population contamination and/or labour intoxication. These problems may have been minimized by installing smaller­capacity distilleries for smaller plantations. Economies of scale, however, would have been lost to a great extent. The agrochemicals used in sugarcane cultivation include fertilizer, herbicides, insecticides and fungicides. The required quantities of these chemicals are very site specific. Fertilizer requirements are also very dependent on the extend of vinasses application to the soil. Herbicides are used in quantities ranging from 500 to 3000 grams per ha. Insecticide use ranges from 15 to 1000 grams per ha (RIMA Batatais, 1990).

Sugarcane burning emits CO2 and NOx
Burning of sugarcane is a major issue (Fig. 7). Burning is an AND , just to be combusted into CO2 at the mill in any case.
 * NCGA 11** (NCGA, National Corn Growers Association, "Sugarcane as a Feedstock for Biofuels: An Analytical White Paper", National Corn Growers Association, an association that represents the interests of corn growers, 7/15/11, http://www.ncga.com/upload/files/documents/pdf/sugarcanewhitepaper092810.pdf//HZ)

Burning sugarcane produces 10 times the pollution of fossil fuels
Indur Goklany calculated that biofuels policies killed nearly 200,000 people in 2010 alone AND expense of biodiversity and health of plants and people? It seems so.
 * Nova 12** (Joanne Nova, a science presenter, writer, and speaker; author of The Skeptic~’s Handbook, "Sugar cane ethanol biofuel produces 10 times the pollution of gasoline and diesel", JoNova, a blog that focuses on the science, funding and politics related to anthropogenic global warming, 7/22/12, http://joannenova.com.au/2012/07/sugar-cane-ethanol-biofuel-produces-10-times-the-pollution-of-gasoline-and-diesel//HZ)

Sugarcane harvests cause soil degradation
MARTINELLI and FILOSO 2008 ( MARTINELLI, LUIZ: professor of ecology and geochemistry at the University of São Paulo in Brazil. the Ecological Society of America: "EXPANSION OF SUGARCANE ETHANOL PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL: ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES."  Texas A%26M University  .)

Among the major problems linked to sugarcane cultivation is soil degradation caused by erosion and AND Pissarra (2005) found that erosion varied from severe to extremely severe.

Mixing areas for pesticides used on sugar cane mills pollute the soil
HDOH December 2011 ( Hawaii Department of Health "Summary of Pesticide and Dioxin contamination associated with former sugarcane operations" Hazard evaluation and emergency response office, dec. 2011. http://www.hawaiidoh.org/tgm-guidance/Pesticide-Dioxin%20Summary%20(HDOH%20Dec%202011).pdf)

Contamination associated with former pesticide mixings areas by far represent the most significant ¶ concern AND ~’ahu (Sites %2328 and %2344 ¶ in summary tables).

Sugarcane production requires the destruction of native ecosystems which reduces soil carbon more than any other biofuel production

 * Davis, Masters and Delucia 09~’**¶ KRISTINA J. ANDERSON-TEIXEIRA*, SARAH C. DAVIS w, MICHAEL D. MASTERS*¶ and¶ EVAN H. DELUCIA Energy Biosciences Institute, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801, USA, wDepartment of Plant Biology,¶ University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801, USA, zInstitute of Genomic Biology, University of Illinois,¶ Urbana-Champaign, IL 61801, USA, GCB Bioenergy (2009) 1, 75–96, "Changes in soil organic carbon under biofuel crops" http://www.life.illinois.edu/delucia/Delucia%20Life%20Science/PUBLICATIONS/GCBB_1001.pdf-http://www.life.illinois.edu/delucia/Delucia Life Science/PUBLICATIONS/GCBB_1001.pdf , DA: 7/5/2013

Clearing uncultivated land triggered a SOC loss (Figs¶ 1, 3 and 4 AND SOC loss in corn in contrast to the gain by¶ perennial grasses.

China~’s current economic strategy is allowing them to outpace US influence in Latin America – plan reverses that by offering a "NO STRINGS ATTACHED" economic policy
Increasingly, Latin American countries see China not as a rival but as a valuable AND . control, China offers up its loans come with few strings attached.
 * Gallagher 6/18**/13 – associate professor of international relations at Boston University (Kevin P, "Time for a U.S. Pivot to Latin America", [], CMR)

US-Sino competition risks open conflict
The challenge to Washington from China~’s presence in the region also extends beyond economics and AND represent potential assets in a global asymmetric warfare campaign against the United States.
 * Ellis 6/6**/13 – associate professor with the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies (R Evan, "China~’s New Backyard", [], CMR)

Global nuclear war
A war between China, Taiwan and the United States has the potential to escalate AND outcome, therefore, other countries will not be considered in this study.
 * Hunkovic 9** (Lee J, American Military University, "The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America", [Hunkovic.pdf-http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/Hunkovic.pdf])

Obama Puching Immigration Reform
Justin **Sink 7/15** "Obama takes push for immigration reform to Spanish-language TV", http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/311065-obama-takes-push-for-immigration-reform-to-spanish-language-media President Obama will look to intensify pressure on House Republicans to act on immigration reform AND that he shouldn~’t be involved in that discussion is foolish," McCain added. Plans-Drains capital LeoGrande, 12 William M. LeoGrande School of Public Affairs American University, Professor of Government and a specialist in Latin American politics and U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, Professor LeoGrande has been a frequent adviser to government and private sector agencies, 12/18/12, http://www.american.edu/clals/upload/LeoGrande-Fresh-Start.pdf

The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie AND rarely happen unless the urgency of the problem forces policymakers to take action.

PC is key and finite Nakamura 2/20 (David, "In interview, Obama says he has a year to get stuff done", 2013, [], CMR) President Obama said Wednesday he~’s eager to move quickly to enact his second-term AND issues from tax reform, budget cuts, immigration reform and gun control.

Reform key to hegemony – biggest, quickest internal link

 * Kliman ~’10** – visiting fellow at the Center for a New American Security [Daniel, "Immigration and American Power", May 28, []] CR

President Obama~’s National Security Strategy released on Thursday has launched the opening salvo in a AND well, renewing American power starts with welcoming foreign talent to America~’s shore.

Heg stops Extinction
Thomas P.M. **Barnett**, chief analyst, Wikistrat, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S. and Globalization, at Crossroads," WORLD POLITICS REVIEW, 3—7—**11**, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads-http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we stand at a crossroads AND the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

Expanding globalization to Cuba is part of an imperial strategy to displace revolutionary potential in Cuba. The outcome of the expansion of globalization is environmental destruction and inequality.
(Dr. Susan Bliss: Director of Global Education, 7/5/2005, "Sustainability of Modern Cuba~’s post revolution globalisation process",) Globalisation is not a new phenomenon in Cuba, evolving from the 16th century with AND are ~’free and fair~’, equitably structured and immune from corporate power.
 * Bliss 2005**

Capitalism justifies endless exploitation. The economic imbalances of societies are at the heart of environmental destruction and warfare.
(Mark Carey, assistant professor of history at Washington and Lee University where he teaches Latin American and environmental history. He won the 2008 ¶ Leopold-Hidy Prize for his article, "The History of Ice: How Glaciers Became an ¶ Endangered Species (Environmental History, July 2007), April 2009, "Latin American Environmental History: Current Trends, Interdisciplinary Insights, and¶ Future Directions", Jstor, 7/6/13 SS, http://www.jstor.org/stable/40608469) DISASTER SCHOLARS ARE AMONG the most prominent to blur nature-culture ¶ dichotomies, AND fundamentals ¶ of social history- inherent in past human-environment interactions.
 * Carey 09**

====Our alternative is to refuse the logic of neoliberal expansion. This is a fracturing of the logic of economic singularity of neoliberal expansion by recognizing the possibility for other forms of noncapitalist economy – this refusal is competitive as it substantiates a material rejection of US economic inevitability onto the rest of the world==== [Boaventura de Sousa, professor of sociology, scho of economics, university of Coimbra, distinguished legal scholar law school, university of Wisconsin-madison, "the world social forum: a user~’s manual, http://www.ces.uc.pt/bss/documentos/fsm_eng.pdf t he ecology of productivities. Finally, in the domain of the fifth logic AND de-producing. Reconstruction is comprised of the five ecologies mentioned above.
 * Santos 2004**

Plan causes massive investment in Cuban Oil
Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face AND confidence, trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region.
 * Benjamin-Alvadaro 6** (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, "The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special," http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)

That kills renewable energy

 * CBO, 2012** (Congressional Budget Office, "Energy Security in the United States", May, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-09-EnergySecurity.pdf)

Even if world oil prices declined as a result of increased U.S. AND the vulnerability of most consumers to disruptions in oil markets largely unchanged.38 Renewables solve warming Leahy, ~’11 (Stephen, Independent environmental journalist for 16 years, "Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts", Feb 21, http://www.countercurrents.org/leahy210911.htm)

UXBRIDGE - Thawing permafrost is threatening to overwhelm attempts to keep the planet from getting AND future, but we must start now," Leape said in a statement.

Extinction

 * Speth 2008** [James, dean of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. Currently he serves the school as the Carl W. Knobloch, Jr. Dean and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor in the Practice of Environmental Policy, The Bridge @ the Edge of the World, pg. 26]

The possibility of abrupt climate change is linked to what may be the most problematic AND and the trip will exterminate a large fraction of species on the planet.

Inherent equality of all beings requires utilitiarianism
(David, Associate Professor of Philosophy at Bates College and Ph.D. from UM, "Kantian Consequentialism", p. 145-146) In the next section, I will defend this interpretation of the duty of beneficence AND equal consideration suggests that one may have to sacrifice some to save many.
 * Cummiskey 1996**

Calculation is good, the only question is whether you use calculations to save the other, which we do. Their ethic only leads to cooptation.
Jacques Derrida, Directeur d~’Etudes at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in Paris, and Professor of Philosophy, French and Comparative Literature at the University of California, Irvine, 2002, Acts of Religion, p. 255-57 This excess of justice over law and calculation, this overflowing of the unpre­sentable over AND , even if his propositions on this subject remain quite obscure or traditional.

Niall **Ferguson** [MA, D.Phil., is Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a Senior Research Fellow at Jesus College, Oxford] IN "IMPERIAL DENIAL." WITH NONNA GORILOVSKAYA. MAY/JUNE **2004**. http ://www. globalpo I icy. org/empire/analvs is/2004/052 mperi al d en i al .htm)
 * ====If the US doesn~’t exercise imperial force others will and that is comparatively worse ====**

Well, it could be for a very short-time indeed. One of AND repression, more hardship, especially for the people of the Middle East.>

American imperialism is unique, generic criticism of past imperial powers isn~’t responsive- US empire promotes better quality of life
Michael **Ignatieff** [director of the Carr Center at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University] "THE AMERICAN EMPIRE (GET USED TO IT)." THE NEW YORK TIMES. JANUARY 6, **2003**. http://www.wehaitians.com/the%20american%20empire.html

America~’s empire is not like empires of times past, built on colonies, conquest AND Melville~’s words bears "the ark of the liberties of the world.~’

Imperialist policies towards Cuba aren~’t the problem- it~’s the Castro regime that strips Cubans of their basic freedoms
Mark **Finkelstein-http://newsbusters.org/users/mark-finkelstein** [Mark Finkelstein is a NewsBusters Senior Contributor]¶ May 01, **2007** ¶ Andrea Mitchell: Cuba~’s Only Major Problem is U.S. Embargo¶ []

There~’s really only one problem for Cuba: those yanqui imperialists and the embargo they AND the United States. Viva Fidel%21 Viva la Revolucion%21 Abajo los imperialistas